The US-North Korea Nuclear Deal

On the radar: DPRK to suspend nuclear work for US food aid; P5+1 talks on the horizon; Why sanctions won’t work; Schwartz on the new bomber; Iran’s calculated response; and Low-cost nuclear repairs.

February 29, 2012 | Edited by Mary Kaszynski

Details - Following the U.S.-DPRK bilateral talks last week, North Korea has agreed to a moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile launches, suspension of nuclear activities (including uranium enrichment) at the Yongbyon facility, and IAEA inspections. The U.S. in turn is finalizing details to provide 240,000 metric tons of food aid.

--Still unclear is when the moratorium will begin, when IAEA inspectors will return, and whether six-party talks will resume, New York Times’ Steven Lee Myers notes. http://owl.li/9mwSw

Important progress - The United States still has profound concerns regarding North Korean behavior across a wide range of areas, but today’s announcement reflects important, if limited, progress in addressing some of these,” the State Department press release says. http://owl.li/9mw14

 

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Next round of Iran talks - The P5+1 states are working on a response to Iran’s offer to resume negotiations, The Guardian reports. The official response is expected to propose talks in Turkey in March. http://owl.li/9mwp7

Counterproductive policy - “The current Western policy is counterproductive in many ways. It is pushing Khamenei in the wrong direction by increasingly cornering him,” writes Ali Vaez in CNN’s Global Public Square. “Khamenei’s hostility towards the U.S. might be irreconcilable, but it is not implacable...The pendulum of animosity has now swung too far towards confrontation. He would welcome a return to equilibrium.”

--”The West should now test Khamenei’s willingness to accept a face-saving compromise,” Vaez concludes. “Although his rhetoric remains bellicose, he might be more amenable to an agreement. [The West should] take this chance to address, at least, its immediate proliferation concerns, such as capping the level of uranium enrichment and number of advanced centrifuges in Iran’s bunker nuclear facilities”. http://owl.li/9mwwq

Iran policy unchanged - “The White House indicated Tuesday that President Obama would resist pressure for a tougher Iran policy coming from Israel and some U.S. lawmakers who argue that Tehran should not be allowed to acquire even the capability to eventually develop a nuclear weapon.” Paul Richter and Christi Parsons report for the LA Times. http://owl.li/9mwsA

Bomber costs - Testifying before the House Armed Service Committee yesterday, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Schwartz addressed concerns about the new nuclear bomber. “We intend to manage this very carefully...We're not going to repeat the B-2 experience with the long-range strike bomber,” he said, adding, “We overdesigned [the B-52]. And that's why it was a billion and a half plus per copy.”

--How the Air Force intends to keep bomber costs down is still unclear, but Schwartz offered a hint: ”We are going to produce a machine where we are disciplined on its requirements... It will have an opportunity to grow over time, but it is not going to be the end-all-be-all the first time it flies.” The hearing webcast and testimony are available here. http://owl.li/9mwyp

Iran’s response - In the event of an Israeli strike, “Iran’s primary goal would be quickly rebuilding — and probably accelerating — its nuclear program, and thus, according to these assessments, it would be likely to try to avoid inviting a punishing second wave of attacks by the United States.” Thom Shanker, Helene Cooper, and Ethan Bronner report for The New York Times.

--To avoid a direct conflict with the US, Iran would likely “would try and keep the United States busy by escalating tensions in Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Iraq and Afghanistan,” Vali Nasr said. Experts note that likely targets would be target petroleum infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, and American personnel overseas. http://owl.li/9mwHE

Quote - Defense Secretary Panetta at yesterday’s Senate Budget Committee hearing: “I think they’re developing a nuclear capability [but] our intelligence makes clear that they haven’t made the decision to develop a nuclear weapon. http://owl.li/9mwJ5

Event - Air Force Comptroller Dr. Jamie Morin talks defense strategy and the 2013 budget. Tomorrow, 10:30am, at the Stimson Center. Details and RSVP here. http://owl.li/9mwL3

”The unsightliness is called rust.” - Photos of rusty pipes at Y-12 National Security Complex have some members of Congress calling for billions of dollars for nuclear facility repairs and upgrades. But according to an investigation by Oak Ridge Environmental Peace Alliance, the repairs could be accomplished easily and at little cost, with materials available in department stores. Mia Steinle at Project on Government Oversight has the story. http://owl.li/9mwO7