Avoiding War and Resolving the Crisis with Iran

On the radar: Talking with Tehran; Bombers and budget cuts; Downplaying Iran’s bluster; Davutoglu to Tehran; Prepping for the Seoul summit; Iran’s threat perceptions; 8 questions on military action; and Iran's fuel rod.

January 4, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Communication needed - Relatively minor incidents with Iran, as we’re seeing with the Straits of Hormuz, run the risk of spiraling into a major military conflict. “To prevent war [with Iran], there is an urgent need to establish lines of bilateral communication at all levels-between military forces in the region, between diplomats, and between senior officials,” write Greg Thielmann and Benjamin Seel of the Arms Control Association.

--The authors argue that pragmatic diplomacy is essential in a strategy to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran. Get the full brief here. http://owl.li/8hYjb

Cuts to the USAF fleet - As the Pentagon lays out its strategy review and debates what programs get cut, the Air Force is expected to eventually retire about 200 (mostly older) planes, Danger Room reports. Other budget options under consideration include delaying the next generation strategic bomber and trimming the B-1 fleet. http://owl.li/8hYli

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DOD pushback - The Pentagon is pushing back against Iran’s warning to keep US aircraft carriers out of the Persian Gulf. "The deployment of U.S. military assets in the Persian Gulf region will continue as it has for decades," DOD Press Secretary George Little said. Laura Rozen has the story. http://owl.li/8hYr1

Turkish FM to Tehran - “Officials say Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu will visit Iran for talks on the country’s nuclear program and developments in Iraq and Syria,” AP reports. http://owl.li/8hYmT

Iran’s threat perception - “Iran is not begging for a military confrontation. Its recent aggression is due, in fact, to its fear of a pending military attack,” writes Geneive Abdo. “Cooler heads in Washington should do their part to end the escalation of hostility before the regime’s perception becomes reality.” http://owl.li/8hYoW

Seoul nuclear summit - In late March, Seoul will host the second global summit on securing vulnerable nuclear materials. The outlook for the summit is mixed, as the goal of securing materials within four years slips and the agenda might get overtaken by events in North Korea and Japan.

--In the latest National Interest, Miles Pomper and Michelle Dover argue that summit organizers should maintain a narrow focus on securing nuclear materials and agree to a 2014 summit so that the next US administration is well positioned to continue efforts to prevent nuclear terrorism. http://owl.li/8hZlO

Think before striking - Some hawkish circles are calling for preventive strikes on Iran. Before acting on that advice, Mikah Zenko of CFR has eight questions that must be addressed.

--Included questions: Given that last year the US intelligence community assessed that Iran had not yet decided to build nuclear weapons, what new information has emerged showing otherwise? “What is the desired endgame of attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities? What is the plausible diplomatic and military plan for how this happens?” http://owl.li/8hYsK

Iran’s fuel rod production - “This week's announcement that Iran has successfully made and tested fuel rods for use in nuclear power plants appeared designed to show that sanctions are failing to halt its technical advances and to strengthen its hand in any renewed negotiations with the major powers,” reports Fredrik Dahl for Reuters.

--"The development itself doesn't put them any closer to producing weapons," said Peter Crail of the Arms Control Association. http://owl.li/8hYuE