A Better Option with Iran

On the radar: Pressure and Diplomacy with Iran; NNSA budgets on the rise; Hikers to be released; Food aid for the land of no good options; Syria opening to IAEA inspections; Why the US didn’t strike the Syria site; Talking with Iran after Libya; and losing track of 16,000 tons of fissile materials.

September 13, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

A way forward on Iran - A recent Washington Post editorial asserted that U.S. strategy on Iran is drifting and sanctions are falling short of expectations. While a more coherent strategy may be needed, “time still exists to pursue a negotiated solution,” argues Laicie Olson in a letter to the editor. 

--”The United States should continue its efforts to slow Iran’s program and maintain international pressure on Iran, while keeping the possibility open for a negotiated solution that establishes the inspections and transparency necessary to best detect and deter any eventual move to build a weapon,” Olson writes. http://ow.ly/6sZjv

Nuclear Plan Conflicts with New Budget Realities - NNSA plans to spend $88 billion on nuclear weapons from FY12-FY21, according to the FY 2012 Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan. This 10% increase over the FY11 plan, which was itself a 10% increase over the previous year, will be hard to sell in the new budget environment - especially as the nuclear weapons stockpile declines. Nickolas Roth, Hans M. Kristensen and Stephen Young analyze the latest Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan. http://ow.ly/6spbP

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Iran to release hikers - A week after the offer to allow IAEA inspectors temporary access to their nuclear facilities in exchange for lifting sanctions, Iran took another positive step in announcing that two Americans held on espionage charges for over two years will be released. http://ow.ly/6t461

Early Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: “NNSA report to Congress on status of MOX program is 6 months late. Must mean program is on time/budget, right? Oh wait. http://bit.ly/r1X8kE”

The hardest country to give food aid - North Korea’s foreign policies are as deplorable its domestic mismanagement, and it is politically difficult to give the North food aid. However, given the dire humanitarian situation in the North, it may be time to set aside political considerations and render food relief to a starving people, argues Richard Weitz in The Diplomat.

--The United States should “offer food assistance as a means of jump starting a dialogue with Pyongyang that eventually needs to extend to security issues,” writes Weitz. In the process, the US, South Korea and other donors “should insist on more demanding conditions for the provision of longer-term development assistance.” http://ow.ly/6sZMD

Syria opening to IAEA - In a letter to the IAEA, Syria said it is prepared “to agree on an action plan to resolve outstanding issues” with the Dair Alzour facility (the suspected nuclear reactor site bombed by Israel in 2007). This comes as Syria faces increasing internal strife and three months after the IAEA referred Syria to the Security Council. Fredrik Dahl reports. http://ow.ly/6sZFF

”No core/ No war” - Dick Cheney’s memoir recounts a meeting in which he was the lone voice recommending the US to strike on Syria’s clandestine nuclear site in 2007. Bob Woodward recently reported the reason why Cheney was the lone supporter: the intelligence was weak that the reactors were part of a broader nuclear weapons program. Jeffrey Lewis at Arms Control Wonk adds some skepticism to that intelligence process and asks if there is still some information missing from the public record. http://ow.ly/6t2Xc

Explaining Libya to Iran - The Libya intervention, eight years after Gadhafi gave up his nuclear program, highlights an inherent contradiction between the Right to Protect principle and offering security guarantees in exchange for abandoning nuclear ambitions. Moving forward with Iran, the only option is to make R2P an explicit part of negotiations, argues Alex Bollfrass in World Politics Review. http://ow.ly/6sZ44

Missing: Kilograms of Nuclear Weapons Material - A recent GAO report found that the US cannot account for over 16,000 kilograms of weapons-grade fissile materials provided to countries with civilian nuclear programs - and that’s just for “friendly” countries like France and Taiwan. NNSA insists that the report is flawed. Adam Weinstein reports. http://ow.ly/6t081