Nuclear Budget Busters

On the radar: Costly and unaccountable; The only option with Iran; Times change, as do force postures; Negotiating space; Report: Iran’s Internal Politics; Assumed but undeclared in North Korea; Iran sanctions waived for 11 countries; Picking a warhead for LRSO; Why Kazakhstan left the nuclear club; and Aussies for zero.

March 21, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

DOE’s most unaccountable projects - Between cost overruns and proliferation concerns, Department of Energy projects are known to be high-risk. The Alliance for Nuclear Accountability identifies the seven riskiest in a new report.

The total cost for the programs, including the plutonium facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory, warhead Life Extension Programs, and the mixed oxide fuel plutonium plant, is more than $55 billion.

--Get the full report here. (pdf) http://owl.li/9N29L

The only option - “Diplomacy is the only alternative for those seeking a lasting and sustainable solution to the Iran nuclear issue and peace in the region. The other options are recipes for war and in all probability a nuclear-armed Iran,” write Carl Bildt and Erkki Tuomioja, the foreign ministers of Sweden and Finland, in The New York Times . http://owl.li/9N2xK

Higher priorities for 21st century security - “Bipartisan military leaders and security experts say – and have said for years – that we can maintain our security at [nuclear force] levels even lower than what’s under consideration...And in an era where our greatest security challenges are not nuclear superpower rivals, and where every defense dollar is under close scrutiny, the Pentagon itself has higher priorities,” writes Heather Hurlburt in The Hill. http://owl.li/9N2iN

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Pivoting back to diplomacy - After months of saber-rattling, there seem to be subtle signs from both Iran and the U.S. of a willingness to return to serious talks, writes Barbara Slavin. “However, it remains unclear whether the Obama administration and its partners will put forward proposals that could provide Iran a face-saving way to reduce tensions.” http://owl.li/9N26N

Domestic politics and influencing Iran - “Despite the regime-change fantasies of some American opponents of the Iranian government, responsibility for altering the system should and will almost certainly remain with the Iranian people,” concludes a new report from the Atlantic Council’s Iran Task Force.

--The authors recommend steps for the U.S. to open more political space in Iran, including: negotiate seriously with the Iranian government over the nuclear question, raise awareness of human rights abuses, stop threatening to attack, and convince Israel that starting a conflict will push Iran to develop nuclear weapons.

--Full report, “Iran’s Internal Politics: The Supreme Leader Grows Ever Lonelier at the Top,” here. (pdf) http://owl.li/9N2ce

Hecker on N. Korea’s enrichment facilities - Siegfried Hecker, the Stanford scientist to whom North Korea revealed its uranium enrichment program, is convinced the North has undeclared enrichment sites.

--”The main change in my analysis is just that it became much clearer that they have [had successful uranium enrichment experiments] someplace else,” said Hecker. “We don’t know how big an operation, but it must have been big enough that they had some confidence they could build a similar, but larger, capability at Yongbyon.” WSJ has the story. http://owl.li/9N2h0

Sanctions exemptions - “The Obama administration on Tuesday exempted Japan and 10 European nations from the prospect of biting sanctions intended to punish countries that continue to buy oil from Iran, but it left open the fate of other major importers, including China, India and South Korea.” Steven Lee Myers reports for The New York Times. http://owl.li/9N2e2

Tweet - @basic2010: “New #BASIC #Trident Commission report by Keith Hartley examines costs around next generation #UK #SSBN options” http://owl.li/9N2t0

Unclear warhead plan for new cruise missile - The Air Force is studying ($600 million over 5 years) options for replacing the Air Launched Cruise Missile in 2030, but hasn’t chosen a nuclear warhead for it yet, reports Elaine Grossman for Global Security Newswire. The ALCM’s current warhead, the W-80, would need a life extension program, but such plans appear suspended if not canceled. Other warhead candidates include the W-84 or B-61.

--”Given the overwhelming capability that we have in the highly accurate, long-range ballistic missile force -- and the gravity bombs that can also be delivered by aircraft -- it’s hard for me to see why an air-delivered nuclear cruise missile is needed, as well, in this day and age...If the mission is deterrence, then it’s clearly not needed,” said Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists. http://owl.li/9N2B6

Why Kazakhstan went nonnuclear - “Our bold actions [in getting rid of our nuclear arsenal] helped us ensure better security and stability as well as attract much-needed foreign investment and conduct successful economic reforms, thus laying the ground for prosperity,” writes Erlan Idrissov, Ambassador of Kazakhstan, in response to a New York Times editorial on the nuclear guidance review.

--”By reducing its nuclear arsenal, we believe that [the U.S.] can set an example for nations everywhere and advance the dream of a future free from the threat of nuclear war,” the ambassador concludes. http://owl.li/9N2v5

Aussies for zero - Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard and Opposition Leader Tony Abbott reaffirmed their support for eliminating nuclear weapons in a motion in the lower house of parliament.

--"We are realistic about eliminating nuclear weapons...It will be difficult, it will take time, and ultimately it will require a stable international security environment...But it can be done," said Prime Minister Gillard. http://owl.li/9N2Dy