Growing Divide Between GOP, Military Leaders on Iran

On the radar: Heeding military commanders’ advice; Nuclear Spending and New START; Maddow in Mexico reporting on GTRI; War games look grim; Obama Nowruz message; Latest Goldberg prediction on Israeli strike; North Korea update; Call for transparency on tac nukes; and Acton reduces expectations.

March 20, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Heeding the experts on Iran - “It is striking...how willing [the Republican presidential candidates] are to dismiss outright the opinions of America's national security professionals when it comes to Iran,” writes Gen. Joseph Hoar, former CENTCOM commander, in The Philadelphia Inquirer. “Virtually all of America's most experienced national security leaders have advised caution.” http://owl.li/9Lume

Reality Check - Members of Congress who argue that nuclear modernization is underfunded in the president’s spending plan are overlooking some key facts, write Daryl Kimball and Tom Collina in an Arms Control Association issue brief.

--Spending for nuclear weapons maintenance infrastructure has increased under Obama. Congress, not the president, appropriates - so Congress is responsible for last year’s cut to the NNSA weapons activities request. The Budget Control Act changes everything. Modernization plans are moving forward. And New START is still in U.S. interests. http://owl.li/9Luwo

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US helps Mexico remove its HEU - As of yesterday, Rachel Maddow of MSNBC reports, “the entire nation of Mexico no longer has any highly enriched uranium, because [the U.S. government] just removed it. It’s like a spy movie how we did it.”

--Maddow was on assignment in Mexico with NNSA’s Global Threat Reduction Initiative as they locked down the last of Mexico’s HEU and returned it to the US for safe keeping. Watch last night’s show here. http://owl.li/9LuFH

Iran war games - “A classified war simulation held this month to assess the repercussions of an Israeli attack on Iran forecasts that the strike would lead to a wider regional war, which could draw in the United States and leave hundreds of Americans dead.” Mark Mazzetti and Thom Shanker report for The New York Times. http://owl.li/9LuHM

Obama Nowruz message - President Obama gave best wishes to those celebrating Nowruz, the Persian New Year. The statement gives emphasis to the “common humanity” shared with the people of Iran.

--On the policy side, the statement draws attention to Iran’s efforts to cutoff its citizens electronic communications. “The Iranian government has a responsibility to respect [its people’s right to think and speak for themselves], just as it has a responsibility to meet its obligations with regard to its nuclear program,” said the President. http://owl.li/9LuKM

Goldberg barometer - Journalist Jeffrey Goldberg’s predictions of the likelihood of an Israeli strike on Iran change frequently. He has argued that Israel would strike in 2010, that strikes are imminent in 2012, and that talks of strikes are a bluff. This week, Goldberg is convinced threats of an Israeli strike are not a bluff.

--Goldberg reports that Israeli political leadership harbors best-case scenario assumptions on the consequences of military strikes on Iran. By the Goldberg barometer, strikes are imminent once again. http://owl.li/9LuyF

Iran hearing - Colin Kahl testifies before the House Homeland Security Committee on the risks of military action against Iran tomorrow at 9:30am. Webcast and testimony here. http://owl.li/9LuMK

Tweet - @armscontrolnow: “North Korea invites UN nuclear agency to return to country, but details not revealed. http://owl.li/9Lu9N”

Tips for negotiating with Iran - Trita Parsi in Time offers five tips for the President on negotiations with Iran: Don’t allow domestic politics to define strategy; Broaden the agenda beyond the nuclear program; Bring mediators into the conversation; Get real on uranium enrichment in Iran; and Sanctions only work if they can be lifted. http://owl.li/9LuDG

NATO’s open secret - “Even before dealing with the question of tactical nuclear weapon withdrawal...it would be smart to revise the neither-confirm-nor-deny secrecy policy,” write Francesco Calogero and Giorgio LaMalfa in The Bulletin.

--”NATO should announce [in the upcoming Defense and Deterrence Posture Review] the exact numbers [and locations] of tactical nuclear weapons...This would allow, and even encourage, NATO members to have a more open, frank, and democratic discussion of the pros and cons of the continued presence of these US weapons.” http://owl.li/9Lupo

Article - “Bombs Away? Being Realistic about Deep Nuclear Reductions,” by James Acton in The Washington Quarterly. (pdf) http://owl.li/9LuAC