Costly Nuclear Programs Continue

On the radar: Pincus on nuclear costs; Cartwright: attacking Iran won’t solve anything; Learning from Iraq; No decision on North Korea talks; Putin on the military option; Israeli leaders in Washington; and Previewing the Iranian elections.

February 28, 2012 | Edited by Mary Kaszynski

Nuclear modernization adds up- Claims that nuclear modernization isn’t moving fast enough are off-base, Walter Pincus writes in The Washington Post. In fact, modernization for all three legs of the nuclear triad is moving forward in the 2013 budget.

--The budget includes $565 million in R&D for the Ohio-class sub, $292 million for the new nuclear bomber (to increase to $2.7 billion in 2017), and $11.7 million for analysis for a new ICBM.

--Pincus also pushed back against the claim that nuclear arsenal cuts would force a shift from a targeting shift: “Nuclear weapons are terror weapons. If any are ever used again, civilians will bear the brunt of the attack, no matter what the ‘target.’” http://owl.li/9l75l

Cartwright on the military option - Neither the U.S. nor Israel could stop Iran from building a nuclear weapon if it decides to do so, former JCS Vice Chair Gen. James Cartwright said Monday. “The intellectual capital still exists. We could certainly bomb the place, but we don’t know where everything is with any kind of certainty.” http://owl.li/9l86X

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Defining redlines - President Obama may use his speech at the AIPAC conference this Sunday to clarify U.S. redlines on Iran and what it means to keep “all options on the table,” Carol Lee and Jay Solomon report for the Wall Street Journal. http://owl.li/9l842

Dialing back Iran rhetoric - The politics and rhetoric on Iran “are all too reminiscent of the shameful campaign to drag us into Iraq,” write Jamal Abdi and Trita Parsi in The Hill. “Time exists for diplomacy to work, but not if we continue to allow political tricks or meekness to sabotage diplomacy and prevent us from securing our vital national security interests.” http://owl.li/9l8ep

No decision on North Korea talks - “The U.S. State Department on Monday said a determination has yet to be made on whether to hold additional discussions with North Korea on its nuclear weapons program and requests for food assistance,” Global Security Newswire reports. http://owl.li/9l99k

Putin on Iran - “The consequences [of a military strike on Iran] will be disastrous. It is impossible to imagine the true scope of this turn of events,” writes former (and future?) Russian president Putin in a Financial Timesop-ed on the importance of US-Russia economic ties. http://owl.li/9l9vN

Israel-US talks - Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak is in Washington this week and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu next week for talks with US officials on Iran. Adding to the tension, AP reports, is that Israeli officials say they won't warn the U.S. if they decide to launch a pre-emptive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities.

--A grain of salt from @MicahZenko: “Israeli officials now say they won't warn US if they attack Iran...which I wrote 2 1/2 yrs ago: http://bit.ly/jmHXgb”

Economic consequences - Targeted military action would likely sustain high oil prices and undermine global economic recovery; a wider regional conflict sparked by a targeted strike would cause a double-dip recession, according to an Oxford Analytica analysis. http://owl.li/9l89g

Radar goes online - U.S. military officials have confirmed that the long-range radar in Turkey is now operational, Glocal Security Newswire reports. http://owl.li/9l8V5

Upcoming Iranian elections - Iran’s parliamentary elections, the first since the contested presidential elections of 2009, on March 2nd are a precursor of the 2013 presidential elections, Farideh Farhi said in a CFR interview. Things to watch for include voter turnout and the power struggle among conservative factions. http://owl.li/9l4I0