Lessons from Paris: Urgent Need to Safeguard Nuclear Material

Keeping it safe - “Let there be no doubt: If the radical jihadists responsible for the latest assault on innocents in Paris get their hands on weapons of mass destruction, they will not hesitate to use them… The good news is that leaders and governments have been focused on this concern for a number of years and can point to progress in better securing and removing some of the world’s most dangerous nuclear material… we’ve reduced the number of countries possessing nuclear materials from 52 in 1992 to 24 today,” write Sam Nunn, Richard Lugar, and Des Browne for Politico.

--“More than 1,800 metric tons of weapons-usable materials remain stored in countries around the world, some of it still too poorly secured and vulnerable to theft… As recent security breaches at military facilities in the United States and elsewhere have made clear, lax regulation on military materials is incredibly dangerous… As the 2016 Nuclear Security Summit approaches, we applaud leaders for engaging on the threat and for taking the steps they have already taken to remove and secure vulnerable materials, but we have a long way to go.” Get the full story here. http://politi.co/1X7JicD

Close calls between nuclear powers - “As the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier — nearly 100,000 tons of American military might — sailed through the Sea of Japan on Oct. 27, sailors on board suddenly noticed that two Russian Tu-142 Bear bombers were charging at the massive U.S. warship. The Russian planes flew low, just 500 feet over the waves. The Reagan’s commander scrambled four Super Hornet fighter jets to chase away the Russian planes,” writes John Donnelly for Congressional Quarterly.

--“There’s even talk in NATO of training, for the first time since the Cold War’s end, for scenarios in which conventional war turns nuclear… ‘But it is the possibility of a major transformative event, such as a midair collision or a skirmish along NATO or Russian borders, that is on the rise,’ says [an NTI] report. ‘Such an incident involving the world’s two largest nuclear powers could plausibly shift alert postures and lead to a rapid series of escalatory measures precipitated by miscalculation and exacerbated by mistrust.’” Get the full story here. http://bit.ly/1QwtWQc

Roll back the Cold War talk - “A first strike with nuclear weapons in a conflict between the great powers is bound to be catastrophic,” writes Alexey Arbatov. “At a time when speculation on nuclear weapons use has increased Russia and the United States should restate their commitment to the nuclear war prevention on which they had agreed in the Cold War era… The nuclear war issues came back on people’s minds in the context of the Ukraine crisis, as references to the possible use of nuclear weapons have returned to Russia–NATO relations.”

--“Despite large cuts in nuclear arsenals during the last quarter century, the underlying nuclear realities have remained unchanged since the Cold War and still require world leaders to display the same high level of responsibility. This is even more relevant when, in contrast to the Cold War era, Moscow and Washington have shared security interests and common enemies, in the form of international terrorism and religious extremism.” Get the full story from Carnegie’s Moscow Center here. http://ceip.org/1T0VkUO

Iran dismantles against the clock - “According to the Nov. 18 International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) quarterly report, Iran has dismantled 4,530 centrifuges since the July 14 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was adopted last month,” writes Kelsey Davenport for Arms Control Today. “Action by Iran to complete fulfill its commitments under the agreement is a positive sign… [It] is tangible evidence that the agreement is working to stringently restrict Iran’s nuclear program.”

--“The IAEA also reported that it began preparatory activities to implement the increased monitoring and verification provisions under the nuclear deal. That includes implementation of Iran’s additional protocol and continuous monitoring at a number of nuclear sites… However, Iran has considerable work left to do before it receives sanctions relief under the agreement... The IAEA will need to certify that Iran has completed all of its commitments in other areas of its nuclear program.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1lwIy5b

Tweet - @TIME : Iran cutting back on nuclear programs, U.N. says http://bit.ly/215nZ0n

Fueling Iran deal opposition - “Opponents of the Iran nuclear agreement in Washington and Tehran will have their next opportunity to sabotage its implementation when the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) releases a report by Dec. 15 on its investigation into Iran’s past nuclear weapons activities,” writes Walter Pincus for The Washington Post. “Americans opposed to the deal will reopen debate over whether the IAEA can be trusted to carry out tough verification measures.”

--IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano stated, “‘The objective of our organization is not to verify the intention’ of Iran… the IAEA’s job was ‘to establish the facts to the best of our ability’ and… present ‘my final assessment on all past and present outstanding issues.’” Get the full story here. http://wapo.st/1O0YJDd

Surprising calculations on Hiroshima revealed - “[General] Marshall was the only one of those four top-level men who, before the atomic bombings, actively sought to avoid the use of the new weapons on Japanese cities or to provide an adequate warning to Japan so that noncombatants could safely flee the cities… On May 29, 1945, however,... about 10 weeks before the August 6 bombing of Hiroshima,... Marshall argued generally for not using the weapon on Japanese cities but on a “straight military [target] such as a naval installation’”, writes Barton Bernstein for Arms Control Now.

--“If the United States had issued a substantial, explicit warning to Japan before using the atomic bomb on Hiroshima; if the U.S. attacks truly had targeted manufacturing areas; or, more significantly, if the targets in Japan had been actually a military installation, the postwar dialogue about the bombings might have been different.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1PC6vVr

What comes next after Northrop’s bomber victory? - “It just won a huge contract to build the next Air Force bomber, triumphing in a years-long battle against Boeing and Lockheed Martin... But in the business of Washington, winning the contract is sometimes just the first step… Northrop now faces the expected legal challenge. If it wins that, it will have to overcome relentless lobbying and the yearly competition for funding among major weapons programs, a process that places enormous pressure on the federal budget,” writes Christian Davenport for the Washington Post.

--“As the bomber program enters a critical development stage, the Air Force’s other top-priority programs — Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter and Boeing’s KS-46 tanker (for refueling other aircraft) — will also be chasing funding from a limited pool… The Pentagon faces spending caps made more severe by automatic cuts known as sequestration... ‘You don’t like to pick favorites among your kids,’ [Todd] Harrison, [a defense analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies] said, ‘but I think they’re going to have to.’” Read the full story here. http://wapo.st/1X0JEHq

Quick Hits:

--“Analysis of IAEA Iran Safeguards Report,” by David Albright, Serena Kelleher-Vergantini, Andrea Stricker, and Daniel Schnur for the Institute for Science and International Security. http://bit.ly/1HZmt9q

--“Trident opponent Ken Livingstone joins Labour defence review,” by The Guardian. http://bit.ly/1S46vv9

--“Ready for War: Russia's Stealthy Kh-101 Cruise Missile Debuts in Syria,” by Dave Majumdar for The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1MX1Jey

Events:

--“Analysis and Testing of Missile Defenses,” featuring Michael Gilmore, from the Department of Defense. Thursday, November 19th from 12:00 to 1:15 PM at University of Maryland, 1203 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD. Read more here. http://bit.ly/1O5JqY3

--“The Billion Dollar Spy Brown Bag Lunch,” featuring author David Hoffman. Friday, November 20th from 12:00 PM - 1:30 PM at Union of Concerned Scientists, 1825 K St NW, Suite 800, Washington, DC. Email Stephen Young to RSVP here: SYoung@ucsusa.org.

--“PONI 2015 Winter Conference,” featuring Tom Countryman and TBA feature panel. Wednesday, December 9th and Thursday, December 10th at Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave., Washington, DC. RSVP here: --“3-D Printing the Bomb? The Challenge for Nuclear Nonproliferation,” featuring Tristan Volpe, Matthew Kroenig, and Bruce Goodwin. Tuesday, December 1st from 10:30 AM - 12:00 PM at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, DC. RSVP here. http://ceip.org/1j5BjiR