North Korea Delays Launch, Removes Rocket from Launchpad

On the radar: Technical deficiencies; IAEA face-saving deal; Worries on Iran talks; Russia suspending Gabala radar; Japan buys more Aegis; Update on Syria; Physicians diagnose budget trouble; and Carnegie conference keynotes announced.

December 11, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Marianne Nari Fisher

Launch delay - North Korea has removed all three stages of its rocket from the launch pad and moved them to a nearby assembly facility to address some technical deficiencies in the rocket’s first stage control engine module, reports Yonhap News Agency. Yesterday, the North announced it would extend the rocket launch window until December 29th. http://bit.ly/S45j0k

--“We haven’t had indications before, at least public indications, that North Korea has delayed launches in this way. ... That seems like a new way of doing things,” said missile expert David Wright to Global Security Newswire about how North Korea is managing the latest launch attempt. Rachel Oswald has the story. http://bit.ly/UzwooX

Face-saving deal - The IAEA could help advance prospects for a negotiated solution with Iran if it provides a face-saving means for Iran to address past weapons-related work, writes Mark Hibbs of the Carnegie Endowment.

--”A solution proposed by the P5+1 along these lines might assure Iran that the investigation of its nuclear intentions will be handled in a way that does not disclose embarrassing information—and may not answer all the IAEA’s questions. For its part, Iran would have to bring into force and allow the IAEA to implement the Additional Protocol, and agree not to engage in the future in specific redline activities related to nuclear weapons development.” Full post here. http://bit.ly/Uxn5DM

Next week - “U.N. nuclear inspectors to press Iran on military site access” by Fredrik Dahl at Reuters. http://reut.rs/S4WCmx

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Caution for upcoming talks - The P5+1 will meet with Iran for a new round of negotiations sometime early 2013. Trita Parsi offers three worries ahead of the talks: 1) that the two sides will engage in grandstanding instead of statesmanship, 2) that the sides will not take advantage of bilateral talks, and 3) that spoilers could wreck the potential for a negotiated solution. Full post at Al Monitor. http://bit.ly/W2IFTW

More for more - If Iran were willing to meet P5+1 demands (stop enrichment to 20%, ship out 20%, and shut the Fordow facility), the P5+1 should be willing to give more sanctions relief to Iran, writes Michael Adler for AOL Defense.

--Adler also suggests outlining what the endgame for Iran is - specifically on enrichment and sanctions relief - before talks commence. ”For now, the likely outcome is that the United States and its negotiating partners will only tinker with the current offer and wait to see if Iran is ready to start the process of real negotiating.”http://aol.it/ZawAQX

Gabala radar suspended - “Russia formally notified Azerbaijan that it is suspending the use of the Daryal early-warning radar in Gabala,” as the two countries failed to agree on an annual lease payment, reports Pavel Podvig at Russian Forces.

--The Gabala site was an element of a proposed joint US-Russia missile defense effort. If the Gabala site is abandoned, that cooperative proposal might “be lost for good” says Podvig. Russia plans to compensate for losing the Gabala site by building a second radar at Armavir. http://bit.ly/XOszRS

Aegis sales to Japan - “The U.S. Defense Department on Monday notified Congress that it had approved an arms sale valued at $421 million to Japan for upgrades to its Aegis missile defense system,” reports Reuters. http://reut.rs/125Bv5E

IAEA, intel target - “The facts of Iran's nuclear programme are the holy grail of the intelligence world...As the international arbiter of the nuclear world, the IAEA has inevitably become an intelligence target too. The name of the game is to influence its judgments, and failing that, at least find out what is in its files,” writes Julian Borger for The Guardian. Full post here. http://bit.ly/U3uwEc

Syria - Yesterday, Joe Cirincione entered CNN’s “ Situation Room” to talk Syria's chemical threats with Wolf Blitzer. Video here. http://youtu.be/Blq7LBlrDUU

Budget priorities - “In order to succeed in solving our debt challenges, we must stop wasting billions on programs related to our nuclear arsenal and focus on rebuilding our infrastructure, getting families back to work and protecting their health,” write six members of Physicians for Social Responsibility for the Tallahassee Democrat.

--“Our spending reflects our priorities, and wasting billions on nuclear weapons over rebuilding our economy does not reflect a wise choice for maintaining America’s competitiveness in the future.” http://on.tdo.com/UxaAYV

Moscow BMD update - Russia is preparing to enhance its missile defenses around Moscow with new technologies that would replace the current A-135 system. Details are scant, but "You will probably find out more about them in the near future,” said Deputy Defense Minister Oleg Ostapenko. From Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/TSOALQ

Tweet - @Gottemoeller: A joint US-Russian team, including AVC’s Rob Nelson, just concluded an inspection in Antarctica. http://1.usa.gov/T4Tnbq pic.twitter.com/qJDnos6b

Report - "Pakistan's Nuclear Strategy and Deterrence Stability" by Michael Krepon of Stimson.

--Summary: Krepon argues “the safest route to reducing nuclear dangers remains patient, persistent, top-down efforts to normalize relations between Pakistan and India. Success in this pursuit is dependent on the recognition by Pakistan's military leaders that they possess a sufficient arsenal to secure their objectives, that their current path does not strengthen or stabilize deterrence, and that Indian leaders seek a properly functioning Pakistan more than a submissive one.” Full report available here. (pdf) http://bit.ly/SOhgnP

Tweet - @Wellerstein: "Radiation effects of Two 10-Mt Ground Bursts on Washington." Without a doubt I would be toast! pic.twitter.com/pyvUxxO6

Carnegie Conference - IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano and US Nuclear Regulatory Commission Chairman Allison Macfarlane will the keynote the 2013 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference, on April 8-9, 2013. Details and RSVP here. http://bit.ly/T4BDNr