What a Containment Strategy for Iran Could Look Like

On the radar: Containment possible, not preferred; Chinese nuclear developments; Embargo economics; Missileer on the readiness shortfall; Casualties of a nuclear exchange; and House looks to block New START.

May 14, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

If All Else Fails - “The U.S. commitment to using all instruments of national power to prevent Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons remains the right policy. If prevention fails, however, it would be imperative to move rapidly and coherently to minimize the damage to vital U.S. interests...More serious planning and preparation for containment is needed – not because the United States wants to take this path, but because it may eventually become the only path left,” says a new report from the Center for a New American Security.

--Sketching out a containment strategy, the authors suggest five objectives - deterrence, defense, disruption, de-escalation and denuclearization - supported by steps ranging from clarifying U.S. declaratory policy to enhancing U.S. military presence and establishing more robust security cooperation in the Persian Gulf.

--Caution: ”If these steps are carried out, effective containment is possible. But it would be highly complex and far from foolproof. The residual dangers of a nuclear-armed Iran would be meaningful, and the consequences of a failure of containment would be profound,” write the authors.

--Full report: “If All Else Fails: The Challenges of Containing a Nuclear-Armed Iran” by Colin Kahl, Raj Pattani and Jacob Stokes for the Center for a New American Security. (pdf) http://bit.ly/10nJt9T

Pentagon on PRC - The Pentagon’s latest annual report to Congress on China’s military developments suggests “Chinese nuclear modernizations continue with modest pace with focus on safeguarding a retaliatory capability by replacing land-based liquid-fuel missiles with solid-fuel versions, increasing mobile ICBMs, and building a small fleet of ballistic missile submarines,” Federation of American Scientists’ Hans Kristensen writes at the FAS Strategic Security Blog.

--Topline: the report shows China with “the same number of ICBMs as last year;” suggests China may be developing a new road-mobile ICBM “possibly capable of” carrying MIRVed warheads; states that China has added a third class of SSBN to its fleet and has two additional subs that are under construction; and finds that China is “modifying the new H-6 [medium-range bomber] to ‘a new variant that possesses greater range and will be armed with a long-range cruise missile,” which so far does not have a nuclear capability reports Kristensen. Full post here. http://owl.li/l18Cx

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Iran embargo - Advocates for heaping sanctions on Iran are floating the proposal to cut Iran off entirely from the global oil market. “Some economists and Obama administration officials have criticized the proposal, variations of which are circulating on Capitol Hill, saying such a measure could disrupt oil markets, alienate U.S. allies and drive up energy prices,” write Joby Warrick and Steven Mufson for The Washington Post.

--Supporters of the embargo argue that blocking Iran’s oil from the market would not drive up prices, suggesting that today’s sluggish demand and excess oil production capacity could moderate the price hike. Other economists dispute that analysis, arguing that, given today’s historic high oil prices, oil producers like Saudi Arabia might be unwilling to surge production. Full story here. http://wapo.st/12xlVhM

What morale crisis? - Capt. Matthew Vanderschuere, a former missileer, offers some perspective on the recent issue with ICBM officer readiness. “Minot Air Force Base took 17 missileers off alert and placed them in remedial retraining. Rounding up, that’s about 10% of the alert force put into retraining, after the Wing passed its inspection. The other two missile wings in Wyoming and Montana recently came off inspections where they were rated ‘excellent.’ Each year the Air Force conducts simulated electronic and physical launches, and does so with a high success rate.”

--Capt. Vanderschuere argues that the political hubbub that followed the story is unwarranted, given that only a small portion of one wing’s ICBM officers failed to meet the Air Force’s high readiness standards. Op-ed at Battleland. http://ti.me/14jYEAX

Quiet in the Hermit Kingdom - "It appears the [North Korean] rhetoric has died down in recent days...We're hoping that that cycle of provocation has come to its end point,” said Lt. Gen. Francis Wiercinski, commander of U.S. Army Pacific while visiting the Pentagon on Monday. “The U.S. is not yet withdrawing the THADD anti-ballistic missile battery deployed to the region,” said Wiercinski who characterized recent DPRK provocations as “nothing [he] wouldn’t have expected.” Kevin Baron at Foreign Policy has the story. http://owl.li/l0YAE

Treaty roadblocks - Rep. Mike Rogers, chairman of the House Armed Services strategic forces subcommittee, said in a hearing last week that he will not approve $75 million to implement the New START treaty until his subcommittee gets a report on the Pentagon’s plans for the makeup of U.S. nuclear forces in 2018. Those decisions on the future makeup of the U.S. nuclear force are set to be made at the end of this year. Walter Pincus at The Washington Post has the story on how the House is working to block nuclear reductions. http://owl.li/l10Lo

Tweet - @StephenWalt: RIP Kenneth Waltz: Towering figure in IR. My thoughts on his role as a teacher are here: http://t.co/0S3NCt0qOJ

Tweet - @ReutersWorld: Japan PM adviser Iijima arrives in North Korea. reut.rs/19mJZWJ

Skipping CD - “US won’t let ambassador attend UN Conference on Disarmament when Iran takes over presidency” from AP. http://wapo.st/YGTnmA

Jalili to run - “Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, has registered to run for president in the Islamic Republic's June 14 election,” reports Reuters. http://reut.rs/YGXf6S

Mass destruction, analyzed - What would happen if Israel and a nuclear Iran were to exchange nuclear attacks? A new paper suggests that an attack on Tehran using a five 500-kiloton weapons would “kill seven million people - 86% of the population - and leave close to 800,000 wounded.” On the Israeli side, cities like Haifa would be decimated and one sixth more of the population injured. Nick Turse at Salon summarizes the new paper. http://owl.li/l15bJ

--Full study here: “Nuclear War Between Israel and Iran: Lethality Beyond the Pale,” by Dallas, Bell, Stewart, Caruso and Burkle, Conflict and Health, April 2013. (pdf) http://bit.ly/10Vulwd

Events:

--"Role of Science Engagement in Reducing WMD Threats." Andrew Weber and four other speakers. May 15, 12:00-1:30pm @ George Washington University, Seventh Floor. Details here. http://owl.li/kYCDY

--"Preventing a Nuclear Iran," Wendy Sherman and David Cohen. House Foreign Affairs Committee. May 15, 1:00pm @ Rayburn House Office Building. Webcast here. http://owl.li/kYD3D

--"Next Steps in Nuclear Arms Control,” Steven Pifer and Ted Seay. May 15 1:30-2:30pm. International Institute for Strategic Studies, London. Details here. http://owl.li/kYEqu

--"Dangerous Paths to Unconventional Nuclear Proliferation." Brian Finlay and Brian Michael Jenkins. May 15, 1:30-3:00pm @ Stimson Center. Details here. http://owl.li/kYEHN

--U.N. Security Council debates additional sanctions on North Korea. May 16, 10:00am. Webcast here. http://webtv.un.org/

--”North Korea’s Nuclear Challenge: From Brinkmanship to Diplomacy?” Joel Wit. May 16, 12:00-1:30 @ Wilson Center, Fifth Floor. Details here. http://owl.li/kYF6C

--"Strengthening ROK-U.S. Strategic Cooperation: Nuclear Governance and the North Korean Problem," Gary Samore and 12 other speakers. May 17, 9:00am-4:00pm. CSIS, B1, Conference Center. Details here. http://owl.li/kYFWU

Dessert:

Tweet - @ctbto_alerts: 58 years ago today: Operation Wigwam, 1st deep water #nuclear test #InfamousAnniversaries http://bit.ly/16wwBCA