Pickering: Openings for Progress with Iran After Istanbul

On the radar: Iran, Istanbul and the future; Self-preservation at the labs; BMD dreams and disappointment; A Chinese truck in Pyongyang; Bipartisanship and nuclear policy; and Nonpro double-talk.

April 24, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Promising but indefinite - “Iran and the P5+1 are off to a start that is positive enough to show promise and indefinite enough to leave open doubts about what will happen next,” writes Amb. Thomas Pickering in The Bulletin.

--“Iran's recent proposal to cease some uranium enrichment activity in return for fuel for its Tehran Research Reactor seems a starting point for talks that could expand by steps and stages,” Amb. Pickering concludes, provided the West is willing to match Iranian concessions, including dialing back sanctions. http://owl.li/au2sX

Sacrificing for the nukes - Federal budgets are getting slashed, but the nuclear weapons labs want to be exempt from cuts - and want the Pentagon and other federal agencies to make sacrifices in order to bolster nuclear budgets. This according to a “devastating” internal memo from the labs, made public by the Project on Government Oversight.

--The memo’s author “called the labs ‘an oversized post-Cold War nuclear weapons infrastructure’ that federal managers have failed to reduce in size as the need for their work declined,” reports John Fleck of The Albuquerque Journal.

--“The managers of the weapon program now seem to believe their mission is to increase the weapon program budget and protect payroll,” said Bob Peurifoy, a retired Sandia manager. Read the full story (paywall). http://owl.li/au2ve

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What missile defense? - The idea of missile defense has captivated many experts and politicians. Several decades and hundreds of billions of dollars later, and U.S. missile defense programs remain plagued with technical difficulties, writes David Hoffman at Foreign Policy.

--“Certainly, the quest for workable missile defense will go on. But it is time to be realistic -- and not romantic -- about the technology and its limitations.” http://owl.li/au2Cf

Hearing - Michael Gilmore, Bradley Roberts, Patrick O'Reilly, and others testify before SASC on ballistic missile defense policies and budget. Tomorrow at 2:30pm. http://owl.li/au4HY

TEL-ing numbers from China - Last week, Pyongyang hauled a mockup missile through its streets on a transporter erector launcher (TEL) that appears to be of Chinese origin. The Chinese truck manufacturer, Jeffrey Lewis points out, is actually a state-owned defense firm that appears to only produce TELs for hauling Chinese missiles.

--By transferring a TEL to North Korea, Lewis argues that China violated the Missile Technology Control Regime. http://owl.li/au2GF

Nuclear security is bipartisan - In a Washington Post op-ed Henry Kissinger and Brent Scowcroft argued that strategy should drive the number of weapons America retains, that verification is key to reductions, and that, beyond a certain level, the U.S. should expand reduction efforts beyond just itself and Russia.

--These principles were key to the Obama administration’s approach to New START, and Republican policymakers, including Gov. Romney, should take note, writes Jon Wolfsthal in The Huffington Post. http://owl.li/au2KM

DPRK to test “soon” - “Preparations [for North Korea’s third nuclear test] are almost complete," a senior official with close ties to Pyongyang and Beijing told Reuters. http://owl.li/au2ID

Diplomatic opportunity - The Istanbul talks established a foundation for diplomacy and quieted calls for military action, writes Daryl Kimball in The CS Monitor. Moving forward, a good first step would be a deal to provide Iran with fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor in exchange for halting 20% uranium enrichment.

--“Resolving the nuclear issue will require sufficient pressure and inducements to convince Iran’s current and future leaders they stand to gain more from forgoing nuclear weapons than from any decision to build them,” Kimball concludes. “Much more needs to be done, but serious, sustained diplomacy remains the best option on the table.” http://owl.li/au2Ak

Double-talk - Washington was quick to condemn North Korea’s missile launch and question China’s selling missile technology, but strangely quiet when India tested its long-range Agni-5 missile last week.

--“That makes nonproliferation for the United States not a principle but a negotiable position depending on Washington’s view of its national interests,” writes Walter Pincus in The Washington Post. “Washington’s shifting positions on nonproliferation are noticed.” http://owl.li/au2M9

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: ‘Oxymoron of the day courtesy of Heritage Foundation president Ed Feulner: "the sanity of comprehensive missile defense"’ http://owl.li/atVsf