Nuclear Power and Nuclear Weapons

On the radar: Japan’s latent capabilities; Iran’s nuclear timeline; Musharraf is back; the IAEA goes to Damascus; Missile tests in Russia and Pakistan; Japan’s nuclear power debate; Livermore gets a new director; and Blinky the three-eyed fish.

October 28, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Japan’s “tacit nuclear deterrent”- Nuclear power isn’t popular in Japan right now, but Japanese officials argue there’s still a good reason to maintain its commercial reactors. "I don't think Japan needs to possess nuclear weapons, but it's important to [be able]...to produce a nuclear warhead in a short amount of time,” said a former defense minister. From the Wall Street Journal. http://owl.li/7c5TZ

--”Those holding the view appear to remain in the minority. The Japanese government says it is committed to its self-imposed Three Non-Nuclear Principles, a 1967 policy banning the production, possession and presence of nuclear weapons in Japan,” notes the report.

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How close to a nuclear weapon is Iran? - Most experts assess that it would take Iran about six months to a year to acquire the fuel necessary for constructing a weapon. Reza Kahlili argues differently. ”Not only does the Islamic Republic already have nuclear weapons from the old Soviet Union, but it has enough enriched uranium for more. What’s worse, it has a delivery system,” writes Kahlili in the Washington Times. The author says he used to work for CIA. To present his argument, he strings together a disparate set of comments from foreign and low-level intelligence workers.

--Kahili urges the U.S. to take “appropriate action” against Tehran “before it’s too late.” It’s unclear what Kahlili considers as “appropriate.” http://owl.li/7c1M0

That should be news to the U.S. Intelligence Community - The unified assessment from 27 US intelligence agencies, as presented in March by DNI Clapper, is that Iran continues “keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons in part by developing various nuclear capabilities that better position it to produce such weapons, should it choose to do so. We do not know, however, if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons.” http://owl.li/7c5RZ

Musharraf returns - Pakistan’s Pervez Musharraf is running for president again, and he kicked off his campaign with what Josh Rogin describes as “a long oral history of how foreign powers were responsible for the radicalization of tribal groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan due to their ham-handed interventions.” http://owl.li/7c1AL

-- Musharraf also “pushed back against concerns expressed by the United States and other world powers about his nation's ties to terrorist organizations and the security of its nuclear arsenal,” reports Global Security Newswire. http://owl.li/7c63a

IAEA talks in Syria - “Senior U.N. nuclear inspectors held talks with Syrian officials in Damascus this week to try to kick-start a long-stalled probe into suspected atomic activities in the Arab state, but it was not immediately clear whether any progress was made,” writes Fredrik Dahl for Reuters.

--Syria’s undeclared Deir al-Zor site is just one of the unanswered questions, said Olli Heinonen. "Hence the need to address all nuclear material and activities in Syria -- such as foreign involvement in Syria's nuclear program." http://owl.li/7c6hc

Russia’s missile test - Russia successfully test-fired its Bulava missile (range: 3,700 miles) for the third time this year. The Bulava, expected to become “the cornerstone of Russia's nuclear deterrent for the next three decades,” encountered difficulties earlier, failing seven of its previous fourteen tests. From Reuters. http://owl.li/7c1OP

Pakistan’s missile test - Pakistani officials reported a successful test of a stealth cruise missile. The Hatf VII has a range of about 430 miles and is capable of carrying nuclear warheads. The special feature of Friday's launch, officials said, was the validation of a new multi-tube missile launch vehicle. http://owl.li/7c1Fq

New director at Livermore - “Penrose C. Albright, a veteran insider in the arcane world of national security, nuclear weapons policy and counterterrorism, has been named the 11th director of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.” David Perlman reports for the SF Chronicle . http://owl.li/7c1CN

Three-eyed fish - Was caught in a reservoir fed by a local nuclear power plant in Argentina. “The fishermen say their discovery, which actually bears no resemblance to Blinky the three-eyed fish from The Simpsons, has begun to worry local residents who live near the reactor,” writes Gizmodo. http://owl.li/7c6qv