Concrete Diplomatic Options to End the Iran Standoff

On the radar: What’s next for the Iran talks; Fewer, safer; Cartwright and de-alerting; Senate moving on Nth round of sanctions; Dagan and Woolsey call for total sanctions; Airborne Laser still a bad idea; RAND on Iran diplomacy; Gates on Iran; Triad and triad again; and Pick the site for East Coast missile defense.

May 17, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Next steps at Baghdad - At the second round of P5+1 talks next week, both Iran and the West must take concrete steps to end the nuclear standoff, write retired generals Don Kerrick, John Adams and Stephen Cheney in The Hill.

--Opening Parchin, Fordow, and other facilities to inspections and halting 20% uranium enrichment would be good moves by Iran, the authors write. In return the U.S. could ease up on sanctions and lift the threat of conflict.

--These steps will be difficult, but both sides have incentives to reduce tensions. The U.S. wants to see oil prices go down, and Iran wants to avoid the new sanctions that go into effect in July. http://owl.li/aYDAz

Fewer nukes, more security - Only two things stand in the way of the Global Zero/Cartwright smart proposal for nuclear reductions, write The Economist correspondents: Russian reluctance and U.S. domestic politics. http://owl.li/aYDU2

Cartwright Report - The report of the Global Zero panel chaired by Gen. Cartwright calling for steep nuclear reductions is here. (pdf) http://owl.li/aYDQs

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Cold War relic - One proposal the Cartwright report that hasn’t gotten much media attention is taking nukes off high alert. Foreign Policy’s David Hoffman on why de-alerting makes sense: “This is an anachronism, left over from the Cold War, when rapid response was considered essential for deterrence.” http://owl.li/aYDFO

Sanctions in the Senate - The Senate is expected to approve today a new package of Iran sanctions, Reuters reports. Differences between the Senate and House bills, including the extension of sanctions to all Iranian financial entities, will be decided in conference. http://owl.li/aYDOI

Sanction, then sanction some more - Meir Dagan, R. James Woolsey, and other former government officials argue that “Total Sanctions Might Stop Iran” in a WSJ op-ed.

--Economic isolation, Dagan et al. argue, is the only way to avoid either a military conflict with Iran or a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. http://owl.li/aYDCC

--EW editors note how well such proposals worked with Iraq and Cuba.

HASC’s airborne laser dream - The HASC Strategic Forces subcommittee seems set on reviving the Airborne Laser program, despite military leaders’ and scientific experts’ insistence that the flying lightsaber won’t work. Lt. Gen. Robert Gard (USA, ret.) for Nukes of Hazard on the evidence against ABL. http://owl.li/aYDDT

Bolster diplomacy with Iran - The U.S. should take a three-pronged approach to addressing the Iran nuclear threat, write RAND’s James Dobbins and Ali Nader: bolstering diplomacy with Iran, increasing security cooperation with Israel, and placing a greater emphasis on Iranian human rights abuses. http://owl.li/aYDJB

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: House Defense Approps report online: http://ow.ly/aYlnN. Despite adding $3.1 billion to overall request, no added money for SSBN(X).

Quote - “The only good option is putting enough pressure on the Iranian government that they make the decision for themselves that continuing to seek nuclear weapons is actually harming the security of the country,” former Defense Secretary Robert Gates said in a CBS interview. h/t Ali Gharib at Think Progress. http://owl.li/aYDMn

Schwartz backs the triad - It’s no surprise that Air Force chief of staff Gen. Norton Schwartz has come out in favor of the triad and against the Cartwright report. As Mark Thompson writes, calls for nuclear reductions “can be bad for business, if your business is nuclear war. Or deterrence, as it’s known among atomic aficionados.”

--“Of course, Schwartz still has several months left before his retirement. Plenty of time yet to change his tune, as former Air Force generals Lee Butler and Chuck Horner did.” http://owl.li/aYDSk

Pick the Site - Reasons against an East Coast missile defense: it’s expensive and unnecessary. Reasons for: coastal parity. Also this Washington Post “Pick the Site” contest - where do you think the East Coast interceptors should go?

--Favorite entry thus far: “Fantasyland at Walt Disney World near Orlando, Florida. After all, for the true believers, it is a shield of dreams.” http://owl.li/aYDVB