Naval Commitments and NATO Missile Defense

On the radar: AEGIS basing in the Med; Triad tradeoffs; The Russia Caucus; Nork missiles going mobile; Pressuring Tehran from Vienna; Heinonen on Iran's slow progress; Google spots Indian enrichment plant; and The Minot snafu's effect on deterrence.

October 6, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

AEGIS forward deployed to Spain - ”The Navy will station four Aegis ships in Rota, Reuters reports, although it isn’t clear which ones or whether they’ll be cruisers or destroyers...Moving ships, crews and their families to the Continent — if all that’s in the works as part of this — will save money and wear from trans-Atlantic trips to and from from the East Coast, leaders hope,” writes Philip Ewing. http://owl.li/6Pfxl

--”Do you think it’s worth it as part of the long-term strategic commitment to Europe? Or is this the wrong kind of obligation to be taking on in the face of the coming build-down?” asks Ewing.

Panetta on AEGIS - “This announcement should send a very strong signal that the United States is still continuing to invest in this alliance, and that we are committed to our defense relationship with Europe even as we face growing budget constraints at home,” said Secretary Panetta. http://owl.li/6Pe9Q

More thinking needed on triad costs - Matt Leatherman at The Will and the Wallet recently asked then-Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Gary Roughead if he saw the program for the proposed new generation of subs scaling back to fit tightening Navy budgets and to reflect on the similar struggle the Air Force lost last year in its efforts to acquire a new bomber. Adm. Roughead gave a non-answer, but left clues on how the Navy might lobby the case for the new boomers.

--”With the Cold War over, our dynamic with China still delicate, an emphasis on arms control coming from the commander-in-chief, and receding resources for defense, the Pentagon’s civilian leadership needs to override the Services’ bureaucratic interests and start thinking about how to manage the Triad procurement plan as a whole,” writes Leatherman. http://owl.li/6PcU7

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House gets a Russia Caucus - Reps. Gregory Meeks and Dan Burton have started a new congressional caucus to increase engagement with Russia. "When you think about Russia, they are an important nation in an important part of the world. And we have to make sure we begin to work with them in a post-Cold War way," Meeks told Josh Rogin of The Cable.

--First policy targets for the caucus: Jackson-Vanik and Russia’ bid for WTO membership. http://owl.li/6PgcA

DPRK going road-mobile - Former-Secretary Robert Gates dropped another hint that North Korea is developing a road-mobile ICBM. Jeff Lewis at Arms Control Wonk picks up the hints and ballparks that the missile might end up being a modified Musudan. http://owl.li/6Pfuv

Pressure builds on Iran at the IAEA - “Experts on the Iranian nuclear programme are looking toward the IAEA's Nov. 17-18 board meeting in Vienna for new criticism of Tehran, including a possible finding that Iran has not complied with its obligations to be honest about alleged nuclear studies with a military dimension,” reports Barbara Slavin. http://owl.li/6PdnO

Iran’s slow nuclear progress - Iran is still years away from developing nuclear capabilities, said Olli Heinonen, former head of U.N. safeguards inspections. "Maybe by the end of next year they might have enough material to do it but then to turn it into weapon-grade level (in view of the low performance of its current IR-1 centrifuge machines) takes another half year at least." From Fredrik Dahl at Reuters. http://owl.li/6PevB

New Indian Uranium Facility? - Google Earth recently posted new images of India’s Rare Materials Plant which show new construction efforts - possibly of a new military uranium enrichment facility, reports ISIS. http://owl.li/6PdJD

Deterrence deficiencies at the NCO-level - A lot of structural changes happened to the Air Force nuclear mission after the 2007 incident when an Air Force crew mistakenly transported and lost track of a handful of nuclear missiles. While recent top-level structural changes to the nuclear mission “streamlined the effectiveness of US nuclear deterrence, Air Force doctrine still has failed to articulate its leadership requirements at the Non-Commissioned Officer and Company Grade Officer levels to successfully accomplish its mission,” writes 1st Lt. Darren Ruch for FAS. http://owl.li/6PgTt

--Friendly budget reminder: ”Today, the USAF allocates about 23,000 personnel and $5.2B for nuclear deterrence operations, just over 3% of the FY12 USAF budget.” http://owl.li/6PdKS

Briefing: Iran’s Nuclear Program -Next Wednesday, October 12th, The Federation of American Scientists hosts a briefing on Enhanced Safeguards for Iran's Nuclear Program with Charles Ferguson and Ali Vaez. Event details and RSVP here: http://owl.li/6OCKJ