On the radar: Recess, not rupture, for US-Russia; Medvedev’s missile defense blusters; Lessons from Iraq; More sanctions considered; Iran’s sanctions considerations; UK embassy stormed; Iranian base exploded; The future of the MTCR; and Your very own uranium marbles.

November 29, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Reset Recess - “Dmitri Medvedev’s warning last week of measures Russia will take if the United States and NATO continue with their missile-defense program in Europe, while sounding tough, is not the end of the U.S.-Russian reset,” writes Dmitri Trenin in the New York Times. “It is more of a pre-election recess of Russian-American diplomacy.”

--There is a catch, however: “Unless the U.S.-Russian diplomatic recess is used for serious homework and building channels for intense trust-building dialogue between Russia, on the one hand, and the U.S. and its allies on the other, mutual assured destruction, as during the Cold War, will remain the foundation of security in the Euro-Atlantic.” http://owl.li/7IBNq

Medvedev’s bluff - “Russia has threatened to start the operation of an early warning radar station in Kaliningrad. However, it is difficult to understand the logic of those who claim that a station designed to warn of enemy missiles flying toward Moscow can be considered a response to the deployment of a missile defense system in Europe designed to intercept enemy missiles.”

--“All of Medvedev’s statements have no relationship to any real military threat or to Russia’s current capabilities,” concludes The Moscow Times’ Alexander Golts. Medvedev is simply “listing everything that the Defense Ministry had already been planning in the fields of nuclear weapons and missile defense.” http://owl.li/7ICJt

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The Real Lesson of Iraq - “In the case of Iraq, fears of what was presumed to be hidden distracted analysts and decision-makers from the facts on the ground. In the case of Iran, facts on the ground suggest that the best course of action is to resist the temptation of pushing the red button.”

--”An Iranian nuclear test would entail further isolation from the international community, which Tehran could ill afford. Not striking against Iran would be the better containment policy.” Malfrid Braut-Hegghammer for the New York Times. http://owl.li/7IBpJ

US, EU consider sanctions - The US and EU said they will “consider additional measures given Iran's continued failure to abide by its international obligations," according to a joint statement issued Monday. EU leaders meet Thursday and are expected to approve sanctions against Iran’s petrochemical and financial sectors, like those enacted by the US, UK, and Canada last week. AFP reports. http://owl.li/7IBxM

UK embassy in Tehran stormed - “Hard-line Iranian students stormed the British diplomatic compounds in Tehran on Tuesday, bringing down the Union Jack flag and throwing documents from windows in scenes reminiscent of the anger against Western powers after the 1979 Islamic Revolution,” reports the Associated Press. http://owl.li/7IDkA

Iran’s sanctions calculations - “Iran regards its nuclear program as a source of power and prestige and tougher sanctions look unlikely to alter Tehran's cost-benefit analysis much despite the economic pain they cause,” writes Fredrik Dahl in Reuters.

-- “Deep mistrust of Western intentions and security concerns in a volatile region where the United States maintains a strong military presence could help explain Iran's resolve not to back down and curb nuclear work its foes fear has weapons aims.” http://owl.li/7IBWy

Iran blast images - ISIS has acquired commercial satellite images showing extensive damage at a military base in Iran from a Nov. 12 explosion.

--”ISIS learned that the blast occurred as Iran had achieved a major milestone in the development of a new missile. Iran was apparently performing a volatile procedure involving a missile engine at the site when the blast occurred.” http://owl.li/7IBGH (pdf)

Event - IISS hosts a panel discussion on the Future of the Missile Technology Control Regime next Monday, December 5th. Event details and RSVP here. http://owl.li/7IC0R

Uranium marbles - The top Science Geek Gift of 2011: glow-in-the-dark uranium marbles. "Definitely geeky, but non-geeks would also love them because they glow and have a risk factor appeal," one review says. http://owl.li/7IFd8