Intel Chief Talks Iran’s Capabilities, Decisions

On the radar: DNI Clapper and the IC’s new threat assessment; Budgeting for Valentines; Attacking Iran not likely to work; EASI on missile defense; Articulating the need for peaceful resolution; the Next round of sanctions; and Nuclear security in Indy.

January 31, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Worldwide Threat Assessment - DNI Clapper appeared before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence this morning to present the intel community’s worldwide threat assessment 2012. Iran is always a focal point in media responses to such reports.

Primary source - From the DNI’s report: “We assess Iran is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons, in part by developing various nuclear capabilities that better position it to produce such weapons should it choose to do so. We do not know, however, if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons.”

--”Iran’s technical advancement, particularly in uranium enrichment, strengthens our assessment that Iran has the scientific, technical, and industrial capacity to eventually produce nuclear weapons, making the central issue its political will to do so.”

--”We judge Iran’s nuclear decisionmaking is guided by a cost-benefit approach, which offers the international community opportunities to influence Tehran. Iranian leaders undoubtedly consider Iran’s security, prestige, and influence, as well as the international political and security environment when making decisions about its nuclear program.” (pdf) http://owl.li/8MIVC

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Budget timeline - HASC members will get a sneak peak at the 2013 defense budget request in a classified briefing this Thursday. The budget will be released to the public on February 13th, and Defense Secretary Panetta and JCS Chair Gen. Dempsey will testify before SASC on the 14th. Check back then for the hearing testimony and webcast. http://owl.li/8MINZ

Why attacking Iran won't stop the nukes - “The main reason attacking Iran is unwise is that military force is far less likely to delay proliferation than advocates of striking Iranian nuclear facilities acknowledge,” write Matthew Furhmann and Sarah Kreps in USA Today. The number and location of Iran’s nuclear facilities, the likelihood of clandestine facilities, and the fact that Tehran already knows how to enrich uranium, means that anything short of a sustained military campaign would not be a significant setback, the authors conclude. http://owl.li/8MItI

Questions for Clapper -The venerable Walter Pincus offers some questions for the DNI.

--Included: “Assuming that the Iranian leadership has yet to decide to produce a nuclear weapon, what event or issue does the intelligence community believe will trigger that step to be taken? If that decision is made, how long do you think it would take for the United States to learn about it?” From The Washington Post. http://owl.li/8MILI

Euro-Atlantic Security - Euro-Atlantic states need to focus on their region’s stability and security by creating “a functioning, inclusive Euro-Atlantic security community,” write Wolfgang Ischinger, Igor Ivanov and Sam Nunn in the IHT.

--Included recommendation: “Europe missile defense cooperation should be approached not simply as an answer to a potential intrinsic threat, but as a means of transforming the Russian-NATO/U.S. strategic relationship.” http://owl.li/8MIIv

The security argument against attacking Iran - “Leading security figures [in Israel] argue a war with Iran could lead to many casualties, devastate the economy and only postpone the development of an Iranian bomb by a year or two, a view that is shared by many respected U.S. officials and analysts,” writes Leon Hadar in The National Interest.

--”Obama needs to accentuate these arguments and stress his commitment to finding a peaceful resolution to the crisis, one that would secure both U.S. and Israeli interests.” http://owl.li/8MIFX

Tweet - @MicahZenko on the SSCI hearing: “Petraeus giving love to IAEA report as “authoritative open source document” for informing public on Iran nuclear pgm. What does IC do then?”

Sanctions draft bill - While the ink dries on the previous round of Iran sanctions, the Senate Banking Committee yesterday released a draft of the next round. The draft languages continues pressure on Iran’s energy sector and the Revolutionary Guards. AP has the story. http://owl.li/8MIy4

SWIFT sanctions - The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) is a Belgium-based cooperative that provides members with a secure network for members to exchange financial messages and transactional data. Several Iranian banks have access to the network. Supporters of sanctions on Iran say that should end. New editorial from The Wall Street Journal. http://owl.li/8MIw8

Securing Lucas Oil - Specialists from the Department of Energy will be scanning for potential nuclear or radiological weapons in the area around Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, where the Superbowl will be played Sunday. It used to be that the only WMD threat in Indianapolis was Peyton Manning’s right arm. Global Security Newswire has the story. http://owl.li/8MIrm