The Best, Lasting Solution on Iran

On the radar: Cordesman on Iran policy; Negotiations resume, Parchin to open; Russia arsenal modernizes, shrinks; Cuba, Iraq, and now Iran; IAEA still has serious concerns; Cooperative missile defense already here; Constraining Iran’s nuclear options; and Fact-checking Iran policy.

March 6, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

The waiting option - Given the many risks of a preventive strike against Iran, “The best, lasting solution to Iran’s nuclear and missile programs is some form of negotiated political solution, and one driven by compromise and a ‘carrot and stick’ approach,” Anthony Cordesman writes for CNN

--”The prospects of such a change really altering Iran’s actions and ambitions is all too uncertain...yet successful negotiations, containment and waiting do seem to be far better than talking about war as if it had predictable and safe results.” http://owl.li/9u3J4

Negotiations and inspections - The P5+1 accepted Iran’s offer to resume talks for the first time since last January. Timing and location TBD.

--IAEA inspectors also might be allowed to inspect Iran’s military base at Parchin, where suspected weapons-related research may have once been carried out. A release from Iran’s representatives at the IAEA suggested the offer of inspections was conditional and limited to part of the areas the IAEA wished to inspect. The New York Times has the story. http://owl.li/9u3SX

Russian Nuclear Arsenal 2012 - “The size of Russia’s ICBM force is likely to decline over the next decade – with or without a new nuclear arms control treaty,” writes Hans Kistensen of the Federation of American Scientists. Russia is planning to retire more than two-thirds of its ICBM force by the early 2020s. While deployment of new missiles will increase, it will not offset retirement of the old. http://owl.li/9u3UC

--Full Report: “Russia Nuclear Forces, 2012” in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. (pdf) http://owl.li/9u3Yw

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Where sanctions can lead - “Today, the sanctions regime in Iran is resembling, more and more, the Iraqi and Cuban cases,” writes Gary Sick for CNN. Where sanctions were originally intended to influence decision-makers, the current sanctions regime is causing indiscriminate economic pain on Iranians.

--”If you set an impossible objective and then begin imposing sanctions to achieve it, the result is always more sanctions, until you arrive at the point where there are no more sanctions and only force remains. We are approaching that point.” http://owl.li/9u40R

Concerns persist - “"The agency continues to have serious concerns regarding possible military dimensions to Iran's nuclear program," IAEA Director Amano told the Board of Governors. "As Iran is not providing the necessary cooperation …[the agency is unable] to conclude that all nuclear material in Iran is in peaceful activities.” From Global Security Newswire. http://owl.li/9u42z

Missile defense cooperation - Some in Congress seek to create obstacles to missile defense cooperation with Russia by blocking technology and data sharing. “They ignore the reality that the United States already exchanges data with Russia under several treaties and standing arrangements implemented by both Republican and Democratic administrations,” write Brig. Gen. John Adams and Janne Nolan in The Hill.

--Given the potential benefits of closer cooperation with Russia on missile defense, and the existing technological and policy frameworks for such cooperation, “lawmakers should take time to consider the views of military and political experts from across the spectrum about the potential advantages of these efforts for protecting American and allied security against 21st century threats.” http://owl.li/9u44j

Constraining Iran’s nuclear options -”As we seek and engage in negotiations for a long-term solution, the key goal must be, at the same time, to implement additional measures to delay, thwart, and deter Iran’s acquisition of nuclear capabilities and inhibit its ability to break out,” write David Albright and Paul Brannan in a new ISIS report.

--Recommendations include more effective legal mechanisms to prevent Iran from acquiring sensitive technology, increasing economic and financial sanctions, and interim negotiations to limit Iran’s breakout capabilty.

--Full Report: Preventing Iran from Getting Nuclear Weapons: Constraining its Future Options. (pdf) http://owl.li/9u3Pd

Tweet - @DEsfandiary: “#Iran is already nuclear 'capable' so that is a meaningless red line says Fitzpatrick from @IISS_org bit.ly/ylQwCI

Stump speech fact-checked - “Romney’s critique of Obama’s handling of Iran is missing important context, even by the standards of campaign fare,” writes The Washington Post’s Glenn Kessler on the claim that Obama is weak on Iran.

--”Sanctions on Iran have become robust and Tehran is more internationally isolated since Obama took office,” Kessler notes. “Meanwhile, the military option is a grave choice — one that Obama’s predecessor never seriously considered.” http://owl.li/9u46V