U.S. Prepares Sanctions Designed to "Drive a Wedge" Between Revolutionary Guards, Iranian People

We are happy to serve you a daily summary of the day's top nuclear policy stories each morning, with excerpts from the stories in bullet form.

Stories we're following today:

U.S. Eyes New Sanctions Over Iran Nuclear Program - New York Times [link]

• The Obama administration is working on a series of sanctions that would take aim at the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps of Iran, publicly singling out the organization’s vast array of companies, banks and other entities in an effort to curb Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
• Senior White House officials described what they said would be a “systematic” effort to drive a wedge between the Iranian population and the Revolutionary Guards, which the West says is responsible for running Iran’s nuclear program and has a record of supporting militant Islamist organizations and cracking down on antigovernment protesters.
• “We have bent over backwards to say to the Islamic Republic of Iran that we are willing to have a constructive conversation about how they can align themselves with international norms and rules and re-enter as full members of the international community,” President Obama said in a news conference on Tuesday. “They have made their choice so far.”

U.S. Unveils Offer to Help Iran Purchase Medical Isotopes - Washington Post [link]

• The United States and other nations seeking to restrain Iran's nuclear ambitions are offering to help the Islamic republic purchase medical isotopes on the international market, administration officials said Tuesday.
• The previously undisclosed proposal came as President Obama told reporters that his administration is "developing a significant regime of sanctions" to impose on Iran. He said that action at the U.N. Security Council, which is currently stymied by China's objections to a fourth round of sanctions on Iran, "will be one aspect of that broader effort."
• U.N. sanctions do not prohibit Iran from obtaining the medical isotopes on the open market, which is how many nations -- including the United States -- get them for medical purposes.
• "Rather than operate a reactor, this would be a more cost-effective and efficient approach," one U.S. official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. There are a handful of key producers around the world, including Russia.

Iran on the Brink - Reza Aslan in The Daily Beast [link]

• Now, on the eve of the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Republic, as Iran braces for what could be the largest and most violent demonstrations since the election that returned Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to power, the country may be on the brink of civil war.
• It will be the first time that pro- and anti-government demonstrations will be going head-to-head since last summer. With neither side backing down, there is every reason to expect a violent clash.
• Meanwhile, Ahmadinejad is trying everything in his power to change the subject. As Michael Adler reports in The Daily Beast, the president announced on Sunday that Iran will begin enriching uranium from between 3.5 percent and 5 percent to 20 percent, a move that experts believe would put the country in a position to reach the 90 percent enrichment level required to weaponize its nuclear program. Ahmadinejad followed up this statement with a promise to build 10 new enrichment plants in the next year.
• More than anything else, these announcements were intended for domestic consumption. With what promises to be a tumultuous and violent national celebration on the horizon, Ahmadinejad is desperate to rally the country behind him using the one issue on which all Iranians, regardless of their politics or piety, agree. 
• Note: Reza Aslan is a member of the Ploughshares Fund Board of Directors.

Biden's Nonproliferation Speech Postponed - Laura Rozen in Politico [link]

• Vice President Joseph Biden's planned speech on the United States's nuclear deterrent capabilities and nonproliferation issues tomorrow at NDU has been postponed because of snow, officials say. It has been rescheduled for next Thursday, February 18th.
• SASC has cancelled its planned hearing tomorrow on the Nuclear Posture Review. (Among the three witnesses, James Miller, Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Policy, who sources have said has taken the lead at DoD in the NPR.)

U.S. Senate Republicans Could Use START to Derail Obama's Disarmament Agenda, Says Arms Expert - Xinhua [link]

• As Democrats do not have a decisive majority in the U.S. Senate, Republicans have the opportunity to hold the successor to the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I) hostage to future obligations or conditions, said Ambassador Thomas Graham, who chairs the Bipartisan Security Group, a coalition of Republican and Democratic experts with experience in diplomacy, law, intelligence and military affairs.
• It is possible that those conditions would make further reductions in U.S. nuclear arsenal more difficult, and/or, make Senate ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) out of reach, said Graham.
• "The (START) ratification process could prove to be very difficult, very complicated and could last a long time," he said. "The Republican senators "could say, 'You don't give us the amendments we want, and we'll block the (START) treaty.'"

The New, 2010 Russian Military Doctrine: The Nuclear Angle - James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) [link]

• On February 5, 2010, after multiple delays, Russia finally published its new Military Doctrine, which replaces an earlier document adopted in 2000. At the same time as he signed the Military Doctrine, President Dmitri Medvedev also signed "The Foundations of State Policy in the Area of Nuclear Deterrence until 2020," which has not yet been made public.
• Contrary to expectations, the new Military Doctrine appears to reduce, at least somewhat, the role of nuclear weapons in Russia's national security policy. Together with the START follow-on treaty that might be signed as soon as in March or April this year, this could strengthen Russia's position at the forthcoming 2010 NPT Review Conference. One also wonders whether this shift in Russian attitude toward nuclear weapons will affect the upcoming Nuclear Posture Review in the United States.
• The most significant change in the language pertaining to nuclear policy is the new criterion for the employment of nuclear weapons. It has become tighter. Whereas the previous, 2000 Doctrine foresaw the resorting to nuclear weapons "in situations critical for [the] national security" of Russia, the 2010 version allows for their use in situations when "the very existence of [Russia] is under threat."