Tight Timelines, Budget Uncertainty for New Nuclear Sub

On the radar: Paying for the boomers; Needing fewer of them; Russia’s subs don’t get out much; Using pressure effectively; On red lines; Faster than a speeding bullet; and a Failed brewery in North Korea.

May 5, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

Boomer budgets and uncertainty - “The Navy’s top submarine planners are confident they can build a new class of ballistic missile boats on time and on cost, without swallowing up the service’s entire shipbuilding budget. But to get there, they admit, everything has to go perfectly,” writes Philip Ewing at DoD Buzz in a profile of the Navy’s $100 billion sub program and the budget climate it faces.

--The first Ohio-Replacement submarine is expected to cost $11.3 billion, with construction getting underway in 2017. The Navy aspires to get the average cost of the 12 new nuclear-armed submarines down to $4.9 billion each. The tight timeline and high cost means that the Navy, according to sub program manager Capt. Dave Bishop, “needs[s] to get everything right...We Can’t afford to over-expend on anything.” http://bit.ly/YpTH9d

Fewer boomers needed - A recent Washington Post article noted that the Navy is going to have trouble building a fleet of 12 nuclear subs and replacing its aging conventional ships. If the navy wants to keep its global fleet, “the answer is to buy fewer nuclear subs,” writes Tom Collina in a letter to the editor.

--“If the Navy buys eight Ohio-class replacement subs instead of 12, it could save $15 billion over 10 years and still deploy 1,000 nuclear warheads on submarines, as planned.” http://wapo.st/15kwuui

Boomers in port - “The Russian ballistic missile submarine fleet is being modernized but conducting so few deterrent patrols that each submarine crew cannot be certain to get out of port even once a year,” writes Hans Kristensen.

--Russia plans to replace its aging fleet with new subs, increase the number of warheads on sea-based missiles, and conduct more deterrent patrols. However, the data shows that Russia’s sub training and deterrent patrols have been atrophying - with possible implications for U.S. force planning. Full analysis at the Federation of American Scientists’ Strategic Security Blog. http://bit.ly/10jmUQr

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Pressure and diplomacy - “The most effective diplomats are those who can leverage pressure and power to achieve U.S. objectives with another government -- friend or foe,” writes Amb. Bill Luers. This experience supports the recommendation - featured in a new report by the Iran Project - that the U.S. should engage in bilateral diplomacy with Iran and consider suspending or relieving sanctions if there is reciprocal action by Iran on putting verifiable limits on its nuclear program.

--“It is time to determine whether we can leverage the sanctions and other pressures that the U.S. government has so effectively created, to bring about a deal that will help us to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and to avoid another disastrous American war in the Middle East,” writes Amb. Luers. Full post in Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/12box4A

Cred lines - Advocates of military intervention often cite that U.S. credibility is at stake when a country - like Syria, Iran or North Korea - crosses a “red line” and the U.S. does not quickly follow through on a threat. Professors Daryl press and Jennifer Lind argue that history and academic literature don’t support this talking point. Opponents tend to assess US power and interests, not simply signals and resolve, write Press and Lind. Full post at Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/15r6Cg3

Hypersonics - The Air Force successfully tested a hypersonic cruise missile - the X-51A Waverider - that is capable of flying 5 times faster than the speed of sound. Last week, a B-52 bomber tested the missile off the California coast. The missile flew 230 miles in six minutes before its planned plunge into the ocean. Mark Thompson at Battleland has the story of the test and the future of hypersonic cruise missiles. http://ti.me/11NRCT8

--YouTube video of the test: http://bit.ly/16bT1Ji. Boeing promo video: http://bit.ly/16bT1Ji

Quote - We are still as fully prepared to launch an all-out thermonuclear assault on the Soviet Union as we were at the height of the Cold War. We have three ways to deliver these weapons: intercontinental ballistic missiles; the Strategic Air Command and nuclear submarines,” writes former Congressman Barney Frank in an article on excessive defense spending.

--”I do not advocate complete U.S. nuclear disarmament in the foreseeable future. But given the greatly diminished strength of what is now Russia, we would in no way lessen our national security if we directed the military leadership to recommend two of those three delivery systems and let us save additional billions by cutting out one,” writes Frank. Full article in The Portland Press Herald. http://bit.ly/10e4VKk

Alert rates at PrepCom - “Nations meeting on nuclear weapons say too many are kept at high-alert levels.” From AP. http://wapo.st/13cG5zC

Quote - "India will not be the first to use nuclear weapons, but if it is attacked with such weapons, it would engage in nuclear retaliation which will be massive and designed to inflict unacceptable damage on its adversary...The label on a nuclear weapon used for attacking India, strategic or tactical, is irrelevant from the Indian perspective," said former Indian foreign secretary Shyam Saran. Global Security Newswire has the quote. http://bit.ly/YpShLV

Events:

--”Sustaining the Nuclear Enterprise,” breakfast speech from Don Cook, NNSA’s Deputy Administrator for Defense Programs. May 7th from 8:00-9:00am @ the Capitol Hill Club. RSVP and details here. http://conta.cc/162LaOe

--Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the Air Force Budget with Air Force Secretary Michael Donley and Air Force Chief of Staff Ge. Mark Welsh. May 7, 9:30am. Info on the committee website. http://1.usa.gov/100okE1

--Report Launch: “Forging a Consensus for a Sustainable U.S. Nuclear Posture” with authors Clark Murdock, Stephanie Spies and John Warden. May 7th from 5:30-7:00pm at CSIS.

--Senate Armed Services Subcommittee hearing on strategic forces programs in the NNSA budget. With Neile Miller, Don Cook, Adm. John Richardson, David Huizenga and David Trimble. May 8th at 2:30pm. Webcast here. http://1.usa.gov/100okE1

--"Plutopia: Nuclear Families, Atomic Cities, and the Great Soviet and American Plutonium Disasters." Kate Brown. May 8, 4:00-5:30pm @ Wilson Center, sixth floor, Reagan Building. Details here. http:/ http://owl.li/kDW47

--House Armed Services Subcommittee hearing on strategic forces programs in the NNSA budget. With Gen. Robert Kehler, Madelyn Creedon, Neile Miller, Don Cook, Adm. John Richardson, Andrew Weber, David Huizenga and Peter Winokur. May 9th from 9:00-11:00am. Webcast here. http://bit.ly/16NngpK

Dessert:

Thirst vs red tape - ”There is little public information on North Korea’s beer market, but one thing seems clear — demand outstrips supply,” writes John Ruwitch for Reuters. So, in 2011, some Chinese investors attempted to startup a brewery in North Korea’s second largest city. They carefully moved their investments and supplies into North Korea, secured approval of city and provincial leaders, and sought authorization from Pyongyang to increase production. But Pyongyang never responded to the request and, lacking final approval, the brewery closed.

--As the brewery closed up shop, one official told the investors, “It’s not that we don’t want to do it, and it’s not that our senior leaders or the central government don’t want to do it, but we just don’t have practical experience with this kind of thing.” Full story here. http://nyti.ms/18MZlne