The Missile Defense Impasse

On the radar: An opening for cooperation; Reluctance on cooperation; Business is good for MDA; Turner and the budget walls; Glyn Davies’ new role; Preventative strikes and unintended consequences; and How low can the triad go.

October 20, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Tauscher invitation - “We welcome an opportunity to continue and expand the sharing of technical information on the EPAA with Russian experts on an interagency basis, to demonstrate what it can and cannot do,” said Under Secretary Ellen Tauscher this week at The Atlantic Council. http://owl.li/73vrR

--"As time goes on it gets harder (to wrap in Russia) because the aperture to join this system will close eventually," Tauscher said. "It's not an infinite opportunity." http://owl.li/73vzn

Moscow response - “Moscow responded coolly Wednesday to a U.S. invitation to monitor missile-defense flight tests, saying the gesture would not dispel its concerns that a planned NATO missile shield in Europe would compromise Russia's security,” reports Reuters.

--"We are being invited to monitor the realization of a plan that we see as creating a risk to our forces of deterrence," Lavrov told reporters when asked about the invitation. http://owl.li/73tPL

MDA Quote - “Unfortunately, in my business, the business is good,” said Lt. Gen. Patrick O’Reilly, Director of the Missile Defense Agency. “It’s very clear to me the intent of the department and the administration is to grow our missile defense capabilities—even through these austere times.” http://owl.li/73tSr

AEGIS production heating up - “As the U.S. Navy polishes the requirements for its proposed Aegis ballistic missile defense system upgrades, companies such as Lockheed Martin and Raytheon are cranking up production to support the combat system on the restarted DDG-51 Arleigh Burke destroyer line,” reports Aviation Week. http://owl.li/73tVJ

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Point of order on budget - Last week, Congressman Turner wrote a letter arguing that funds for nuclear weapons programs were shifted to water projects in the House and Senate FY12 Energy and Water Appropriations bills. “There’s no way to take money from water to weapons or vice versa under the Budget Control Act,” a Senate staffer told Global Security Newswire. “There is a hard wall between those two pots of money...To the notion that we’re taking money away from weapons: you just cannot do that.” http://owl.li/73tEw

The new North Korea envoy - “The new U.S. envoy on North Korea [Glyn Davies] is no stranger to nuclear diplomacy and finding ways to deal with prickly adversaries such as Iran. His new assignment, however, could be his toughest yet,” reports AP.

--“[Davies] is a good appointment for the North Korea job, as it’s a heck of a challenge,” said Olli Heinonen, former IAEA deputy director-general. “He’s a good communicator and willing to talk to adversaries,” said Heinonen. “He’s easygoing and fairly low-key but can be tough when he needs to be.” http://owl.li/73tH4

Quote - "We understand, the president understands that the greatest threat to global security is not necessarily two large powers going at each other with warheads but its terrorists getting their hands on the materials or improvising a device or somebody else's device and using that to create chaos," said NNSA Administrator Tom D’Agostino. http://owl.li/73tJU

Backgrounder: Efforts to Isolate Iran - “Washington is hoping to use the assassination plot to build international momentum to isolate Iran and put pressure on the regime to rethink its controversial nuclear program, which may include new sanctions,” writes CFR’s Jayshree Bajoria. The new analysis brief traces the efforts and experts’ opinions on the advisability of sanctions. http://owl.li/73tMQ

”Pandora’s Box” of preventive strikes - Air strikes against nuclear facilities can have unintended consequences, including forcing nuclear weapons program underground and creating a false sense of security in the outside world. An analysis from Malfrid Braut-Hegghammer at Harvard’s Kennedy School. http://owl.li/73uOG

A Triad at Low Numbers? - There are still a lot of unanswered question when it comes to maintaining the nuclear triad, writes Kingston Reif at Nukes of Hazard. Among the most important: Is it possible to sustain expertise and a motivated work force with fewer nuclear weapons? And what are the strategic implications of a triad at lower levels? http://owl.li/73vo1