Next Steps for Tactical Reductions

On the radar: Unfinished business from PNI; Nuclear programs fair well in NDAA; CBI sanctions move forward with waiver; Ploughshares’ impact; Dangerous lack of communication with Iran; CJCS on missile defense cooperation; An informed nuclear discussion; Flournoy leaving; and the IAEA after Fukushima.

December 13, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Tactical nuclear transparency, reductions - Twenty years ago, the U.S. and Russia committed to a series of dramatic reductions in tactical nuclear weapons without an arms control treaty. “There is, however, some unfinished business concerning the 20 year-old [“Presidential Nuclear Initiatives”] that both governments could take up now to help lay the foundation for future talks,” write Frank Klotz, Susan Koch and Franklin Miller in the IHT.

--”The next logical step would be for both countries to disclose, on a reciprocal basis, the location, types and numbers of tactical nuclear weapons that remain.” http://owl.li/7XXKt

NDAA conference report - The Senate Armed Services Committee wrapped up its conference on the National Defense Authorization Act for FY12.

--Many nuclear programs got fully funded - including the new ballistic missile submarine and long range penetrating bomber. Also included in the report are provisions requiring/directing the President to report to Congress on any nuclear reductions beneath New START and on any new Nuclear Employment Strategy. From the press release (pdf). http://owl.li/7XXND

Iran sanctions provisions - After a brief scrum between the Senate and White House, sanctions on the Central Bank of Iran moved forward in the NDAA. The bill is “96 percent” the same as the Senate’s original legislation, but now includes a “waiver provision to allow the administration exceptions for countries that have sought to cooperate with the United States in pressuring Iran,” reports Reuters. http://owl.li/7XXQe

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Impact philanthropy - “The Ploughshares Fund is taking a more active role, coordinating efforts it funds to influence the current dialogue about the size and costs of the U.S. nuclear arsenal,” writes Eli Lake in The Daily Beast. http://owl.li/7XYxN

Communication breakdown with Iran - The House bill that would prohibit contact between US government employees and certain Iranian officials could have dangerous repercussions, writes Jamal Adbi in The Hill. Besides preventing communication between US troops and their Iranian counterparts, the bill would hinder diplomatic negotiations.

--“The prospect of diplomats being prescribed by statute to only deal with certain Iranian officials and not others will only add further obstacles to the perfect storm of mutual obstruction and escalation that has prevented any diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran.” http://owl.li/7XXXM

Dempsey on BMD prospects - The US and Russia may break through the missile defense impasse, according to JCS Chair Gen. Dempsey. "I personally believe we will find common ground with the Russian military on [EPAA] because it is not threatening strategic nuclear deterrence.” AOL Defense reports. http://owl.li/7XXZn

Nuclear myth busting - Nuclear terrorism is a real threat. Nuclear disarmament has a historical precedent. And cutting the nuclear arsenal won’t lead to proliferation. Benoît Pelopidas debunks common nuclear myths in the SF Chronicle. http://owl.li/7XXVR

Flournoy to step down - Michele Flournoy has announced that she will step down from her “all-consuming job” as Undersecretary for Defense Policy in February. Laura Rozen reports. http://owl.li/7XY1I

Nuclear smugglers charged - “Three Swiss engineers — a father and his two sons — have been charged with breaking arms export laws by aiding a Pakistani-led nuclear smuggling ring that supplied Libya's atomic weapons program,” AP reports. http://owl.li/7XY7r

IAEA after Fukushima - Nine months after Fukushima, what has changed in how the IAEA addresses nuclear reactor safety? Not much, Bloomberg argues, as reactor safety did not get additional money within the IAEA’s $469 million budget.

--”As it focuses resources on the other two priorities -- technical cooperation and preventing nuclear- weapons proliferation -- the IAEA is missing an opportunity to improve shortcomings in reactor safety exposed by the Fukushima disaster, said Trevor Findlay, a former Australian diplomat.” http://owl.li/7XY44