Rifts Deepening on Iran Policy

On the radar: Obama and McConnell; GOP-Military rift; O’Hanlon on smart nuclear cuts; Nukes & the Chicago Summit; Kerry on Romney’s Iran policy; Iran’s elections and the nuclear standoff; Unrealistic B-61 plans; Bishops call for nuke cuts; and Jon Stewart mediates on Iran.

March 7, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Quotes - “If some of these folks think that it’s time to launch a war, they should say so, and they should explain to the American people exactly why they would do that and what the consequences would be,” said President Obama yesterday. http://owl.li/9vDRy

--”I made a recommendation last night for something that I think might convince the Iranians that we’re serious about it, and that would be to debate and vote on a resolution authorizing the use of force. That doesn’t guarantee that force would be used...,” said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. http://owl.li/9vDQ7

GOP at odds with military on Iran - “The rift between the uniformed leadership and the Republican senators is unusual. On Iran...the generals seem wary of the GOP’s hawkishness and more in agreement with the White House’s measured approach,” writes Josh Gerstein in Politico. http://owl.li/9vzdq

Smart nuclear savings - “It is important to keep strategic nuclear parity with Russia...as well as a reliable, safe, and dependable inventory of nuclear warheads,” Brookings scholar Michael O’Hanlon told the Senate Budget Committee yesterday, “But these goals can be achieved more economically.”

--O’Hanlon argues for cutting back to 8 SSBNs and 250 ICBMs, while “retaining a reliable, safe nuclear deterrent that is the equal of Russia’s and superior to China’s, even as the United States pursues lower force levels through arms control.” http://owl.li/9vz3d

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Iran nuclear talks - “Many diplomats in western capitals agree that the upcoming round of negotiations between Iran and world powers – the first in more than a year – must produce concrete and speedy results if it is to prevent another Middle East war,” Financial Times reports. But the level of distrust with Iran is high, and few diplomats have confidence that negotiations will produce a breakthrough. http://owl.li/9vyZA

Tweet - @McFaul: "... the Kremlin signaled on Tuesday that it was prepared for its relationship with Washington to get back to normal." nyti.ms/xotuv6

NATO & nukes in Chicago - NATO members are set to address the role of nuclear weapons in their deterrence posture at the Chicago summit in May. Expectations should be modest, notes Amb. Steven Pifer of Brookings. Alliance leaders are likely to reiterate the need for nuclear transparency and restate that nonstrategic nuclear weapons be included in a next round of actions with Moscow.

--It might not be a bad thing if NATO kicks the nuclear can down the road in this summit, argues Amb. Pifer. For example, by not boldly calling for unilateral withdrawal of U.S. nuclear weapons from Europe, U.S. negotiators would retain a bargaining chip with Russia and preserve a long-term consensus within NATO for future arms control efforts. http://owl.li/9vyX2

Shots fired - “Governor Romney's op-ed [on Iran policy] does not even do readers the courtesy of describing how a President Romney would do anything different from what the Obama administration has already done,” said Sen. John Kerry on the Senate Floor. Josh Rogin has the full story. http://owl.li/9vzgG

Nuclear politics - Khamenei’s big win in Iran’s recent parliamentary elections - his ultraconservative supporters won more than 75% of the seats - may clarify Iran’s position in nuclear negotiations, writes Matt Duss of the Center for American Progress.

--“[Khamenei] may feel more confident in allowing his representatives to engage with the P5+1 countries on the nuclear issue in a way that they have thus far been unwilling to do,” Duss concludes. http://owl.li/9vz4V

Quote - “The wish list had gotten huge. Everything was added in. And for whatever reason, we decided that was the set of options we were going to look at. And that's what they did the detailed cost estimate on. When we looked at that, I mean, it was unrealistic,” said Brig. Gen. Sandra Finan of the previous plans for the B-61 LEP in testimony before the House Energy and Water Appropriations Subcommittee hearing on the NNSA budget. http://owl.li/9vzbm

Political analysis - “So, [President Obama] politically is fine where he is. He can go further right and he will be fine. He can be even tougher on the Iranians. But he doesn't have any space to try negotiations, to try diplomacy. And yet, it's difficult to see how you resolve the crisis without trying diplomacy,” said Fareed Zakaria of CNN. http://owl.li/9vzf1

Catholics for nuke cuts - The United States Conference of Catholic Bishops is calling on Catholics to “urge [the president] to end outdated US nuclear war-fighting strategy, dramatically reduce the number of US nuclear weapons and the number of submarines, missiles, and bombers that carry those weapons, and take US nuclear weapons off high alert.” http://owl.li/9vziq

Jon Stewart on Iran, Israel, and the U.S. - “Words of Warcraft: With threats and taunts mounting, can we get a responsible party to break up this Iranian-Israeli schoolyard fight before someone gets hurt?” From The Daily Show last night. http://owl.li/9vzCr