Iranian Technical Difficulties Raise Questions About Enrichment Capabilities

We are happy to serve you a daily summary of the day's top nuclear policy stories each morning, with excerpts from the stories in bullet form.

Stories we're following today:

Technical Setbacks Cause Iran to Falter in Push to Enrich Uranium, Report Says - Washington Post [link]

• Iran is experiencing surprising setbacks in its efforts to enrich uranium, according to new assessments that suggest that equipment failures and other difficulties could undermine that nation's plans for dramatically scaling up its nuclear program.
• Former U.S. officials and independent nuclear experts say continued technical problems could also delay -- though probably not halt -- Iran's march toward achieving nuclear-weapons capability, giving the United States and its allies more time to press for a diplomatic solution. 
• Now a new assessment, based on three years of internal data from U.N. nuclear inspections, suggests that Iran's mechanical woes are deeper than previously known. At least through the end of 2009, the Natanz plant appears to have performed so poorly that sabotage cannot be ruled out as an explanation, according to a draft study by David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS). 
• The ISIS study showed that more than half of the Natanz plant's 8,700 uranium-enriching machines, called centrifuges, were idle at the end of last year and that the number of working machines had steadily dropped -- from 5,000 in May to just over 3,900 in November. Moreover, output from the nominally functioning machines was about half of what was expected, said the report, drawing from data gathered by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog.
• A separate, forthcoming analysis by the Federation of American Scientists also describes Iran's flagging performance and suggests that continued failures may increase Iran's appetite for a deal with the West. Ivan Oelrich, vice president of the federation's Strategic Security Program, said Iranian leaders appear to have raced into large-scale uranium production for political reasons.
• Note: ISIS and FAS are Ploughshares grantees.

Iran Claims Nuclear Gain as Protesters Clash - New York Times [link]

• As security forces clashed with his opponents, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran was quoted on Thursday as saying his country had produced a first batch of uranium enriched to a level of 20 percent, taunting the West by declaring that if Tehran wanted to build a nuclear bomb, it would say so.
• Mr. Ahmadinejad chose a major political event — the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution — to announce what he depicted as significant progress in his country’s nuclear program. The setting reflected the central role played by Iran’s nuclear program in domestic politics as Tehran confronts its worst political crisis since the fall of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi in 1979.
• As he spoke, opposition Web sites carried reports of a crackdown on antigovernment protesters as the anniversary celebrations unfolded, with accounts of gunfire, tear gas and attacks on opposition leaders. Videos posted online showed protesters calling for the release of political prisoners and carrying green banners — the color of the opposition — through the streets.
• The confluence of the protests and Mr. Ahmadinejad’s nuclear claims offered a graphic illustration of how much Iran’s foreign policy is being driven by domestic concerns, analysts said.
• Note: For the latest updates on demonstrations in Iran, check out the New York Times Lede blog.
  
  

Activating a North Korea Policy - John Lewis and Robert Carlin in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists [link]

• Precisely because the North Korean issue is not boiling, however, might offer an all-too-rare chance to make progress with Pyongyang. Over the past several months, the North has signaled publicly and privately that it is in engagement mode. In Washington, arguments abound about whether or not this is a stall tactic or a trick, but we'll never know if we don't move ahead with serious and sustained probing of the North's position.
• The fundamental U.S. goal is exactly right: We want North Korea to denuclearize and to return to the international nuclear nonproliferation regime. But stating the goal isn't the same as moving closer to it.
• To do so, we must accomplish things that can help stabilize the situation, make it less likely that the strategic threat from the North will get worse, and begin exploring with Pyongyang a range of ideas for reducing tensions on the Korean Peninsula and in the region. A couple of mid-term steps could include a halt in nuclear testing and long-range ballistic missile launches, along with a complete freeze of the Yongbyon nuclear center, which would involve further decommissioning and a return of international inspectors.

U.S. Vents Frustration at Stalled Arms Control Forum - Reuters [link]

• The United Nations vented frustration on Thursday at the lack of progress at the world's only multilateral disarmament negotiating forum, calling on its members to show more flexibility and get down to work.
• The U.N.-backed Conference on Disarmament (CD) has been unable to launch negotiations to halt global production of nuclear bomb-making fissile material so far this year.
• Pakistan has refused to join a required consensus at the 65-member forum, insisting that it needs to keep open the fissile option to keep pace with its nuclear-armed rival India.
• The talks have "regressed" and risk becoming "irrelevant" if they don't keep in tune with international efforts to cut weapons arsenals, warned Sergei Ordzhonikidze, head of the U.N. in Geneva who serves as secretary-general of the conference.

Air Force Decertifies Nuclear Warheads Unit in NM - Associated Press [link]

• The Air Force has decertified a unit responsible for maintaining an estimated 2,000 nuclear warheads at Kirtland Air Force Base in New Mexico, but top military officials won't discuss specifics of the decision.
• Decertification means members of the 898th Munitions Squadron cannot perform their usual duties with nuclear weapons.
• Air Force officials also declined to disclose what concerns prompted the action, but Ron Fry, a spokesman for the Air Force Materiel Command at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio, said Wednesday the move wasn't prompted by any risk to the public.
• ''This is a business where, as part of the mission, you can't get a score of 99 out of 100 and pass. It's got to be 100 percent,'' Fry said.