Sanctions: Risks and Effects

On the radar: Economic effects of and reactions to Iran sanctions; Navy to add $715 million sub wharf; an Offramp for Iran; Nuclear policy and the new defense strategy; Problems with GOP toughness toward Iran; DPRK-Japan Diplomacy; the Clock is still ticking; and Kim goes Dukakis-ing.

January 10, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Effects of sanctions - Will the Iran sanctions spark an international oil crisis? “It's a conceivable, if remote, possibility,” writes The Atlantic’s Jordan Weissmann. “The more successful the U.S. is in pressing these sanctions, the more perilous it could become for the world economy.”

--Takeaways from his primer on the sanctions: the CBI sanctions don’t go into effect for six months, but include waiver provisions. For sanctions to work, the US needs international support, and China’s participation is still a big question mark. And “in a military conflict over the straits, all bets would be off.” http://owl.li/8onZa

New Sub Wharf - The Cold War ended two decades ago. You would not know it by looking at the nuclear submarine base in Bangor, WA. As they did before the Soviet Union dissolved, the base’s eight subs do three patrols a year, leaving 3 subs on alert at any given time. Now the Navy wants to add a $715 million munitions wharf to accommodate upgrades to the submarines’ missiles. The Seattle Times reports.

--Things to ask before spending $715 million on a second wharf: “How many subs are going to be operating at the base in the future?” From Hans Kristensen. http://owl.li/8oob4

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Offramp for Iran - Before taking drastic military action against Iran, the Obama administration “should, once again, attempt to show Iran the possibility of a different future, one in which it is allowed to rejoin the community of nations,” writes Jefferey Goldberg in Bloomberg.

--”A war with Iran could be a disaster for everyone involved, and even those uninvolved. A last attempt at dialogue -- a last attempt to build an offramp for the Iranians -- seems to have fewer downsides than a rush to war.” http://owl.li/8oo1I

Nukes and the defense strategy - The new defense strategic guidance “suggests that the Pentagon is laying the groundwork, albeit cautiously,” for smart cuts to costly, outdated nuclear weapons. But the new nuclear guidance and the 2013 budget will determine how deep the cuts actually go. Kingston Reif on the implications of the new strategy. http://owl.li/8oo9B

Lacking rationale for military option - All GOP presidential candidates (except Ron Paul) have endorsed the use of force against Iran to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons. The most troubling aspect of this default position is “the complete absence of any details on how the use of force could accomplish this ambitious objective,” write Micah Zenko and Emma Welch in The LA Times.

--Given the costly lessons from Iraq, it is important for the media and voters to “demand that those running for president clearly articulate a realistic strategy for preventing an Iranian bomb before placing all options on the table." http://owl.li/8oo4d

DPRK-Japan diplomacy - A former Japanese state minister met with a North Korean delegation in Beijing on Monday for talks about abduction issues and restarting intergovernmental negotiations. The two countries have not held intergovernmental talks since August 2008. http://owl.li/8oo7j

Quote - “When we devils get together...it’s like they go crazy,” said Hugo Chavez of the West’s reaction to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s visit to Venezuela. http://owl.li/8oocE

Doomsday Clock - That “relic of the Cold War nuclear arms race” is “still ticking, and it will likely make news today,” writes Bob Scott of the Lafayette, IN, Journal and Courier. The article features a series of interviews showing citizens’ perspectives of the nuclear threat and in which direction the Doomsday Clock might move. http://owl.li/8op7E

Quote - “Just another nuclear-armed Michael Jackson,” writes TIME’s Mark Thompson describing a 50-minute video honoring the birthday of Kim Jong Un, where the new North Korean leader is shown Dukakis-ing in a tank and gallivanting on a horse. http://owl.li/8oofW