On the radar: Report shows Iran ramping up enrichment; Centrifuge struggles continue; Smarter strategy, budget savings; Deciphering Iran’s mixed signals; Bomber program underway; and DoD on nuclear targeting.

February 27, 2012 | Edited by Mary Kaszynski

By the numbers - The IAEA’s latest report indicates Iran tripled its production of 20% enriched uranium at Natanz and Fordow facilities, installed an additional 8,000 centrifuges at both facilities, and increased the number of centrifuges enriching by 50%. More details in this ISIS report. (pdf) http://owl.li/9jzP0

Bottom lineFrom the Arms Control Association analysis: ”The Feb. 24 report suggests that Iran is continuing to make steady progress expanding its enrichment capabilities, but it does not identify any breakthroughs.” http://owl.li/9jzQn

Centrifuge setbacks - Iran may be stepping up uranium enrichment, but its use of outdated centrifuges indicates that it is still struggling with advanced centrifuge technology, experts told Reuters’ Fredrik Dahl. “Iran unveiled a third-generation model two years ago and then never said more about it," IISS’ Mark Fitzpatrick said. "Now it says it has a fourth-generation model, which is probably a variation of the problematic second-generation machines." Whether the delays are due to a lack of resources or design problems is unclear. http://owl.li/9jzRI

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Matching resources to threats - “In an era in which our most serious threats are terrorism, weapons proliferation and cyberattack, it would be irresponsible not to evaluate whether maintaining a large nuclear arsenal is relevant to addressing those threats, and whether some of the hundreds of billions spent on that large arsenal would be better spent on other defense priorities,” writes Maj. Gen. Paul Monroe in Politico. http://owl.li/9jzWD

Decoding Iran’s Signals - Last week, Iran announced a nuclear achievement (increasing enrichment speeds at Qom) while also renewing its willingness to return to P5+1 talks. “These two actions might seem contradictory, but actually Iran’s short-term strategy is clear: Iran’s wants to talk now, but from a position of strength,” writes Geneive Abdo in CNN’s Global Public Sphere.

--The need to decipher Tehran’s mixed signals can make negotiations frustrating, but the alternative to talks - a military strike - would be disastrous, Adbo concludes. http://owl.li/9jAiS

Another interpretation - While analysts note Iran’s struggles to develop advanced centrifuges, others have a different take on the IAEA report. “Add it up any way you like: Iran is starting to race to reach a breakout point at which the international community will be unable to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons, short of a massive American military strike,” write Frederick Kagan and Maseh Zarif in The Wall Street Journal. http://owl.li/9jzZA

--The WSJ editorial board has a similar view: “What will it take to persuade the U.S. intelligence community that Tehran's nuclear intentions aren't exactly peaceful?” they ask. http://owl.li/9jAcM

Intel quote - Testifying before the Senate just last week, DNI Clapper said that the Intelligence Community sees Iran as keeping its nuclear options option, “but we don’t believe they have actually made the decision to go ahead with a nuclear weapon.” http://owl.li/9jAgg

Smart nuclear reductions - “America’s nuclear posture no longer needs to be death by annihilation; there is no “winning’’ nuclear war, and that hardly seems a radical notion,” writes Juliette Kayyem in the Boston Globe. “A reduction of nuclear weapons would have almost no impact on the most pressing nuclear issues of our time: nuclear proliferation by unsavory nations and nuclear terrorism.” http://owl.li/9jAmz

Bomber program underway - The new bomber program is "underway," Pentagon officials say, but questions about the program costs and capabilities remain. AOL Defense’s Colin Clark writes, “So, we have a system that's "underway," is secret and about which we know very little other than it will be amazing and be relatively cheap, somehow. Hmmm.”  http://owl.li/9jApU

Nuclear targeting - “Although it is true that portions of the U.S. nuclear triad are capable of rapid execution upon authorization from the President, a robust system of safeguards and procedures is in place to prevent the accidental or unauthorized launch of a U.S. nuclear weapon,” Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy James Miller said in response to a congressional questions on nuclear targeting and policy guidance. The transcript of the hearing on New START implementation is available from FAS. http://owl.li/9jBXz