Repeating Past Mistakes with North Korea

On the radar: Yun on North Korea; White House escalates sanctions; Perspective from Iranian activists; Diplomatic strategies with Iran; Sanctions cul-de-sac; WMD acquisition report; SEANWFZ; Skepticism on DPRK test paper; and Getting glib about attacking Iran.

February 7, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

”Don’t Ignore North Korea” - “We are about to repeat past mistakes by ignoring a rogue state that already possesses nuclear weapons. This failure to be more proactive is likely to end in a different kind of bad news — another nuclear test,” writes Ploughshares Fund Executive Director Philip Yun in The Hill. “Let’s focus on the real and urgent, seriously probing North Korea’s new leadership for facts — and prevent yet another nuclear test.”

--Yun gives 4 reasons a test is likely: the North’s military imperative to advances its nuclear program, U.S. policy inertia during 2012 elections; a likely reaction by the North to South Korea’s elections, and pressure on Kim Jong Un to demonstrate leadership. http://owl.li/8VnYM

Stepping up sanctions - President Obama signed an executive order yesterday freezing the US assets of the Iranian government and financial institutions, The New York Times reports. White House press secretary Jay Carney explained the move: “There has been a steady increase in our sanctions activity, and this is part of that escalation.” http://owl.li/8VnFO

--Excerpts of the president’s statement on the new sanctions are available here. http://owl.li/8VnVl

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Iranian activists on the military option - Fear of a military strike is bringing Iranian opposition groups together, Geneive Abdo writes in Global Public Sphere. 50 activists from different factions met to discuss common interests. Many of them, Adbo reports, expressed concerns that attack would harm the population, empower the regime, provoke retaliation and destabilize the region. http://owl.li/8Voav

Event - Diplomatic Strategies for Preventing a Nuclear-Armed Iran, hosted by the Arms Control Association, features Ambassador James Dobbins, ACA’s Peter Crail, and Dr. Jim Walsh. Next Thursday, 9:30am, at the Stimson Center. RSVP here. http://owl.li/8Redv

Quote - “Sanctions policy is pushing the United States into a policy cul-de-sac where the only way out is through regime change. In the abstract, that might sound great, but in reality, pushing for that option could be both messy and expensive,” writes Dan Drezner at Foreign Policy. http://owl.li/8Vo3o

Tweet - @ColinKahl: Iraq redux: the calls for regime change in Iran grow. http://owl.li/8Vo6o

WMD acquisition report - The Director of National Intelligence submitted the annual report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to WMD. Read the full unclassified report here. (pdf) http://owl.li/8Vodv

Event - New START at One Year: Implementation and Looking to the Future. Panel 1: Rose Gottemoeller, Ted Warner and Michael Elliott discuss how the treaty has worked thus far and next steps the U.S. government is considering. Panel 2: Steven Pifer, Jan Lodal and James Acton talk about future reductions and factors that could affect the process.

--Brookings Institution. Feb. 10 from 1:00-3:30pm. RSVP and details here. http://owl.li/8PKli

Nuke-Free Zone - “Indonesia is looking for the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone to be finalized by the middle of 2012, "if not sooner," the nation's top diplomat said said on Monday.” Global Security Newswire has the story. http://owl.li/8VogF

Calling all radiochemists - A forthcoming paper in Science & Global Security by Lars-Erik De Geer argues that North Korea may have conducted two low-yield nuclear tests in 2010. “I don’t buy it. At least not yet,” writes Jeffrey Lewis at Arms Control Wonk. Lewis explains what he sees as some methodological problems in the paper. http://owl.li/8Voiq

There’s an app for that? - An advertisement for an Israeli cable TV company has been pulled offline in response to criticism of its joking references to attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities. In the commercial, four comedians accidentally blow up a nuclear facility using a Samsung Galaxy tablet. Threat Level has the video and the story. http://owl.li/8Vokd