The Next 30 Years of the Existing Bomber Fleet

On the radar: Extended service lives; Hard Line on Iran Places White House in a Bind; Squandered at Seoul; Fewer weapons, less money; the Legacy of nuclear waste; BMD Flexibility; Remembering Roger Molander; Track 2 after Leap Day; and Third time’s a charm??

March 30, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

”Old Bombers, New Again” - “Can the legacy B-52s, B-1Bs, and B-2s physically last and continue to be credible weapons until the new bomber takes over? The answer, Air Force and industry officials insist, is yes - and with time to spare.” John Tirpak writes for Air Force Magazine.

--“We don’t have to do anything until 2040” by way of a service life upgrade to keep the B-52 safe to fly, a Boeing employee said, and the B-2 through 1958, and possibly beyond. The B-2 will stay in service through 1958. http://owl.li/9YU6f

Tough talk backfires - In order for diplomacy with Iran to work, some say, the U.S. needs a credible military option. But keeping military strikes on the table may hinder dimplomacy, making war seem unavoidable. The New York Times’ Mark Landler, Thom Shanker, and Helene Cooper on how talking tough on Iran could be counterproductive. http://owl.li/9YU7x

Closing nuclear security loopholes - “All of these steps [at the Seoul Summit] are welcome and deserve to be commended. But they merely added new swathes to the already vast and yet inadequate patchwork of international nuclear-security efforts,” writes Miles Pomper in The National Interest. “There are no minimum international legal standards for nuclear security, nor is there any requirement that a country’s security be evaluated to ensure that it is meeting the standard.”

-- “If the threat of nuclear terrorism is to be reduced—and the nuclear-security-summit process to remain worthy of the attention of world leaders—it must at least make an effort to establish such rules as part of a broad framework for nuclear security.” http://owl.li/9YU98

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The strategic and fiscal case for nuclear cuts - “During the Cold War, the United States and Russia amassed huge stockpiles to "prevail" in a protracted nuclear war. But such a conflict is extremely unlikely today -- and the size of the nuclear force required to deter an attack is also far smaller,” write Ira Helfland and Daryl Kimbal in Newsday. “Unless they adjust their thinking, both countries will spend hundreds of billions of dollars to modernize and maintain similar nuclear force levels for decades to come.” http://owl.li/9YUji

A Very Long Road for Military Nuclear Waste - Technical problems are slowing down the Energy Department’s efforts to solidify the liquid nuclear wastes left over from cold-war weapons production. Two of the 51 underground tanks at Savannah River were closed yesterday, and DOE says all of them will be closed by 2028. Matthew Wald reports for The New York Times.

--Environmental groups question DOE’s pratice of measuring progress in terms of tanks closed rather than waste removed. The closed tanks are 99% empty - meaning tens of thousands of gallons of nuclear waste may remain. http://owl.li/9YUmO

The flexibility question - “It’s obvious that presidents have more flexibility when they’re no longer facing another election. The question is, what are they likely to do with it?” Slate’s Fred Kaplan asks.

--His answer: “If the missile-defense program is the main obstacle to further reductions in offensive nuclear weapons, then maybe he can be flexible in some ways that require no congressional approval. He could, for example, stretch out the program...those sites in Poland and Romania could be moved to make them seem less threatening to Russia. Or the Russians could send personnel to man the systems jointly.”

--”The Cold War is long over. The vast majority of both sides’ nuclear weapons, as well as a good part of the missile-defense plan, has nothing to do with maintaining a “balance of power” in any meaningful sense of the phrase.” http://owl.li/9YUoz

Tweet Tribute - @armscontrolnow: Roger Molander, arms control strategist & grassroots organizer, passes away at 71. He shaped our world for the better. http://owl.li/9YH8B

Perspective on the Leap Day deal - Jeff Lewis, back from an International Institute for Strategic Studies track 2 event, has some thoughts on the U.S. and North Korea Leap Day deal: 1. “The North Koreans at my meeting didn’t provide any reason to think that North Korea would do anything other than launch that rocket.” 2. “Any President has a finite amount of political capital and that an agreement with North Korea is a very expensive purchase.”

--And a recommendation: “On Six Party Talks, the Administration would simply say that we aren’t ready to return to Six Party Talks until North Korea announces a moratorium on long-range missile launches...but that we would be willing to include a discussion of the provision of satellite launch services in the Six Party process.” http://owl.li/9YUtn

GMD returns to flight testing - Last year The Missile Defense Agency awarded Boeng a $3.48 billion seven-year contract for development of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense program. Boeing officials say 2012 will see a return to flight testing after two previous interceptor test failures. http://owl.li/9YUuO