The Nuclear Budget Squeeze

Today's top nuclear policy stories, with excerpts in bullet form.

Stories we're following today: Wednesday, August 3, 2011.

Looking for Defense Cuts? Go Nuclear - Tom Collina in The Hill [link]

• … can the Nation really afford to spend more than $200 billion over the next ten years to rebuild the U.S. nuclear arsenal? … we will be better off—from a fiscal as well as a security perspective—if a large fraction of this money is invested elsewhere.
• ... if the nuclear arsenal is reduced, we will need fewer submarines, bombers and warheads. By delaying procurement decisions until future needs are clearer, we can save billions.
• By carefully reducing our nuclear forces and scaling back new weapon systems, the United States can save billions. Moreover, by reducing the incentive for Russia to rebuild its arsenal, these budget savings can make America safer. Saving money has never made so much sense.

How the Debt Deal Creates an Opportunity to Cut Nuclear Weapons - Joel Rubin in Ploughshares Blog [link]

• As the dust settles on the debt ceiling deal, it’s become clear that major cuts to defense spending have not only been approved in a bipartisan manner by Congress, but that even more are on the way.
• It’s time to stop spending dollars that we don't have on programs that we don't need and that don’t make us more secure. And there is a clear target for such cutting: nuclear weapons.
• ... questions have arisen about how the cuts will be made. The answer … is to cut wasteful defense programs that do not advance our national security. Fortunately, the new budget ceiling will help do just that, by putting downward pressure on appropriators to make real decisions within the security accounts.
• There is still much to be defined, yet the inherently competitive situation now shaping up on defense spending is welcome news to those who have been long seeking to get rid of the bloated weapons systems that weaken our economy while doing scant little to advance our national security.

Iran Centrifuge News Increases Risk - Cliff Kupchan in Foreign Policy [link]

• Even using very conservative assumptions, Iran could make a bomb in 12-18 months, depending on how many advanced machines are deployed, their efficiency, and other factors.
• There are doubts, however. First, Iran's ability to make and operate advanced machines that work well, individually and in cascades, is uncertain. Second, Iran may not have enough component material to make large numbers of advanced machines.
• Several explanations are possible for why Iran is, rhetorically at least, again emphasizing its nuclear program … The central question is how quickly Iran is able to move forward.

Nuclear Bomb Material Cutoff Plan Pits U.S. Against Pakistan - Viola Gienger in Bloomberg [link]

• The [Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty] has been stalled in the Geneva-based UN Conference on Disarmament for 12 years, where Pakistan has become the sole holdout against negotiations.
• [Therefore, says Undersecretary of State Ellen Tauscher,] “ … the United States is joining with other key countries to start preparations for a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty elsewhere until the conference can get down to work.”
• Pakistan’s objections reflect its existential fear of nuclear archrival India, which has enough plutonium for about 140 bombs, according to the Washington-based Arms Control Association. Pakistan has enough plutonium and uranium for 100 bombs, according to the ACA.

Revenge of the Nerd: Physicist Becomes Pentagon’s Top Deputy - Noah Shachtman in Danger Room [link]

• Ashton Carter … has been nominated to be the new deputy secretary of defense … In effect, Carter becomes the military’s chief operating officer.
• Even before the latest budget-cutting deal on Capitol Hill, Carter was leading an effort to squeeze more out of the Pentagon’s accounts. “The Department of Defense is entering a new era in defense spending that’s going to require us to change the way we do business,” Carter recently told an audience at the Brookings Institution.