New START Treaty Gaining Bipartisan Ground in Senate

Today's top nuclear policy stories, with excerpts in bullet form.

Stories we're following today: Wednesday, September 15, 2010.

Corker to Support Arms Treaty – Peter Baker in the New York Times blog "The Caucus" [link] 

• The White House appeared to be moving toward bipartisan approval for the New Start treaty in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee despite the fiery election season. Senator Bob Corker, a Tennessee Republican, announced Tuesday that he will vote for the treaty as long as it is accompanied by assurances on missile defense and other issues of concern to Republicans.
• Mr. Corker signed onto a resolution of ratification drafted by Senator Richard G. Lugar, the committee’s senior Republican and a treaty supporter. The resolution does not formally alter the treaty itself but stipulates that the pact would not bind American plans to build missile defense systems beyond a limit on the use of old intercontinental missile silos and expresses a commitment to modernize the current nuclear weapons complex over the next 10 years.
• Senator John F. Kerry, Massachusetts Democrat and the committee chairman, has been working closely with Mr. Lugar to assuage Republican concerns. Mr. Kerry needs only a majority vote from the committee to advance the treaty to the floor, but because ratification requires a two-thirds vote of the entire Senate, he needs at least eight Republicans to approve the pact.

Ratify the New Start Treaty – Editorial from the New York Times [link]

• After 21 Senate hearings and briefings, the Foreign Relations Committee is scheduled to vote on Thursday on the New Start treaty.
• Failure to ratify will undermine Washington’s credibility as it presses other wannabes — Iran and North Korea to start — to drop their nuclear ambitions.
• The treaty has been endorsed by a bipartisan list of foreign policy figures, including Henry Kissinger, George Shultz, James Baker, Sam Nunn, William Perry and James Schlesinger. All three leaders of the nation’s nuclear laboratories and seven former commanders of nuclear forces also are calling for ratification. These are not people known for weakening the country’s defenses.
• Failure to ratify this treaty would be hugely costly for American credibility and security. It would mean that the United States will have far less information about Russia’s nuclear plans. And it would mean no further reduction for the foreseeable future in the 20,000 nuclear weapons still in the two countries’ arsenals.

A Faith Perspective on Arms Treaty – Joseph E. Lowery and Jonathan Merritt
in in the Atlanta Journal Constitution [link]

• There are over 20,000 nuclear weapons in existence worldwide that threaten the lives of our children and the children of our global neighbors. On average, each one has 30 times the destructive power of the Hiroshima bomb.
• Russia and the United States hold 95 percent of the global total, and we need to continue the process initiated by President Ronald Reagan of verifiable, bilateral reductions in our stockpiles.
• As Georgians, we can play an important role. Sen. Johnny Isakson is positioned to make a crucial difference with the committee’s scheduled vote on New START Thursday. He is currently undeclared. But Isakson — like us — is a person of faith, which is why we are appealing to him to begin applying those faith principles to this issue.
• New START has attracted significant support from faith communities, including the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, the World Evangelical Alliance, the National Council of Churches and the Two Futures Project, among other groups. It is even consistent with existing resolutions of the conservative Southern Baptist Convention, which support “mutually verifiable” steps toward disarmament.
• Faith-filled public servants like Isakson must still exhibit the same independent, informed, and compassionate qualities that first vaulted them into higher office.

US Envoy for North Korea Talks Visits Beijing – Stephanie Ho from Voice of America [link]

• Ambassador Stephen Bosworth arrived in Beijing Wednesday, as part of growing international efforts to end North Korea's nuclear programs.
• China, which hosts the six-party talks, has joined North Korea in calling for a speedy resumption of the stalled dialogue.
• The U.S. envoy spoke with officials in South Korea and Japan before heading to China, his last stop.
• He told reporters in Tokyo that Pyongyang also must show what he described as "significant progress towards denuclearization" before Washington would be willing to discuss lifting international sanctions imposed on North Korea last year.

Measures are in place to track Iran's nuclear ambitions – Peter Crail in the Washington Post [link]

• For a "final push" to reach fruition, Iran would need to enrich its 2,800 kilograms of low-enriched uranium to weapons grade. Even though Tehran does appear to want a secret facility to carry out that enrichment, its low-enriched uranium is still under safeguards. Cameras provide real-time monitoring, seals indicate any tampering, and unannounced visits by inspectors throughout the year provide a thorough accounting of the material.
• Iran keeps getting caught building secret facilities. Its attempt to construct a clandestine plant near Qom was discovered last year, and Tehran appears to have lost interest in completing the facility.
• Shedding light on Iran's nuclear program has made it more costly and time-consuming for Iran to achieve a nuclear weapons capability. In the event of a military strike against Iran, however, that light would go dark, and uncertainties about Iran's capabilities would only increase.
• Note: Peter Crail is an analyst at the Arms Control Association, a Ploughshares Fund grantee.

A View From the Dark Side

Israel Likely to Strike Iran – Bryant Jordan in DoD Buzz [link]

• Charles Krauthammer... made this prediction to DoD Buzz during his appearance at the annual Air & Space Conference sponsored by the Air Force Association this week at the National Harbor in Maryland. In an address to a ballroom filled mostly with Airman, including Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz, Krauthammer said the Israelis will feel compelled to attack Iran.
• Israel will probably attack Iran to keep it from developing a nuclear bomb, but it will try to do it without making the U.S. an accomplice, a Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist and Israeli advocate says.
• Asked about the consequences to American forces about an Iran attack from Iraqi airspace, Krauthammer said the Saudis will consent to the over flight, albeit unofficially, and then pretend they didn’t know it was happening. “That’s the cute thing about this,” he told Military​.com. “They’re [the Israeli’s} are not going to go over Iraq because that would embarrass the U.S. The Saudis will give them a corridor and they’ll be asleep that morning.”
• But the U.S., with close ties to a number of Arab states and troops on the ground in both Iraq and Afghanistan, has concerns about the consequences of an Israeli attack if the U.S. is implicated.