Rebutting the Call for Attacks on Iran

On the radar: Kahl rebutts Kroenig; $6 billion without a mission; 56 million gallons of nuclear waste; Flawed logic and the military option; Polish preview of EPAA costs; IAEA in Tehran; Regime change without ground invasion; the Eldest little Kim; and WSJ op-ed or 24 plotline.

January 18, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

”Not Time to Attack Iran” - The lesson of preventive war against Iraq is that “Washington should not choose war when there are still other options, and it should not base its decision to attack on best-case analyses of how it hopes the conflict will turn out,” writes Colin Kahl in response to a recent essay by Matthew Kroenig in Foreign Affairs arguing that it is “Time to Attack Iran.”

--Rebutting Kroenig’s essay, Kahl argues that an Iranian nuclear weapon is not imminent, that the U.S. likely cannot keep the conflict from escalating into a “messy and violent affair,” that a U.S. attack would rally Iranians around nuclear hard-liners, and that Kroenig’s recommended strike would likely be “a prelude to containment, not a substitute for it.” http://owl.li/8xRge

Cancelling the CMRR - Nuclear policy experts and members of Congress question the need for a new facility to produce plutonium pits. But the project has continued, despite increasing costs - now $6 billion, up from the original estimate of $375 million.

--Quote from the press release: “This facility is a poster child for government waste...Why are we designing a multi-billion dollar facility that has no clear mission?” said POGO Senior Investigator Peter Stockton.

--Recommendations from the report: Admin and Congress should cancel the CMRR-NF, NNSA should continue using existing facilities, and Congress should require independent cost estimates of major DOE constructions projects. Read the full report here. http://owl.li/8xRjv

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”Cleaning Up a Cold War Mess” - “The U.S. government is building a treatment plant to stabilize and contain 56 million gallons of waste left from a half-century of nuclear weapons production.”

--”The radioactive sludge is so dangerous that a few hours of exposure could be fatal. A major leak could contaminate water supplies serving millions across the Northwest. The cleanup is the most complex and costly environmental restoration ever attempted. And the project is not going well.” Report on the Hanford Site from USA Today. http://owl.li/8xRly

Flawed logic and the military option - The argument for a preventive strike against Iran is logically flawed, write Alexandre Debs and Nuno Monteiro in Foreign Affairs. The authors identify three problems with the case for war: it’s inconsistent - assuming Iran would be reckless with a bomb, but timid after a preventive attack - misreads nuclear history, and underestimates the United States’ ability to contain a nuclear Iran. http://owl.li/8xRni

EPAA costs kicking in - The President’s FY2013 budget request will likely include $200 million in planning money for a missile defense system in Poland. $50 million will come from the Navy and $150 million from the Missile Defense Agency.

--This is an opening budget bid, as future budgets will likely seek funds for construction in 2015, gear and munitions in 2016, testing in 2017, and operations thereafter. The National Journal has the story. http://owl.li/8xRJ9

IAEA talks in Tehran - “We are open to discuss any issues that the IAEA is interested to discuss, within the framework of its mandate of course ... I am optimistic that we will have a constructive, professional, technical meeting,” said Iran’s IAEA envoy Ali Asghar Soltanieh. A high-level IAEA team is scheduled to hold three days of talks in Tehran from Jan 29-31.

--“The IAEA delegation, to be headed by Deputy Director General Herman Nackaerts, is expected to seek explanations regarding intelligence information indicating Iran has engaged in research and development relevant for nuclear weapons,” reports Fredrik Dahl of Reuters. http://owl.li/8xRLu

The regime changers chime in - “If strikes [on Iran] are chosen, it would be far better to put the regime at risk than to leave it wounded but still nuclear capable and ready to fight another day,” write Jamie Fly and Gary Schmitt in response to Kroenig’s Foreign Affairs essay.

--”It would not even need to be a ground invasion aimed specifically at toppling the government. The United States would basically need to expand its list of targets beyond the nuclear program to key command and control elements of the Republican Guard and the intelligence ministry, and facilities associated with other key government officials.” http://owl.li/8xRE7

“My Father Kim Jong Il and Me” - That’s the title of a new book on Kim Jong Il’s eldest son, Kim Jong Nam, has some sensational quotes from the exiled little Kim. “Jong Un will just be a figurehead,” the book quotes Jong Nam as saying. “As a matter of common sense, a transfer to the third generation is unacceptable,” Kim Jong Nam was quoted as saying, “The power elite that have ruled the country will continue to be in control.”

--The last time Jong Nam made the news, he was caught trying to enter Japan with a fake passport in order to visit Tokyo Disneyland. The Washington Post has the story. http://owl.li/8xRGj

Real WSJ byline - “Iran can sea-launch from off our coasts. Germany planned this in World War II. If cocaine can be smuggled into the U.S. without interdiction, we cannot dismiss the possibility of an Iranian nuke ending up in Manhattan.” From novelist Mark Helprin in The Wall Street Journal. http://owl.li/8xRNr