Iran’s Centrifuge Program Capped

On the radar: Tehran lacks key materials, components; Neither underestimating nor over-hyping Iran; WH rolls out NATO missile plans (not costs); Welcome Philip Yun; Two urgent treaties; Miscounting our missiles; Scaled nuclear tests; Korean envoys to meet; and The trouble of jailing nuclear smugglers.

September 16, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

”Iran has run into a brick wall” - UN Security Council resolutions and effective implementation of sanctions have "likely capped the number of IR-1 centrifuges [Iran] can build,” said David Albright - one of the leading authorities on Iran’s nuclear program.

--”You have actually seen a decrease in the number of IR-1 centrifuges in Natanz over the past year. This may also have prevented Iran from building thousands of advanced centrifuges,” added Albright. Listen to the full brief along with expert analysis from Barbara Slavin, Olli Heinonen and Paul Pillar at the Atlantic Council: http://ow.ly/6wiWD

How reliable is our intelligence on Iran’s nuclear program? - “Not bad,” answered Barbara Slavin at the launch of the latest report of the Iran Task Force. Given improvements in US intelligence assets and the intelligence process since the disastrous intel on WMD in Iraq, “there is less of a chance of underestimating or over-hyping the Iran threat.” The full report offers recommendations for moving forward with targeted sanctions and diplomacy (PDF). http://ow.ly/6wiAR

--Ali Gharib also reported the event for IPS News. http://ow.ly/6wmWa

Tweeting the event - @cirincione: “Barbara Slavin warns of "Chicken Littles" who have predicted Iranian bomb every year for past 15 years. But real dangers remain.”

Implementing the EPAA - The White House released a fact sheet noting its progress at implementing its four phases for missile defenses in Europe. From the bullet points: the first Aegis ship is already in the Med, Turkey agreed to host a radar, and Romania and Poland have agreed to host interceptors.

--”Effective cooperation with Russia will enhance the overall effectiveness and efficiency of our combined territorial missile defenses, and at the same time provide both NATO and Russia with greater security.” http://ow.ly/6wjyc

But can we afford it? - “Despite the obligatory mention of ‘cost effectiveness’ [in the White House fact sheet on European missile defenses], there is no mention here of the need to wait for DoD’s ‘comprehensive strategic review,’ or concessions to ‘tough fiscal realities,’ or any other code for ‘we might not do this because of budget cuts,’” writes Philip Ewing. http://ow.ly/6wkqK

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Meet Philip Yun - Ploughshares Fund’s new Executive Director and Chief Operating Officer. Yun has worked in government, business, policy and academia. He’s been on the board of Ploughshares for several years and is a well-known Asia expert. To get to know him better, read our interview with him here.

Two treaties. No time to wait. - To help prevent nuclear terrorism, the US needs to ratify two treaties - the Amendment to the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material and the International Convention on the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism. “With the 2012 summit a mere six months away, the United States is running out of time to make good on its pledge to ratify them,” write Miles Pomper and Kingston Reif in The Bulletin. http://ow.ly/6vJVg

One missile, two missile... - What’s the difference between an assembled ICBM, one that’s disassembled, and a spare? Nothing, according to the Air Force. Because their counting system doesn’t distinguish between them, they overstate the number of assembled ICBMs by 105, according to a GAO report summarized by Tony Cappacio. http://ow.ly/6wjWH

The future for nuclear tests? - Every year, the U.S. conducts hydrodynamic experiments designed to mimic the first stages of a nuclear explosion. Now NNSA is interested in “scaling” up these experiments to more closely resemble actual warhead designs. Details are still unclear, which is why Congress has held off on funding until an independent study assesses the risks and benefits of such experiments. SSMP analysis part III of IV from Nick Roth, Hans Kristensen, and Stephen Young. http://ow.ly/6wg9G

North and South in Beijing - Envoys from North and South Korea plan to meet next week in Beijing in the latest sign of efforts to restart long-stalled nuclear negotiations with the North. http://ow.ly/6wl9h

Crime with No Punishment? - Prosecuting nuclear smugglers is an uphill battle, “hampered by disputes between governments, the reluctance of intelligence agencies to hand over sensitive evidence to prosecutors and a lack of strong export-control laws,” writes Eben Harrel in TIME. “In many places, smuggling technology related to the development of nuclear weapons is not even illegal.” http://ow.ly/6wkun

Iran’s Nuclear Program: Status and Prospects - An expert panel featuring Adm. Joe Sestak, Mark Fitzpatrick, Greg Thielmann, and Daryl Kimball discusses options for addressing Iran’s nuclear program. The Arms Control Association hosts the event next Monday. Details and RSVP here: http://ow.ly/6wjy6