Tense Week Ahead for Iran Policy

On the radar: IAEA report dropping, pressure rising; the Risks of saber rattling; Nuclear dangers and the “ally from hell”; Michael Douglas in Washington; Invest in nuclear terror prevention; Not knowing thy enemy; Understanding nuclear explosions without testing; Advice for the North Korea team; Iran’s waning influence; Nuclear and the bomber; and Don Draper sells some Nikes.

November 4, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Outlook for next week’s IAEA report on Iran - “Russian and Chinese reluctance may complicate any Western campaign to parlay a U.N. watchdog report this month into political momentum for tougher sanctions on Iran over its disputed nuclear program, diplomats and analysts say,” writes Fredrik Dahl for Reuters. http://owl.li/7j2gD

Overheated rhetoric on Iran - “There's a great deal of ferment in Iran and Iran policy right now, but the fundamentals remain unchanged,” writes Heather Hurlburt in The Guardian. “The rhetoric overlooks nuances like domestic politics, the effects of sanctions, and Iran’s participation in discussions on Afghanistan and Syria, all of which “suggest that the path of diplomacy is far from exhausted.”

--”Iran responds to unified global pressure and embarrassment, not to unilateral threats; and military and economic experts continue to warn that military action would unite Iranians, devastate the global economy and have unforeseeable knock-on security consequences.” http://owl.li/7j24A

Risky saber rattling on Iran - “It is an extraordinarily tense and dangerous moment in the Middle East, and trigger fingers are itchier than ever,” writes Bruce Riedel.

--”An Israeli strike on Iran could create a firestorm of violence from the Mediterranean to the Arabian Sea and put thousands of American soldiers and diplomats at risk...The former head of the Mossad has publicly urged continued diplomacy and covert action to keep Iran from getting the bomb. Meir Dagan has said an Israeli attack would be a ‘stupid idea.’ He is right.” http://owl.li/7j2fs

Big Read on Pakistan - Jeffrey Goldberg and Marc Ambinder have a lengthy Atlantic article on Pakistan, instability, security risks to its nuclear arsenal, and the United States’ complicated relations with this “Ally from Hell.”

--Teaser: “The Pakistani government is willing to make its nuclear weapons more vulnerable to theft by jihadists simply to hide them from the United States, the country that funds much of its military budget.” http://owl.li/7j2oJ

Welcome back to Early Warning - Here’s the top nuclear news from the week. We’ll resume our daily schedule next week. Subscribe to our morning email or follow us on twitter.

Busy week for Ploughshares - “Actor Michael Douglas has been in Washington all week to advocate for nuclear non-proliferation and funding for diplomacy in today's budget-cutting environment,” reports Josh Rogin on his interview with Under Secretary Ellen Tauscher and Michael Douglas.

--”Douglas has been making the rounds in Washington since his arrival in town last week. We spotted him at the reception to celebrate the Diplomatic Reception Rooms on Oct. 18 and then met him again at a Nov. 1 meeting on Capitol Hill of the board of directors of the Ploughshares Fund, an organization that supports the arms control agenda.” http://owl.li/7j2ml

Don’t shortchange nuclear terror prevention - “As congressional budget battles loom, 22 leading nuclear arms control advocates have joined in an effort to urge President Barack Obama to protect funds for nuclear non-proliferation and securing of loose nuclear material,” reports Josh Rogin.

--Topline from the letter: "We strongly urge you to make every effort to ensure that threat reduction and nonproliferation programs are funded at the Senate Appropriations Committee-approved level in the fiscal year 2012 energy and water appropriations bill." http://owl.li/7j2d6

“The House’s Diplomatic Folly” - A bill proposed in the House would make it “illegal for any American diplomat to have any contact with an Iranian official.” This is the wrong tack to take with Iran, write former Ambassadors William Luers and Thomas Pickering “Congress should more correctly encourage the administration to get to know Iran and Iranians as the time-tested way of protecting our interests while avoiding conflict.”http://owl.li/7j8HU

Computing better than exploding - “According to scientists and officials, the United States’ weapons laboratories, armed with some of the fastest computers on the planet, are peering ever deeper into the mystery of how thermonuclear explosions occur, gaining an understanding that in some ways goes beyond what was learned from explosive tests, which ended in 1992,” writes David Hoffman in The Washington Post.

--”There was never enough testing to establish the kind of confidence that comes from actually understanding the process of a thermonuclear explosion,” said Jeffrey Lewis. As a result of the computer modeling, he added, “for the first time, nuclear weapons designers understand why and how thermonuclear weapons work.” http://owl.li/7j2bl

Quote - “The supercommittee would be hard-pressed to find a better example of wasteful spending divorced from any coherent national security rationale than the proposed budget for nuclear weapons and related programs,” writes Lt. Gen. Robert Gard in the Bellingham Herald. http://owl.li/7j29P

New team, proposals on North Korea - As Ambassadors Glyn Davies and Clifford Hart step into new roles as Washington’s point men in talks with North Korea, Victor Cha offers some ways to transform the negotiations. Of his recommendations: improve the North’s reactor safety, talk with them about deterrence, and offer conventional energy trade (not nuclear). http://owl.li/7j28h

Iran’s regional influence still waning - “Iran may have been able to project its influence in an Iraq beset by civil war, but Tehran increasingly is on the margins as Iraq reconstitutes its national institutions,” writes Ray Takeyh in the Washington Post.

--”Whereas Washington was ill-prepared to deal with the start of Iraq’s civil war, Iran seems unable to deal with its aftermath.” http://owl.li/7j268

Quote - “Total war on Iran would be a catastrophe. Every politician involved in this business should be locked in a room and forced to read the cuttings on Afghanistan and Iraq over the past decade,” writes Simon Jenkins in The Guardian. http://owl.li/7j2hK

Schwartz on bomber, B61 costs - The new long-range strike bomber will be dual-capable, but its conventional capabilities will be tested first. “The reason is that we’re trying to control costs,” Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz said before the House Armed Services Committee.

--Also at the HASC hearing Schwartz emphasized the importance of the B61 Life Extension Program, which is expected to cost $3.9 billion. Jen DiMascio reports for Aviation Week. http://owl.li/7j9GX

--Writes Matt Leatherman, “Only one thing is really clear, and that is that no one knows what any of this actually means in cost terms. What is the marginal cost of adding nuclear capability? Of certifying that capability? Given the extraordinary secrecy surrounding the program, until CBO or GAO step up, these and most other questions are going to remain open.” http://owl.li/7j8SQ

Rocket Ads, 1947-1974 - How did defense contractors hawk their wares in the missile age? Retronaut put together a collection of vintage missile ads. http://owl.li/7j22X