On the radar: After Ahmadinejad; Nukes in the NDAA; 25 Faith groups vs. the bomb; Fuel cycle security; and Don’t tell anybody about the Dutch nukes.

June 13, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Style, not substance - Iran’s nuclear decisions will be made by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, meaning that Iran’s next president is unlikely to end up with much influence on the nuclear portfolio.

--“What Iran’s next president can potentially influence, however, is the tone and tactics with world powers if stalemated nuclear talks resume at some point after a successor is picked for the firebrand President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,” write Ali Akbar Dareini and Brian Murphy in a profile of the presidency and the tones of the candidates as they head into tomorrow’s election. Full article in Time. http://owl.li/lZPv8 [1]

After Ahmadinejad - While he is widely loathed and has a miserable record to show for his presidency, some people might end up missing Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad once he’s out of office, argues Reza Alsan. “Under Ahmadinejad, the presidency has become a legitimate base of power in a way it never had been before,” because Ahmadinejad “so openly challenged the ruling religious hierarchy.”

--That is probably why the Supreme Leader is threatening to get rid of the president’s office, and why it’s unlikely that any of Iran’s presidential candidates will challenge Ayatollah Khamenei in the way Ahmadinejad did. Full article in Foreign Policy. http://owl.li/lZUwo [2]

Election roundup -

--“Why Iran’s Rigged Election Matters.” Bloomberg editorial. http://bloom.bg/11ymyoN [3]

--“Iran's Big Yawn,” by Nazila Fathi in Foreign Policy editorial. http://atfp.co/14yWYp1 [4]

--”Iran’s election is neither free nor fair – but its outcome matters,” by Trita Parsi in The Globe and Mail. http://bit.ly/11bVLDi [5]

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B61 Letter - 25 national faith organizations sent a letter to Senators Dianne Feinstein and Lamar Alexander, asking them to oppose funding for B61 nuclear bomb. (PDF) http://owl.li/m06ts [10]

NDAA nuclear amendments - As the House opens its floor debate on its National Defense Authorization bill, below is a list of nuclear policy amendments ruled in order:

--Polis (D-CO): Amendment (#23) to limit funding for Ground-based Midcourse Missile Defense systems [11] until commanders certify that the system works.
--Cooper (D-TN): Amendment (#33) to reinstate funding to implement the New START treaty [12].
--Fortenberry (R-NJ): Amendment (#148) directing the Secretary of Defense to establish a strategy to modernize the Cooperative Threat Reduction program [13] in order to prevent proliferation of WMD in North Africa and the Middle East.
--Holt (D-NJ): Amendment (#40) to strike missile defense funds [14], except the Iron Dome program.
--Turner (R-OH): Amendment (#19) requesting that the President keep the Congress informed on missile defense [15] and arms control matters.
--Lummis (R-WY), Daines (R-MT) and Kevin Cramer (R-ND): Amendment (#3) would block changes to the current ICBM force [16].

--The Republican-chaired Rules Committee blocked debate on several other potential floor amendments that would have required NATO to pay for half of the $10 billion life extension of the B61 bomb [17], cut funding for an East Coast missile defense site [18], struck sections of the bill that would block New START implementation [19] and sought more afforable alternatives to the Navy’s plan to buy 12 ballistic missile submarines [20].

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard [21]: For 2nd year in a row, House Rules Committee blocks an amendment to eliminate funding for a East Coast missile defense site #FY14NDAA

NTI board - “Michael Douglas, Malcolm Rifkind, Ellen Tauscher Join NTI Board of Directors” announced Sen. Sam Nunn and Ted Turner of the Nuclear Threat Initiative. Press release here. http://bit.ly/19ve8aP [22]

Tweet - @philewing [23]: Instead of combating its widespread internal apathy, disdain for its ICBM mission, the AF is piling on still more: http://t.co/4KX2YOoEo6 [24]

Fuel cycle risk - “Improving the Assessment of the Proliferation Risk of Nuclear Fuel Cycles” from the National Academies of Sciences.

--Abstract: “This study considers how the current methods of quantification of proliferation risk are being used and implemented, how other approaches to risk assessment can contribute to improving the utility of assessments for policy and decision makers. The study also seeks to understand the extent to which technical analysis of proliferation risk could be improved for policy makers through research and development.” Full report here. http://bit.ly/12IU43a [25]

Tweet - @eu_eeas [26]: EU & US launch Chemical, Biological,Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) Risk Mitigation Dialogue. ow.ly/lZjLy [27]

Events:

--”The Implications of the NPT Regime for Nonproliferation.” Speech by Assistant Secretary of State Thomas Countryman. June 18, 9:00 am @ Elliott School of International Affairs. RSVP and details here. http://owl.li/lH9Ks [28]

--"Medical Isotope Production Without Nuclear Reactors or Uranium Enrichment,” Derek Updegraff; Mark Jansson; and David Nusbaum. June 13, 12:00-1:30 pm @ American Association for the Advancement of Science. Details here. http://www.aaas.org/cstsp/events/ [29]

Dessert:

What secret? - Earlier this week, two ex-Dutch prime ministers confirmed that 22 US nuclear bombs are stored at Volkel Air Base in the Netherlands. This confirms widely known information, but, to little avail, the Dutch government and NATO still try to keep the bombs a secret.

--This secrecy fuels mistrust between NATO and Russia while chilling public debate that could otherwise lead to the bombs from being withdraw, writes Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists. This is particularly troublesome given that the Dutch could soon host a new, more capable, nuclear bomb - the B61-12 - at its base. Full analysis at the Strategic Security Blog. http://owl.li/m00GQ [30]