Russia Concerned About Relations with the U.S.

Today's top nuclear policy stories, with excerpts in bullet form.

Stories we're following today: Thursday November 4, 2010.

Russia Fears ‘Reset’ of Relations With U.S. - Greg White for "Washington Wire" a Wall Street Journal Blog [link]

• [Sergei Markov, a senior legislator from the ruling United Russia party] and other Russian officials voiced fear that the rise of the republican party could threaten Mr. Obama’s “reset” of relations with Russia.
• On Wednesday, the chairman of a key committee in the Russian parliament said it would withdraw its recommendation that the legislature ratify the U.S.-Russia treaty reducing nuclear weapons — a major achievement of the ‘reset’ — while it assesses the chances the U.S. Senate will ratify the treaty.
• “If they can’t do this in the lame-duck session in the next couple of weeks, the chances for ratification by the new Senate will be radically lower,” said Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the International Affairs Committee in the State Duma. “It will be significantly harder for President Obama to conduct his foreign policy, known as the ‘reset’ in relations with Russia.”
• “It’s not just a problem of Republican victory but that the republicans are changing, they’re becoming more of a dark force,” Mr. Markov said. “Europeans are very scared that Obama will be replaced something monstrous like Sarah Palin.”

Clinton Urges Lame-Duck Senate Vote On START - AP 

• U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton on Thursday urged the Senate to move quickly in a lame-duck session to ratify a new arms control treaty with Russia.
• Visiting the capital of New Zealand, Clinton said the Obama administration has the votes to approve the START treaty and said it would be her "preference" for a vote to be held before the new Congress takes over in January. Republicans, who picked up several seats in Tuesday's midterms, may want to delay the vote until new members are sworn in.
• "We are working hard to pass the treaty," Clinton told reporters at a news conference with New Zealand's prime minister. "We believe we have enough votes to pass it in the Senate, it's just a question of when it will be brought to the vote."
• "It may be brought, and it would certainly be my preference that it be brought, in any lame-duck session in the next several weeks, and that is what I am working toward seeing happen," Clinton said. "But we'll have to wait and work with the Senate and the leadership when they come back for that session."

Kerry Urges START Ratification by End of Year - Laura Rozen for Politico [link]

• Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry (D-Mass.) said Wednesday he remains committed to get the U.S.-Russian arms control treaty ratified by the end of the year.
• “Failure to approve New START as soon as possible would not only weaken American security, it would undermine the spirit of bipartisanship that has characterized previous arms control deliberations,” Jennifer Berlin, Kerry Spokeswoman said.
• “It will take a week or so to sort out the pieces, but prospects for Senate approval of the New START treaty still look good,” said arms control proponent Joe Cirincione of the Plougshares Fund. “This could be the first real test of whether the Republican Party is willing to govern responsibly.”
• Other Hill sources suggested Wednesday that if new START does come up for ratification during the lame duck session, the vote would likely take place in December. It’s very much on the radar, we just have to see what we can and can’t do, one staffer said, adding he’s still hopeful it can be done.

New Senate, New START on Track - Steven Young for "All Things Nuclear" [link]

• Yesterday’s election results do not alter the chances for the Senate to provide its advice and consent to the New START arms control agreement. In fact, the treaty provides an excellent test case for whether the Senate will listen to the small minority of “anti-any treaty” arms control opponents, or to the overwhelming advice of the country’s military leadership and intelligence community in favor of New START.
• Three new senators will be seated. There is little doubt that Senator-elect Chris Coons of Delaware will support New START.
• The other two cases are more complicated, but both could and should end up as supporters. Senator-elect Mark Kirk of Illinois, based on his House track record, would normally be considered a strong supporter, but he was pushed significantly to the right during his campaign.
• Senator-elect Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a Democrat, ran as far from President Obama as he could during the campaign, and that probably helped him get elected. But on this issue, he has indicated he would listen to the advice of our military before making a decision. And that advice will make his choice a simple one.
• The simple fact is: the United States needs the treaty. It is a good deal for us, as the military leaders who would be responsible for actually using U.S. nuclear weapons have made clear.

Note: Steven is the Senior Analyst & Washington Representative for the Global Security Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists - a Ploughshares grantee.

New START After the Mid-Term Election - Daryl G. Kimball for "Arms Control Now [link]

• Following the Nov. 2 U.S. mid-term election, Congressional leaders and the White House now must shift from campaign mode to governing mode. That will be tough for many, but is necessary for the health and security of the nation.
• If Senate leaders agree to spare 2-3 days for floor debate and a vote on the treaty, it would very likely win well over the 67 votes that are needed for ratification. The results of the November 2 election, which was clearly about the economy, jobs, and federal spending and not foreign policy, don’t fundamentally change that calculus.
• Prompt ratification of New START is the only way to close the “verification gap” that has emerged since the original START expired on Dec. 5, 2009. New START would establish an updated system of information exchanges and enhanced on-site inspections that would provide more information on the status of Russian strategic forces than was available under START.
• Since last spring, a vast array of experts — Republicans and Democrats alike — has urged ratification, including four former secretaries of state, four former secretaries of defense, three former national security advisors, seven former Strategic Command chiefs and all three leaders of the nation’s nuclear labs. And it has what Defense Secretary Robert Gates termed “the unanimous support” of America’s military leadership.

Note: Daryl is the Executive Director of the Arms Control Association - a Ploughshares grantee.

What the Senate’s New START Resolution Says - Joshua Pollock for "Arms Control Wonk" [link]

• In a blog post and in comments to the media, Konstantin Kosachyov, who chairs the international affairs committee of Russia’s State Duma, has expressed concern about the Resolution of Advice and Consent to Ratification for the New START Treaty approved by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in September.
• Mr. Kosachyov is particularly concerned about three “understandings” at the end of the text, which interpret certain aspects of the treaty. For this reason, he proposes that the State Duma’s international affairs and defense committees reconsider their previous unconditional endorsements of the treaty.
• It would be very unfortunate if the Russian and American legislatures started issuing dueling interpretations of New START or if either side imposed new conditions on its entry into force. This dynamic effectively undid START II in the 1990s.
• It bears emphasizing that the three understandings, which have been drafted with great care, do not alter the meaning of New START. The understandings aim to force a narrow reading of certain aspects of the treaty upon the American President. While they are not overly generous in spirit, they should not be a source of unnecessary alarm in Moscow.

US, New Zealand Mend Ties After Nuclear Dispute - Associated Press 

• The United States and New Zealand moved Thursday to fully restore relations that have been strained by a lingering 25-year nuclear dispute that has hampered military cooperation.
• U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and New Zealand's Foreign Minister Murray McCully signed the "Wellington Declaration," a broad statement of principles that lays out parameters of expanded U.S.-New Zealand cooperation on counterterrorism, nuclear nonproliferation, transnational crime and climate change.
• The document "makes it clear that we want to cooperate across the board in every aspect of our civilian efforts and our military as well," Clinton told reporters at a news conference with McCully and New Zealand's Prime Minister John Key.
• "In my view, we have turned a very important page in the history of U.S.-New Zealand relations," McCully said.
• The declaration establishes a "strategic partnership" that includes enhanced political-military discussions that had been curtailed due to the nuclear row. One goal of those talks will be to resume full military-to-military cooperation.