Panetta: Iran Developing a Capability, not a Weapon

On the radar: Panetta on Iran; Fordo now enriching; Nuclear guidance process; Doomsday clock; Scaling back nuclear plans; Keeping the nuclear status quo; Designs for the next bomber; China-ROK summit; and Navy rescues Iranian fishermen from Pirates.

January 9, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Quote - “Are they trying to develop a nuclear weapon? No. But we know that they’re trying to develop a nuclear capability. And that’s what concerns us. And our red line to Iran is, do not develop a nuclear weapon. That’s a red line for us,” said Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta yesterday on Face the Nation. http://owl.li/8mXog

Fordo online - Iran has begun enriching uranium at its underground Fordo facility near the city of Qom, AP reports. Iran announced months ago that it would use the facility to produce 20 percent enrich uranium. The underground facility is built to withstand possible airstrikes.

--How do we know the facility is enriching? AP’s sources based their information on recent IAEA inspections of the facility. http://owl.li/8mXqF

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New nuclear guidance - “The Obama administration is updating the guidance that will lead to the creation of a new U.S. nuclear war plan and determine the size and structure of U.S. nuclear forces,” writes Stephen Young in an update on the process and state of play for the new nuclear guidance.

--Process: Sometime in the next month, the President will review a Pentagon-led study of options for implementing the Nuclear Posture Review. The president will use that study to develop and issue new policy guidance to the military on the use of nuclear weapons. Then the Pentagon goes about crafting a new target set, war plan, and revised force levels. http://owl.li/8mXtf

Doomsday Clock - It is six minutes to midnight now, but will it stay that way? The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists will announce tomorrow whether its iconic Doomsday Clock will move closer to or further from midnight. Watch the minute hand in person tomorrow at 1 pm at the AAAS auditorium in DC. RSVP and details here. http://owl.li/8mY4w

No Need for All These Nukes - “ Absent new action, Washington will remain frozen in a costly cold war posture,” writes Philip Taubman in The New York Times. His recommendations for cutting costs and updating U.S. nuclear strategy: cut the nuclear arsenal, “scale back nuclear war-fighting plans so they are relevant to contemporary threats,” remove most ICBMs from high alert and drop bomber leg of the triad. http://owl.li/8mXGT

--Taubman’s analysis is “what many people in Washington think about our outdated nuclear policy, but few say,” Joe Cirincione writes in the Huffington Post. Joe’s six key takeaways from Taubman’s analysis include: the U.S. could go below 1,500 warheads without risking national security; cutting nuclear forces will make the U.S. a more credible world leader; and there is strong bipartisan support for reshaping nuclear policy. http://owl.li/8mXwo

Conservative view of guidance review - “At what point does this shrinking U.S. deterrent lose credibility, stretching so thin that it tears?” asks Mark Davis at The Weekly Standard. Soon, he asserts, because of China’s tunnels, Iran’s nuclear program, and regional proliferation. The author advocates a “pause and plateau” on any future reductions. http://owl.li/8mY1R

The next bomber - The Air Force has budgeted $3.7 billion over the next 5 years to develop the next generation strategic bomber. What do we know about the design so far?

--“Patents and bid proposals from Northrop Grumman, maker of the B-2, suggest that the new bomber will be narrower than the B-2 but maintain the familiar flying wing design, which reduces radar reflection by minimizing hard edges,” reports Popular Science. http://owl.li/8mYbV

Hu and Lee talk Kim - The Presidents of South Korea and China held a summit today, agreeing to work together to achieve peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula in their first summit since Kim Jon Il’s death. “Beyond that, however, their priorities diverged. China dislikes even talking in detail about its North Korea ally with other countries, seeing it as an invitation to meddling,” reports AP. http://owl.li/8mYbV

Iranian fishermen rescued - “Just days after Iranian and American military officials traded warnings over a U.S. Navy vessel's departure from the Persian Gulf, the United States Navy has rescued 13 Iranian fishermen and their fishing dhow from Somali pirates in the north Arabian sea.” Laura Rozen reports. http://owl.li/8mYhU