Diplomacy and Political Choices with Iran

On the radar: How to talk with Iran; Tough political choices; @McFaul; U.S.-Israel and Iran; Viewing Yongbyon; Turkey radar online; Guatemala ratifies; and the MENWFZ and Iran.

January 17, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Lessons for talking with Iran - U.S. diplomacy with Iran has faltered, but can still succeed, writes Trita Parsi in The Washington Post. Drawing lessons from Turkey and Brazil’s interactions with Iran on the nuclear fuel swap proposal, Parsi recommends: talk with various players in the Iranian regime, keep talks respectful, expand the agenda to include regional security and human rights, focus on inspecting and verifying Iran’s enrichment capabilities, and enlist the help of allies outside of the P5+1 to bridge the current impasse. http://owl.li/8wqiV

Political choices and Iran policy - The Obama administration has some tough choices on Iran policy. Enforcing the latest U.S. sanctions against Iran’s oil exports could pinch the oil market during an economic recovery and alienate allies. On the other hand, using the sanctions’ waiver provisions could open the President to political attacks in an election season. Mark Landler of The New York Times has the story.

--A early test for the administration comes at the end of February, when sanctions provisions mandate that the U.S. cut off financial institutions that conduct non-oil transactions with the Central Bank of Iran, Landler notes. http://owl.li/8wqbw

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New on the Twitters - U.S. Ambassador to the Russian Federation, Michael @McFaul.

Event - Michael Eisenstadt, Bruce Riedel and Barbara Slavin discuss “U.S.-Israel and Iran: Looming Military Confrontation?” at the Atlantic Council today at 3. Event details here. http://owl.li/8wq8T

Yongbyon then and now - New satellite photos of North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear facilities show progress at a number of new buildings including a uranium enrichment plant. Adam Rawnsley at Danger Room has the story. http://owl.li/8wq77

--See the original analysis of Siegfried Hecker, Robert Carlin and Niko Milonopoulos in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. http://owl.li/8wq5g

Event - The Arms Control Association hosts “The Future of the U.S. Nuclear Arsenal: Issues and Policy Options” featuring Morton Halperin, Hans Kristensen, Amy Woolf and Daryl Kimball this Friday at 9:30am. RSVP here. http://owl.li/8wpVY

Responding to Iran - Aggressive actions, like targeting Iranian scientists, “are self-defeating in the sense that they do little to slow Iran’s nuclear program and playing into the regime’s hands as it seeks to fracture the international community,” writes Ray Takeyh. “The best means of holding the coalition together is to stress that it is Iran’s behavior that remains outside the parameters of legality so long as Tehran continues to enrich uranium in defiance of U.N. resolutions and threatens to imperil peaceful maritime traffic.” http://owl.li/8wq2b

Radar online - An early warning radar that is part of NATO’s missile defense system is now operational in Turkey. http://owl.li/8wrJp

Guatemala ratifies CTBT - Guatemala is the 156th country to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. Cuba and Dominica are the only countries in Latin America and the Caribbean that have not signed or ratified the treaty. Global Security Newswire has the story. http://owl.li/8wrMm

Iran and the MENWFZ - “Many people assume that Israel must choose between letting Iran develop nuclear weapons or attacking before it gets the bomb. But this is a false choice. There is a third option: working toward a nuclear weapons-free zone in the Middle East. And it is more feasible than most assume,” write Shibley Telhami and Steven Kull in The New York Times. http://owl.li/8wpZw