IDF Chief: Iran Undecided on Building Nuclear Weapons

On the radar: Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz on Iran’s intentions; North Korea Test #3; Pakistan’s IRBM; Pakistan’s view of deterrence; Nuke numbers from the House; 4 steps for nuclear security; Nuclear war and climate catastrophe; Rogozin promoted; and The rest of the atomic bombing campaign.

April 25, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Quote - “Iran is moving step-by-step towards a point where it will be able to decide if it wants to make a nuclear bomb. It has not decided yet whether to go the extra mile,” Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, head of the IDF, said in an interview with Haaretz.

-- “In my opinion, [Khamenei] will be making a huge mistake if he does that and I don't think he will want to go the extra mile," Gantz added. “I think the Iranian leadership is comprised of very rational people.” http://owl.li/avEHL

Tweet - @armscontrolnow: “China makes veiled warning to N Korea regarding possible 3rd nuclear test.” http://owl.li/avHqN

--Resources for if/after North Korea tests: Arms Control Now, Arms Control Wonk, All Things Nuclear, CISAC, and 38 North.

--Ploughshares Fund resources: Joe Cirincione, Philip Yun, Paul Carroll, and Joel Rubin.

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Pakistan tests - Pakistan announced a successful test of a new intermediate range ballistic missile today, The New York Times reports. Experts say the missile could have a range of up to 620 miles. http://owl.li/avEJG

Pakistan’s doctrine - “Pakistan's nuclear program is run by military officers who think of the Bomb in military terms, and who are methodically filling in perceived shortfalls in nuclear capabilities as a means to shore up deterrence against a stronger neighbor. The most likely need for deterrence is after iconic targets in India are attacked by individuals based and trained in Pakistan,” writes Michael Krepon of the Stimson Center. http://owl.li/avENQ

Budget numbers update - The House Energy and Water Subcommittee Appropriators draft bill provides $11.28 billion for NNSA, a slight cut from the request and a slight increase over last year’s enacted level. The bill increases funding for the Global Threat Reduction Initiative, cuts funding for the Mixed Oxide fuel facility, and supports the CMRR delay. Nick Roth and Kingston Reif have the numbers and analysis at Nukes of Hazard.

--Next up in the 2013 budget process: the full House Appropriations Committee takes up the bill at 1pm today. http://owl.li/avFqa

Event - “Nuclear Weapons Spending in the 2013 Budget,” a Capitol Hill Briefing with Chris Preble, Russell Rumbaugh, and Laura Peterson. Monday April 30 at noon. Event details and RSVP here. http://owl.li/avFsS

After Seoul - “As the preparatory progress of the 2014 summit begins, it is vital to consider more realistic and attainable results rather than broad symbolic calls to action,” writes IISS’ Jasper Pandza in The Bulletin.

--Pandza’s recommendations: 1) Take concrete, on-the-ground steps to improve nuclear materials security. 2) “Make implementing regulation easier.” 3) “Introduce regular peer reviews of national security regulations.” 4) “Keep talks alive,” possibly modifying the summit format to integrate it into other political processes. http://owl.li/avEQ2

Consequences - A limited nuclear nuclear war, say between Pakistan and India, would cause a global famine that could kill a billion people, according to a new report from International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War. AFP has the story. http://owl.li/avERz

Rogozin promoted - Dmitry Rogozin, Russia’s representative to NATO and point person on missile defense talks, has been promoted to deputy prime minister. Rogozin will “stay on as head of a Kremlin working group on cooperation with NATO on missile defense issues,” RIA Novosti reports. http://owl.li/avEUA

--It’s unclear if in his new position he will continue to contribute colorful quotes like this classic from July: “I had the impression that I was transported in a time machine back several decades, and in front of me sat two monsters of the Cold War, who looked at me not through pupils, but targeting sights.” http://owl.li/avFz4

3 or 4 a month - In 1945 the U.S. had contingency plans to drop more atomic bombs on Japan and compel it to capitulate. How many and at what frequency was a key question. “So you can figure on three a month with a possibility of a fourth one. If you get the fourth one, you won’t get it next month. That is up to November,” said Col. L. E. Seeman to Gen. John Hull on August 13, 1945. Alex Wellerstein at Restricted Data has the story and asks how the world would have perceived the U.S. and the bomb had an atomic bombing campaign continued past Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

--Quote: “The problem now is whether or not, assuming the Japanese do not capitulate, continue on dropping them every time one is made and shipped out there or whether to hold them up as far as the dropping is concerned and then pour them all on in a reasonably short time,” said Gen. Hull in the August 1945 conversation. http://owl.li/avFuV