Experts Urge Caution on Iran Plot

On the radar: Slavin, Reidel, Katzman, and Nasr on the plot; The effect on US diplomacy; How it played in op-eds; Bell rings for round one of nuclear budget fight; Standard BMD advocate arguments; Cartwright on zero; and Reykjavik 25 years on.

October 13, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Expert views on the Iran plot - “U.S. experts on Iranian spy agencies and tradecraft say the hare-brained scheme described in the Justice Department complaint does not resemble the operations of the Quds Force, the external arm of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards,” reports Barbara Slavin.

--“Fishy, fishy, fishy,” said CIA veteran Bruce Reidel. "Nothing about this adds up," said Kenneth Katzman.

--"It is only with clarity of facts that the United States can make a convincing case for why Iran's anti- American posture and violent tactics is not heroic bravado deserving of accolade, but a cynical gamble that endangers the whole region," wrote Vali Nasr. http://owl.li/6WaN3

U.S. policy toward Iran just got more complicated - “The row that has erupted in the wake of the U.S. accusations [about the plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador] may frustrate those seeking a rapid deal to prevent the risk of diplomatic tension turning to armed conflict,” writes Fredrik Dahl for Reuters.

--”In any case, Iran now faces a possible tightening of Western sanctions, in addition to four rounds of U.N. measures and separate U.S. and European punitive steps over its nuclear program in the last five years.” http://owl.li/6Wb7C

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How the Iran plot played in the op-eds -

--NYT: “The United States and its allies must use all possible diplomatic and economic pressures to isolate Tehran and block its nuclear ambitions....steely restraint and a dispassionate, effective response are needed. Not another shoot-first-and-ask-questions-later war.” http://owl.li/6Wbh1

--Wash Post: “The administration is rightly seeking to mobilize new multilateral action against Iran, including through the United Nations. But there are steps that the United States and close allies can take, such as directly sanctioning Iran’s central bank — a measure that already has considerable support in Congress.” http://owl.li/6Wbfs

--Gerecht in the WSJ: “The White House needs to respond militarily to this outrage.” http://owl.li/6WbdD

Markey gets specific on nuclear budget cuts - “Too much of the conversation is about defense spending in general and not specific and here we're going to provide the specifics of what … can be cut without endangering our security at all,” Representative Edward Markey (D-MA) said at a Capitol Hill news conference. Markey and 64 House members called on the supercommittee to find $200 billion in savings in the nuclear budget.

--Hopping into the debate, Rep. Michael Turner (R-OH) said, ”At a time when Russia and China are engaging in significant nuclear modernization programs and North Korea and Iran continue their illegal nuclear weapons programs, what Mr. Markey proposes amounts to unilateral disarmament of the US.” GSN reports on the back and forth http://owl.li/6Wb28

Turner’s watery objections - Turner and eight other HASC members also object to the FY12 Senate E&W appropriations bill, which trims NNSA’s weapons activities budget by 6% from the president’s request, but increased the budget for water programs. John Bennett has the story. http://owl.li/6Wb07

Quote - “At the end of the day, zero has to be the goal,” said Gen. James Cartwright at the Global Zero summit. http://owl.li/6Wb5k

Event: Transatlantic Missile Defense - The Atlantic Council’s annual conference on transatlantic missile defense features briefings by Lt. Gen. Patrick O'Reilly from the Missile Defense Agency and Undersecretary of State Ellen Tauscher, as well as two expert panels assessing progress to date and the future of transatlantic missile defense. Tuesday the 18th, 9-2:30. Event details and RSVP here: http://owl.li/6UZDx

Missile defense advocates - Missile defense plans face stiff challenges from the budget crunch and are running into technical limitations. This is eliciting interesting arguments from right-wing missile defense advocates. This week’s edition: Rebecca Heinrichs in The Weekly Standard argues that the prioritization of NATO missile defense plans over unproven national systems amounts to appeasing the Russians. http://owl.li/6Wb9Z

Reykjavik: a cautionary tale - “In the age of terrorism and in the absence of a mechanism for reliable international arms control and verification, the lessons of Reykjavik are cautionary,” argue Thomas Blanton and Svetlana Savranskaya in Arms Control Today. “However, they also allow for hope that leaders with vision who come from very different places on the political spectrum—Reagan and Gorbachev then, Obama today—can and will arrive at abolition as the only ultimate solution to nuclear danger” http://owl.li/6WaYu