The Senate’s Nuclear Smorgasbord

All of the above - “This week, the Senate is scheduled to begin consideration of the annual defense authorization bill. In a move detached from budgetary reality, the bill backs an unaffordable plan to modernize or replace nearly every aspect of the United States’ oversized nuclear arsenal. It is an “all of the above” strategy that avoids any of the hard, but necessary, strategic choices. This is the budgetary equivalent of trying to drive 50 miles with 25 miles worth of gas and the Pentagon will not be happy with the results.”

--“The National Defense Authorization Act for FY2016 (NDAA) passed by the Senate Armed Services Committee includes a long wishlist of nuclear weapons and delivery systems. The current plan is to design and build 12 new nuclear missile submarines, as many as 100 new nuclear-capable bombers, as many as 1,100 new nuclear-tipped cruise missiles, and to modernize around 400 intercontinental ballistic missiles and the various nuclear warheads in the U.S. arsenal.”

--“The Pentagon itself is concerned about the affordability of this plan. Frank Kendall, the Pentagon’s Undersecretary of Acquisitions, characterized the nuclear modernization plans as “unaffordable.” He went on to say that updating all three legs of the U.S. nuclear force—delivery systems by land, air, and sea—concurrently will fail unless the Department of Defense can secure an additional $10 to $12 billion annually by 2021 – an extremely unlikely scenario.” Read the full piece from John Isaacs and Greg Terryn in The Hill here. http://bit.ly/1KcfwR2

Announcement - Early Warning will go on a temporary hiatus next week during the Ploughshares Fund Board Meeting. We will resume our summer publication schedule on Tuesday, June 16.

Tweet - @FitzpatrickIISS: In new op-ed, @esokova and I call for nuclear weapons security to resemble Alcatraz, not house arrest http://bit.ly/1Ih3jLv

Iran’s Nuclear Stockpile - The slow pace of Iran’s low enriched uranium stockpile reduction isn’t cause for concern just yet, argues non-proliferation expert Richard Nephew. The technical complexity of the uranium dilution process can lead to delays, he explains.

--“There are going to be technical problems in the implementation phase of the JCPOA as well. Any sufficiently complex technical process will have delays and problems. Some are going to raise concerns and others are going to be the result of technical glitches. Some patience and reserve is needed to avoid conflating the two, turning glitches into crises,” Nephew explains. Full piece at the Brookings Institution’s Markaz blog. http://brook.gs/1APMzbv

Tweet - @JeffreyGoldberg: So the leadership of the Israel Defense Forces is feeling cautiously upbeat about the coming Iran deal: http://reut.rs/1M7KkB4

Just business - Iran’s elite and ultra-loyal Revolutionary Guards Corps has long been entrenched in Iran’s economy and has profited from sanctions on Iran. “So why, as negotiators from Iran and the P5+1 powers near a June 30 deadline to agree on easing the sanctions in return for limits on the nuclear program, is the Guard supporting an emerging deal? One reason is that the IRGC is loyal to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has cautiously endorsed a nuclear deal.”

--“But another, say analysts, is that years of managing lucrative companies have created a more flexible business-first mentality, offsetting its ideological orientation. In short, sanctions relief is good for the economy, which is good for everyone’s business. And more broadly, easing the daily plight of ordinary Iranians helps guarantee survival of the Islamic Republic – thereby preserving the IRGC’s prominent role.” Full report by Scott Peterson for The Christian Science Monitor here. http://yhoo.it/1dh4PQb

Additional Protocol - Former French Ambassador François Nicoullaud delves into the legal and political complexities of the agreement on the Additional Protocol for inspections in a new piece for LobeLog. Striking a balance between Iran’s security concerns and the IAEA’s need to examine military facilities means that “negotiators on both sides must deploy all their imagination and ingenuity in finding a mutually acceptable solution to the highly divisive issue of an ‘Additional Protocol Plus.’” http://bit.ly/1HMNO8t

Quick Hits:

--“Iran nuclear talks resume at expert level in Vienna,” by Lesley Wroughton for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1EYbTXP

--“Lost Opportunity on Nuclear Disarmament,” by The New York Times Editorial Board. http://nyti.ms/1HMJLci

Events:

--Senate floor action on the annual National Defense Authorization Act. June 3-12. Webcast here. http://cs.pn/1OYfmeV

--Ploughshares Fund annual gala featuring Reza Aslan, Barbara Slavin and Gen. James Cartwright. June 8th from 6:00-8:30pm in San Francisco. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1LI0ssx

Dessert:

America’s most radioactive town - Hanford, Washington, has the dubious distinction of being America’s most radioactive town due to secret U.S. military experiments conducted during the Cold War.

--As Sarah Zhang reports for Gizmodo, “Green Run was a secret Air Force experiment that released Hanford’s largest single dose of radioactive iodine-131. On the night of December 2, 1949, at the behest of the military, scientists at Hanford let 7,000 to 12,000 curies of iodine-131 into the air, where it rode the wind as far as 200 miles.” http://bit.ly/1eR9vgO