Fortunes and Fallout from the Nuclear Budget

On the radar: Nonproliferation cuts; Mox hiked; Bomber on track; Deferred cost from sub delay; Tough talk or stepping toward military option; the Bomber and its accessories; US-DPRK talks; North goes movable, not mobile; and The point of nuclear submarines.

February 14, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Nuclear budget overview - The president’s budget for 2013 includes $7.6 billion for NNSA weapons activities, a 5% increase over the 2012 enacted level. The nonproliferation request of $2.5 billion is a 7% increase over last year, but that includes a $231 million cut to the Global Threat Reduction Initiative and the International Nuclear Materials Protection and Cooperation accounts, and a $230 million increase to the Mixed Oxide Fuel program.

--On the DOD side, the new bomber is expected to cost $6.3 billion over the next five years, with a $292 million request in 2013. The two-year delay of the SSBN(X) will save about $0.6 billion in 2013, and about $4.3 billion over the next five years.

-- For more budget details check out Laicie Olson’s Defense Spending Request Briefing Book. (pdf) http://owl.li/93Z6h

Siren - “Obama Administration Cuts Vital Programs Combating Nuclear Terrorism.” Press release from the Fissile Materials Working Group, a nonpartisan group of nuclear security experts. http://owl.li/93Z8w

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Tweet - @DoDBuzz from a press conference with Air Force budget wrangler Maj. Gen. Edward Bolton: “Bolton: Yes, we'll plan to do an AoA on a new ICBM in fiscal 13. It'll cost $11.7M.”

Senate split on Iran options - Sens. Graham, Lieberman and McCain are having a hard time convincing Democrats to sign on to a resolution ruling out containment of Iran. The resolution, expected to be introduced sometime this week, was billed as taking a tough stance against Iran, but is widely seen as moving towards the military option. Alexander Bolton reports for The Hill. http://owl.li/93ZdL

MDA budget - The Missile Defense Agency requested $7.75 billion for FY13. Included: the Sea-Based X-Band radar is getting shelved, several sensor systems are advancing, and the SM-3 Block IIB expects $1.7 billion through 2017. http://owl.li/93ZbD

System of systems - On the surface, the Air Force has given up its next-generation bomber for a no-frills, off-the-shelf new bomber. Reading between the budget lines, however, “the Air Force evidently still views its new bomber as only one system sibling in the system family of systems that will collectively put steel on tomorrow’s targets,” writes Phil Ewing of DODBuzz.

--”This muddies the waters a little,” Ewing notes. “It’s one thing to build a reliable ‘ol airplane that can haul a buncha bombs, but it’s another to assume that your new bomber must also have new off-board “ISR, electronic warfare, communications and weapons”...So not only does the service need to tackle the already difficult job of just building a new airplane, it needs to make sure it can actually field all the accessories, too.” http://owl.li/93ZhM

US-North Korea bilateral - Delegations from the two countries are set to meet in Beijing on Feb. 23. It will be the third such meeting since summer, but the first since the death of Kim Jong Il. http://owl.li/93Zjs

Defense budget questions continue - “Will defense hawks win the defense budget battle?” National Journal asked its panel of national security experts. “A deal on the budget awaits the election outcome,” Gordon Adams says. “Might be what Congress does so well - boot the issue down the road for another year - might be for longer. But for a negotiation to take place everything has to be on the table.” http://owl.li/93Zkq

Israeli diplomats targeted - “Israel accused arch-enemies Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah of being behind twin bomb attacks that targeted Israeli embassy staff in India and Georgia on Monday, wounding four people,” Reuters reports. http://owl.li/93ZmG

Event - Trita Parsi talks Preventing Nukes and Preventing War with Iran: The Diplomatic Option at a briefing hosted by Reps. Kucinich, Conyers, and Lee. Tomorrow, 3pm on the Hill. Details and RSVP here. http://owl.li/93ZoX

DPRK’s moving missiles - Reports about a North Korean mobile ICBM are not what they seem. David Wright of the Union of Concerned Scientists explains: “North Korea does not have the capability to build large solid-fueled missiles. And a large liquid-fueled missile would have to be transported unfueled. North Korea may therefore be able to make these missiles “moveable,” but not “mobile” in the typical usage of that term.” http://owl.li/93ZtI

Quote - “I certainly don't know...The whole point of nuclear submarines is that they go all around the world and you don't know where they are. That's why they're a deterrent,” said British Ambassador to the UN Lyall Grant in response to a statement from Argentinian Foreign Minister Hector Timerman saying a British nuclear sub was sailing near the Falklands. http://owl.li/93ZwC