Experts Warn Against Attacking Iran

Today's top nuclear policy stories, with excerpts in bullet form.

Stories we're following today: Monday January 31, 2011.

Davos Panel Sees Huge Iranian Response to Attack - Dan Perry in The Washington Post [link]

• A diverse panel of decision-makers and experts from the United States, Europe and the Middle East found common ground on just one thing when it comes to dealing with the Iranian nuclear program Friday: A military strike could well spark a devastating counterattack.
• The Davos panel thus reflected the basic disagreement that divides world powers and bedevils diplomatic efforts: All seem to oppose Iran producing a nuclear weapon, but there are disagreements over whether to believe its protestations. And down the road lies the open question of whether war is worse than acquiesence.
• Iran "is not interested in any serious way to produce electricity," said Haass, who is president of the Council on Foreign Relations, an influential U.S. think tank. "Let's not kid ourselves: This is about a sustained Iranian commitment to either develop nuclear weapons or get 90 percent of the way there" - perhaps sufficing with a status as "a 'threshold nuclear weapons state' in the belief that they could derive most of the benefits (without) incurring most of the costs."
• "We should use every single opportunity to reach our goal on the diplomatic path," said German Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg.
• Turki, a former Saudi intelligence chief who is a brother of Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal, said that "Iran will strike back wherever it can, throughout the globe. My country and other countries - all countries - will be in the firing line. Iran has assets all over the world that it can use."

Pakistan Doubles Its Nuclear Arsenal - Karen DeYoung in The Washington Post [link]

• Pakistan's nuclear arsenal now totals more than 100 deployed weapons, a doubling of its stockpile over the past several years in one of the world's most unstable regions, according to estimates by nongovernment analysts.
• An escalation of the arms race in South Asia poses a dilemma for the Obama administration, which has worked to improve its economic, political and defense ties with India while seeking to deepen its relationship with Pakistan as a crucial component of its Afghanistan war strategy.
• "The administration is always trying to keep people from talking about this knowledgeably," said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security and a leading analyst on the world's nuclear forces. "They're always trying to downplay" the numbers and insisting that "it's smaller than you think."
• "It's hard to say how much the U.S. knows," said Hans M. Kristensen, director of the nuclear information project at the Federation of American Scientists and author of the annual global nuclear weapons inventory published in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. "Probably a fair amount. But it's a mixed bag - Pakistan is an ally, and they can't undercut it with a statement of concern in public."
• Four years ago, the Pakistani arsenal was estimated at 30 to 60 weapons. "They have been expanding pretty rapidly," Albright said. Based on recently accelerated production of plutonium and highly enriched uranium, "they could have more than doubled in that period," with current estimates of up to 110 weapons.
• While continuing to produce weapons-grade uranium at two sites, Pakistan has sharply increased its production of plutonium, allowing it to make lighter warheads for more mobile delivery systems. Its newest missile, the Shaheen II, has a range of 1,500 miles and is about to go into operational deployment, Kristensen said. Pakistan also has developed nuclear-capable land- and air-launched cruise missiles.

Russia, US Set Date for New Nuclear Arms Pact - Dmitry Zaks for AFP [link]

• Moscow said Friday that the world's first nuclear arms deal in two decades would come into force early next month when US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton meets her Russian counterpart in Munich.
• A senior Russian official announced the February 5 meeting between Clinton and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov only moments after President Dmitry Medvedev put his name on the ratification of the new US nuclear disarmament agreement.
• The pact will come into force the moment Clinton and Lavrov swap their respective ratification documents during the annual Munich Security Conference -- an event born in the 1960s at the height of the Cold War.
• The exchange of notes will seal a tortuous process that began more than a decade ago but only came to life with US President Barack Obama's arrival in the White House.
• The treaty to eliminate some of the world's most deadly weapons is the centerpiece of Obama's vision of a world without nuclear weapons and a landmark feature of his effort to "reset" the previously stalled relations with Russia.

Gates Says Nuclear Forces Have Fixed Slips - The Associated Press 

• Defense Secretary Robert Gates on Friday credited the departing chief of the nation's nuclear forces with restoring that highly sensitive mission to its "proper place of honor" following a series of embarrassing episodes involving mishandling the weapons meant to deter nuclear attack on the U.S.
• Gates presided over a change-of-command ceremony in which Air Force Gen. Robert Kehler was formally installed as chief of U.S. Strategic Command, succeeding Air Force Gen. Kevin Chilton, who is retiring after 35 years of service. Chilton is a former fighter pilot and NASA astronaut.
• In August 2007, six nuclear-armed cruise missiles at Minot Air Force Base, N.D., were mistakenly loaded onto a B-52 bomber and flown to Barksdale Air Force Base, La., without the bomber crew knowing they were aboard. The stunning foul-up cost a colonel his command and was cited by Gates as contributing to his decision to fire Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Michael Moseley and Air Force Secretary Michael Wynne.
• In March 2008, the embarrassment grew after the United States mistakenly shipped to Taiwan four electrical fuses designed for use on nuclear intercontinental ballistic missiles. The items, which were returned to the U.S., were not nuclear materials. Six Air Force generals, nine Air Force colonels and two Army generals were disciplined as a result.
• In introductory comments at Friday's ceremony, Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, alluded obliquely to that troubled period, saying Chilton "went on to make positive, lasting changes at a time when the nation really needed them."

The Mouse Can Roar - The Chicago Tribune [link]

• For years we've heard breathless reports about the potential for cyber-attacks to shut down electric grids and transit systems. Even minor cross-border digital incidents have gotten tabloid treatment. Now we know what a real cyber-attack looks like. And it looks pretty good from here.
• This one came at the welcome expense of the Iranian nuclear program. It involved no loss of life, invasion of territory or release of radioactivity. Yet the "Stuxnet" computer virus is said to have set back Tehran's nuclear arms race by as much as four years.
• The malicious software directed the sensitive machines to spin so fast that about one-fifth of the total were wrecked, published reports say. Iranian technicians saw nothing amiss as they monitored their instruments, even as their costly machinery flamed out. The code was so specific that it couldn't be tweaked and used against its makers, though certainly good actors and bad have taken note of its success.
• In a recent interview with the newsletter "Inside the Pentagon," Vice Adm. Barry McCullough III, who runs U.S. Fleet Cyber Command, noted that boosting cyber capabilities without a budget increase will mean reshaping the military workforce.
• New career tracks could enable naval officers with cyberskills to bypass requirements to go to sea before standing for promotion, McCullough said. He's also open to seeding his reserves with tech-savvy nerds who might not look like Navy material on the surface: "Maybe you wouldn't want them in uniform," the admiral said, "but they're really smart cyber dudes."
• It took a long time for the military to warm up to drones. Planes without flyboys were just too much for the old guard to accept, until their effectiveness became obvious. In the new arena of cyberwarfare, we need all brains on deck.