Spy Chief to Brief Senate on New START

Today's top nuclear policy stories, with excerpts in bullet form.

Stories we're following today: Wednesday, September 29, 2010.

US Spy Chief to Brief Senators on Russia Nuclear Treaty – AFP [link]

• US spy chief James Clapper will brief senators Wednesday on intelligence issues tied to a landmark nuclear treaty with Russia, amid worries about Moscow's compliance, a lawmaker said Tuesday.
• Republicans have concerns about the agreement and "we'll raise those in the closed hearing" said Senator Kit Bond, the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee.
• The US Senate is expected to vote on ratifying the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) after November elections that are expected to deal a blow to President Barack Obama's Democratic allies in the congress.
• Lawmakers were tight-lipped about the details at the time, though Bond warned in a statement about "the treaty's lack of verification necessary to detect Russian cheating."
• The Senate Foreign Relations Committee endorsed the agreement in a 14-4 vote on September 16 even after one of the panel's Republican members, Senator James Risch, said the US intelligence community had shared "troubling" new information with lawmakers.

North Korea's "First" Family Readies for Succession – Jack Kim and Jeremy Laurence in Reuters [link]

• After months of speculation, the state KCNA news agency announced early on Wednesday that the untested Kim Jong-un, thought to be in his late 20s, had been made second in command to his father at the ruling Workers' Party's powerful Central Military Commission.
• Rising with him were the ailing Kim Jong-il's sister and her husband, creating a powerful triumvirate ready to take over the family dynasty that has ruled North Korea since its founding after World War Two.
• "It is another step toward a new power structure which will consist of Kim Jong-un, a young and inexperienced dictator, and two people -- his aunt and her husband -- who will be making all real political decisions while mentoring the young leader," said Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at Kookmin University.
• The young Kim, whose existence has been a secret even in North Korea until this week, was the previous day made a general in one of the world's largest armies. He was also appointed a Central Committee member at the biggest political meeting in the impoverished state for 30 years.
• But regional powers will be watching for any signs of a change in the policies which have driven the North's economy to near ruin and potential collapse. That would put a huge burden on China and, especially South Korea, which would end up with much of the cost of absorbing a likely flood of refugees.
• They will also be looking for any change in the reclusive state's efforts to build a nuclear arsenal that has been central to forcing aid out of the outside world even though it has meant sanctions have largely cut it off from the global economy.

Why is Pakistan Stalling on Disarmament? – Colum Lynch for Foreign Policy [link]

• Last week, U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon took Pakistan to the diplomatic equivalent of the woodshed, organizing a high-level New York disarmament conference where foreign ministers and other dignitaries excoriated Islamabad for blocking international negotiations aimed at banning the production of nuclear weapons fuel.
• Pakistan, which did not speak at the New York meeting, maintains that it needs to reserve the right to produce nuclear weapons fuel to catch up with its atomic rival, India, which it believes possesses a larger stockpile.
• "We were ready to roll up our sleeves and get to work on the complicated and difficult negotiations for an FMCT," Gary Samore, President Obama's special assistant on nuclear disarmament, told the U.N. conference Friday. "Unfortunately, it was not to be. Instead, a single country -- a good friend of the United States -- changed its mind and has blocked the CD from implementing its work plan."
• Ten states -- Australia, Austria, Norway, Japan, Canada, Mexico, Ireland, the Netherlands, the United States, and Uruguay -- have said publicly that the time is nearing to try something new, either by abandoning the conference's current form or beginning negotiations in the U.N. General Assembly

U.S. Policy Not Factored in Arms Sales, Report Shows – Bloomberg News [link]

• The United States authorized as much as $37 billion of arms sales to Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf nations over five years without always documenting the potential effect on foreign policy and national security, government investigators found.
• "As arms transfer authorizations increase to this part of the world, the U.S. government needs to ensure that it reviews requests" for their impact on foreign policy and national security, the GAO concluded in a report obtained by Bloomberg News.
• Among the considerations required by federal law for arms transfers to the region are the capacity of the U.S. defense industry, the U.S. pledge to maintain Israel's military edge in the region, protection of human rights and safeguarding of sensitive technologies.

US Senators Urge Sanctions on Chinese Firms in Iran – AFP [link]

• The United States should punish Chinese and Turkish firms reportedly providing Iran with refined petroleum products, two senior US senators urged Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Tuesday.
• Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer and Republican Senator Jon Kyl, his party's number-two leader in the chamber, called on Clinton in a letter to "promptly" enforce a US law aimed at denying Iran access to world gasoline markets.
• US lawmakers have bitterly complained that Chinese firms have taken the place of European rivals leaving the Iranian market, undermining international sanctions aimed at halting Tehran's suspect nuclear program.
• "The window to stop the Iranian regime from obtaining a nuclear weapons capability through sanctions is rapidly closing," [the senators] warned.

View From the Dark Side

What Nuclear Gaming Tells Us About New START – Baker Spring and Peter Brookes for the Heritage Foundation [link]

• President Barack Obama believes that U.S. nuclear disarmament is the sort of leadership by example that can help to rid the world of nuclear weapons. Reducing nuclear warheads and delivery systems under New START is a key component of his “road to zero” effort to achieve the total worldwide elimination of nuclear weapons.
• [However] as Heritage experts and other informed analysts argue, will this treaty and the President’s approach to reducing the nuclear threat actually contribute to the proliferation of nuclear weapons?
• To test the underlying hypothesis of the Administration’s arms control strategy, The Heritage Foundation conducted a series of nuclear gaming exercises in late 2009.
• Three different games, or scenarios, were played by a group of policy and technical experts not only in the field of nuclear proliferation, but also in regional, country, and alliance issues.
• The first game scenario followed the strategy mapped out by President Obama, assuming a U.S. policy of nuclear disarmament with the hope of completely eliminating nuclear weapons across the globe. This scenario proved to be the most destabilizing, resulting in a nuclear conflict.
• The second scenario was similar to the Cold War, in which both sides pursued offensive nuclear weapons but were restrained from using them because of the theory of mutually assured destruction (MAD), which would have resulted in nuclear annihilation for both sides. Under this scenario, global stockpiles of nuclear weapons increased in a new nuclear arms race.
• In the third and final game, the U.S. pursued a policy of “protect and defend” for itself and its allies, relying on a mix of offensive nuclear weapons, deterrence, and robust defensive systems such as missile defenses, which secured America from ballistic missile attack. While nuclear disarmament was not achieved, there was no nuclear arms race or nuclear conflict.