A Nuclear Agenda for the Second Term

On the radar: Memo to the President; Fallon on the military option; Confirmation hearing dates; Sanctions effects; State on Syria; GMD woes; and Stealthy subs.

January 17, 2013 | Edited by Mary Kaszynski

Next steps - The next four years present an opportunity for President Obama to move forward with a nuclear agenda that will “enhance U.S. and global security significantly and “cement [his] legacy on an issue of key importance for U.S. national security and the future global order,” writes Steven Pifer in a memo to the president.

--Recommended priorities: a new U.S.-Russia treaty with a topline limit of 2,500 warheads; a NATO-Russia agreement on cooperative missile defense; CTBT ratification; and preparation to multilateralize the nuclear arms reductions process. http://bit.ly/11zsIdk

--The full report on second term foreign policy challenges, “Presidential Briefing Book: Big Bets and Black Swans,” is here (pdf) http://bit.ly/S9ttG3

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Costs and consequences - “The bottom line [on the military option] is, it's not going to be a one-time shot. It's not going to be like '81 or even 2007,” said Admiral William Fallon, former commander of U.S. Central Command, said at an American Security Project event. AFP reports. http://bit.ly/10e7lOn

Save the date - The Senate Foreign Relations confirmation hearing for Sen. John Kerry will be held January 24. http://1.usa.gov/10h3b8l

--Senate Armed Services meets for the confirmation hearing of Sen. Chuck Hagel on January 31. http://1.usa.gov/XdShct

View from Tehran - Tough international sanctions are having an effect, but maybe not as much as the West believes. “Despite the hardship...Iran is far from the breaking point,” writes Sune Engel Rasmussen in Foreign Policy.

--“Many Iranians don't just blame the Islamic Republic for the dire economic conditions - they blame the financial sanctions, which they view as hostile as any armed attack,” Rasmussen concludes. http://atfp.co/US3Syj

Tweet - @NTI_GSN: Iran Meeting Plan Hangs in Limbo http://bit.ly/13Hqic0

Better late - It took two years, but the Missile Defense Agency has determined why the Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle, a component of the Ground-based Midcourse Missile Defense system, repeatedly failed intercept tests. The problem, Global Security Newswire reports, has to do with “dynamic environments that occur only in space.”http://bit.ly/W7xuIp

Kashmir conflicts - “Difficult politics in both countries [India and Pakistan] make new confidence-building measures unlikely at this time Still, neither side would gain if the nuclear-armed rivals stumbled into a full-blown conflict.” The New York Times editorial board on the recent conflicts in Kashmir. http://nyti.ms/UuBiF1

Report - “Steering Iran Away from Building Nuclear Weapons” by David Albright and Andrea Stricker. (pdf) http://bit.ly/Va2nkl

Followup - The State Department “no credible evidence to corroborate or to confirm that chemical weapons were used” by Syria last month, said a State official in response to leaked cable that reportedly asserted an incident of chemical weapons use. Josh Rogin reports. http://atfp.co/X8uqLf

Sub upgrades - High-tech redesigns for the nuclear drive system of the next-gen ballistic missile submarine will make the subs quieter and more efficient, eliminating the need for mid-life refueling. Wired’s Spencer Ackerman reports. http://bit.ly/VpMiV6