What to Expect from the Latest Talks with Iran

On the radar: The latest from Geneva; Pieces of a deal; Outlook; Sen. Corker readies the torpedoes; Upgrading the B61; MEADS tested; and Deterrence pays, twice.

November 7, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

First steps - “World powers began two days of talks with Iran in Geneva on Thursday, hoping to reach a ‘first step’ deal over Tehran's nuclear program, although both sides said a breakthrough was far from certain,” reports Justyna Pawlak and Fredrik Dahl for Reuters.

--"What we're looking for is a first phase, a first step, an initial understanding that stops Iran's nuclear program from moving forward and rolls it back for the first time in decades," said a senior U.S. official before the talks. Full story here. http://reut.rs/16JmPwf

What Iran could get - “In response to a first step agreed to by Iran that halts their program from advancing further, we are prepared to offer limited, targeted, and reversible sanctions relief,” said a senior U.S. official before talks with Iran. http://politi.co/1atJwl5

Outlook - Achieving a compromise with Iran will be difficult. “Hard-liners in Iran may reject a verifiable halt (let alone a reversal) of enrichment; hard-liners in the West may refuse any face-saving offer to Iran that Tehran could claim endorses a ‘right to enrich.’ (The administration doesn’t recognize any such right.) What has been notable in recent weeks, however, has been the convergence toward the elements of possible compromise,” writes David Ignatius about the outlook for nuclear negotiations with Iran. http://wapo.st/1aa0J6v

Spoiler alert - “Emerging legislation from Republican Sen. Bob Corker could block Obama from easing sanctions on Iran and create tougher conditions for reaching an interim deal with Tehran,” reports Josh Rogin for The Daily Beast. http://thebea.st/17PiHM0

Asking for and offering more - “I think the P5-plus-1 ought to go in with as robust a sanctions relief package as they can in order to get the maximum amount out of the Iranians in terms of slowing down and fencing in enrichment,” said former Ambassador Thomas Pickering to The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1bdvAg5

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Who to follow - Events in Geneva are moving pretty fast as the Iran and the P5+1 work toward a deal. To get up to the minute news, here are some key journalists to follow on Twitter: @lrozen @peterson__scott @JasminRamsey @barbaraslavin1.

B61 plans - The U.S. plans to spend more than $10 billion refurbishing the B61 nuclear bomb. Pentagon officials say the tactical nuclear bomb is needed because the original bombs are aging and the new bomb would provide increased capability. Critics say that the expensive project is unnecessary, especially as the Obama Administration works to negotiate reductions in such tactical nuclear weapons.

--"To me, it doesn't make a lot of sense to spend billions of dollars to extend the life of weapons that the president has already said he wants to get rid of," said Tom Collina of the Arms Control Association. Full report from Mathieu Rabechault of AFP. http://bit.ly/1b9tkdg

Tweet - @BrookingsFP: Robert Einhorn evaluates the future of nuclear cooperation in the U.S.–South Korean alliance: http://bit.ly/1hPvRwg

One last shot - “The MEADS missile defense system developed by the United States, Italy and Germany intercepted and destroyed two targets simultaneously in a final test on Wednesday before Washington pulls out of the program,” reports Andrea Shalal-Esa in a fluff piece about a botched missile defense program that Congress has been trying to kill for years. Full piece in Reuters. http://reut.rs/1hPxPg5

Deterrence pays, twice - “Is the Office of Net Assessment, the Pentagon's futurist think-tank, paying $184,000 to a conservative Washington research group for a study on nuclear deterrence that has already been published and is available for free?” Ray Locker reports for USA Today. http://usat.ly/1hm35Wo

Speed reads:

--”U.S.-Iran Thaw Grew From Years Of Behind-the-Scenes Talks” by Jay Solomon and Carol Lee of The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/192eDE7

--”The U.S., Not Iran, Has the Upper Hand in Nuclear Negotiations” by Ray Takeyh for The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/HAdZay

-- “U.S. official: We think Iran wants a nuclear deal -- and fast” reports Karl Penhaul for CNN. http://cnn.it/1a9PkUf

Events:

--”Denying WMD To Terrorists And Other Criminals: A Progress Report” Discussion with Simon Limage, Rick Cupitt, Johan Bergenas and Brian Finlay. Nov. 8 from 3:00-4:00pm at Stimson. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1azP43I

--”Cost and benefits to US strategic interests from UK renewal of Trident.” Discussion with Paul Ingram and Peter Huessy at the Capitol Hill Club. Nov. 12 from 8:00-9:30am. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1aYdFNN

--”The Nuclear Crisis at Plutonium Mountain: Two Journalists' Tale.” Discussion with Eben Harrell and David Hoffman at Harvard’s Belfer Center Library. Nov. 13th from 10:00-11:00am. http://hvrd.me/1cHk6Eg

--”Rethinking U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy.” Discussion with Benjamin Friedman, Christopher Preble, and Laura Odato at B-369 Rayburn House Office Building. Nov. 25th at 12:00pm. http://bit.ly/1bVpEKg