Misplaced Priorities on CMRR and Other Nuclear Excesses

On the radar: HASC pushes for CMRR funding; Excess nuclear spending; East Coast BMD strategically unnecessary; Sen. Lugar defeated in primary; Pifer on cooperative missile defense; Amb. Daalder on NATO seating charts; Double standard on nonpro; Washington’s war of words with Iran; No arms race after Agni V; and the Beginnings of overkill.

May 9, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Misplaced priorities - “Judging by the proposals in this [defense authorization] bill, one would think that the Soviet Union hadn’t dissolved and that taxpayer funds were limitless. Remarkably, this bill funds pet nuclear projects as if the Cold War were at its peak,” writes Joel Rubin in The Hill.

--Case in point: the HASC draft of the FY13 NDAA includes funding for CMRR, which had been zeroed out by the administration as well Senate and House appropriators. http://owl.li/aNKnu

Nuke budget savings - A new report from the Project on Government Oversight and Taxpayers for Common Sense finds close to $700 billion in defense budget savings over the next ten years.

--Recommended nuclear reductions include cancelling CMRR (for $6 billion in savings); halting construction of the MOX facility ($5 billion) and cancelling the Uranium Processing Facility at Y-12 ($6.5 billion). http://owl.li/aNA67

East Coast BMD - HASC members are expected to clash in today’s markup of the defense authorization bill over the $100 million proposal for an East Coast missile defense shield. GOP supporters argue the shield is necessary to counter Iran and North Korea; critics argue that it’s strategically unnecessary and fiscally irresponsible. http://owl.li/aNzV8

--“We should not be spending hundreds of millions of dollars to develop a missile defense system on the East Coast that, as General Jacoby bluntly said, the military does not want and does not need. This is an ill-advised funding add to a budget that is already extremely strained and I will support efforts to use this money to reduce our ballooning federal deficit,” said HASC ranking member Adam Smith in opening remarks. http://owl.li/aNzWF

Tweet - @natsecheather: Today's markup of #13NDAA is painful window on disjuncture betw what Pentagon actually wants/sound policy/fiscal responsibility, & bill drafters.

Welcome to Early Warning - Subscribe to our morning email or follow us on twitter.

--Have a tip? Email earlywarning@ploughshares.org. Want to support this work? Click here.

Congress’ foreign minister - Sen. Richard Lugar - the top Republican senator on foreign policy and leading expert on nuclear policy - was defeated in his primary yesterday. John T. Shaw assesses “The Legacy of Richard Lugar” in The National Interest. http://owl.li/aNAcf

Tweet - @thedeadhandbook: Nunn-Lugar was most successful foreign policy initiative by Congress in a generation, made the world safer in a hair-raising time.

Nunn-Lugar Scorecard - 13300 warheads deactivated, 1473 ICBMs destroyed, 936 SLBMs destroyed, 233 bombers eliminated, 829 nuclear weapons transports secured. http://owl.li/aNAaf

Outlines of a missile defense agreement - A cooperative missile defense agreement with Russia is unlikely until after the U.S. presidential elections. If Moscow is prepared for a deal in 2013, Steven Pifer offers recommendations for a deal that would allow the U.S. to defend its allies while making it “as easy as possible for Moscow to agree to a cooperative missile defense arrangement.” http://owl.li/aNzZq

--Included recommendations: U.S. and NATO political commitment not to target defenses against Russia’s strategic missiles; annual notifications of deployed and planned deployments of missile defense assets; and allow Russian experts to use their own sensors to observe SM-3 tests.

--Full Report - Missile Defense in Europe: Cooperation of Contention? (pdf) http://owl.li/aNA1t

Amb. Daalder on The Daily Show - Previewing the NATO summit in Chicago, U.S. Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder talks with Jon Stewart on The Daily Show. Topics include English vs. French seating arrangements and the need for dialogue on missile defense with Russia. http://owl.li/aNA44

Counterproductive - The threatening rhetoric that some Washington policymakers think will pressure Iran into making concessions may not play so well in Tehran, writes Jasmin Ramsey in The Guardian.

--“The crude view is that the more pressure there is, the more likely that Iran will make concessions," says Paul Pillar. "In fact, the bigger challenge now is not so much getting the Iranians to hurt, but instead, getting them to believe that the west is serious about seeking an agreement.” http://owl.li/aNzT3

India’s nukes - “India has an explicitly stated no-first-use policy and is widely viewed as a U.S. security ally. But that doesn't mean we should turn a blind eye to India's actions.” Jane Harman in The LA Times on the (lack of a) response to India’s recent missile test.

--“These tests — without serious responses — may also spur reckless conduct. Wisdom counsels zero tolerance,” Harman concludes. http://owl.li/aNzQA

Agni V and the strategic balance - With its test of the Agni V intermediate range missile, India is “creeping toward having an assured retaliation capability against China,” write M. Taylor Fravel and Vipin Narang in Foreign Policy. Don’t expect this to spark a China-India arms race, they argue. India’s modest advancement with the Agni V, paired with its assured retaliation strategy, does not alter the strategic balance enough to spur an arms expansion from China. http://owl.li/aNBuP

First stockpile requirements - In September 1945, a month after Japan surrendered, how many nuclear bombs did U.S. Army Air Forces think were required? Between 123 and 466. That includes the ability to drop 3 nuclear bombs on each of 15 to 66 priority cities in the USSR.

--Alex Wellerstein at Restricted Data has the story and the historical charts, maps, and memos. Notes Wellerstein, “They aren’t planning on deterrence, here. They’re planning for destruction.” http://owl.li/aNA8s