World Powers Narrow on Deal with Iran

On the radar: Sec. Kerry, foreign ministers gather in Geneva; Applauding diplomacy; Sanctions caucus unappeased; The saboteurs; Sub budget shortfall; Creedon to NNSA; Scope, cost and problems with B61; and Once-secret Chinese nuclear base to become theme park.

November 8, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Geoffrey Wilson

Kerry Aims to Close Deal - Secretary of State John Kerry joins fellow foreign ministers from the UK, France, Germany and Russia in Geneva today to help secure a preliminary accord with Iran, reports Reuters. The secretary attempted to temper expectations by saying that there were still important gaps that need to be bridged with Iran on curbing its nuclear program, but also explained that he would meet with Tehran’s foreign minister to try and close an interim deal. http://reut.rs/1fnYMW7

Applauding diplomacy - “A group of 79 prominent national security names and officials have commended President Obama for using ‘diplomacy in an effort to reach agreements with Iran’ over its nuclear weapons program,” reports Kedar Pavgi of Defense One. http://bit.ly/18dd46P

Full letter - “We applaud your decision to use diplomacy vigorously in an effort to reach agreements with Iran, particularly given President Hassan Rouhani's apparent openness to greater transparency and internationally-accepted and verifiable limits on Iran's nuclear program. The hard work of diplomacy begins now. Decades of distrust and lack of contact between the two countries will complicate the task of reaching agreements that will provide us the assurance we require that Iran's nuclear program will be used only for peaceful purposes.”

--”You will undoubtedly face opposition to your decision to engage Iran. We support this new policy and pledge to help our fellow Americans appreciate the ambitious and transformative course you have chosen to build a more peaceful and more cooperative environment in the Middle East. The diplomatic option is the right one at this time in view of the initiatives taken by the Iranian government that were made possible in part by your past policies. We wish you well in this constructive and important new undertaking,” write 79 former ambassadors, officials and senior experts.

--Signers include: Amb. Ryan Crocker, Amb. Wendy Chamberlin, Joe Cirincione, Les Gelb, Rep. Lee Hamilton, Amb. Chris Hill, Amb. John Limbert, Amb. William Luers, Joseph Nye, Amb. Thomas Pickering, Paul Pillar, Amb. Jack Matlock, Jessica T Mathews, Anne-Marie Slaughter, Frank Wisner and many more. http://bit.ly/17jlwGO

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Congress still rattling sanctions - “A threat by the U.S. Congress to slap tough new sanctions on Iran hung over negotiations on Tehran's nuclear program on Thursday, even as diplomats at talks in Geneva voiced optimism an agreement was close,” reports Reuters. http://reut.rs/1befIdc

Who to follow - Events in Geneva are moving pretty fast as the Iran and the P5+1 work toward a deal. To get up to the minute news, here are some key journalists to follow on Twitter: @lrozen @peterson__scott @JasminRamsey @barbaraslavin1.

Spoilers - As negotiators in Geneva are increasingly hopeful of a deal with Iran, “Those dedicated to maintaining perpetual hostility toward the Islamic Republic of Iran, and thus to sabotaging any negotiated agreement that resolves all or part of the issue of Iran's nuclear agreement, are facing their most challenging week in some time...The response of the saboteurs is not to retreat, or even to wait until details of any deal are announced, but instead to redouble their efforts to subvert the process,” writes Paul Pillar in an explanation of the actors looking to scuttle any deal with Iran. Full piece in The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1cICgcW

Tweet - @attackerman: Which one of you taught the Iranians how to troll? nuclearenergy.ir/

Boomer budget - The Navy expected to double its budgets for a new nuclear-armed submarine from FY2013 to FY2014. With Congress unable to pass appropriations bills, the sub budget has been held flat. As a result, the Ohio-class replacement submarine faces a $500 million budget shortfall in FY2014.

--”The big-ticket submarine program has been a concern of both lawmakers and Pentagon officials, as it is set to consume a large portion of the Navy's shipbuilding budget in the coming years...This past May the Navy estimated it will cost $12 billion, in 2013 dollars, to buy the first SSBN(X) in 2012. It pegged the cost of the additional 11 submarines to be roughly $5.4 billion, in fiscal 2010 dollars. Naval officials are working to reduce that $5.4 billion down to $4.9 billion,” writes Emelie Rutherford for Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/1bdsZX3

Nominated - President Obama nominated Madelyn Creedon to take over the role of Principal Deputy Administrator for the National Nuclear Security Administration. Global Security Newswire has the story. http://bit.ly/1hSJOtp

B61 scope - The U.S. is spending roughly $11 billion to upgrade the B61 nuclear bomb and provide it with enhanced military capabilities as part of an aggressive plan to modernize the entire U.S. nuclear arsenal. Critics say this program violates a pledge by President Obama to not build new nuclear weapons, complicate arms control negotiations, and could force some allies in Europe to retain nuclear bombs they have often sought to have removed. Markus Becker of Der Spiegel has the story. http://bit.ly/1bflICD

Tweet - @ctbto_alerts: 56 years ago today: UK's first H-bomb #nuclear test, 1.8 mt, Christmas Island, Pacific Ocean http://bit.ly/17j9MUO

Speed reads:

--IAEA Director General to visit Tehran on Monday. Announcement here. http://bit.ly/1aJlkBq

--”Obama’s Secret Iran Détente” by Josh Rogin of The Daily Beast. http://thebea.st/17S2GVq

Events:

--”Cost and benefits to US strategic interests from UK renewal of Trident.” Discussion with Paul Ingram and Peter Huessy at the Capitol Hill Club. Nov. 12 from 8:00-9:30am. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1aYdFNN

--”The Nuclear Crisis at Plutonium Mountain: Two Journalists' Tale.” Discussion with Eben Harrell and David Hoffman at Harvard’s Belfer Center Library. Nov. 13th from 10:00-11:00am. http://hvrd.me/1cHk6Eg

--”Rethinking U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy.” Discussion with Benjamin Friedman, Christopher Preble, and Laura Odato at B-369 Rayburn House Office Building. Nov. 25th at 12:00pm. http://bit.ly/1bVpEKg

Dessert:

New theme park - In the 1960s, the Red Mountain Command Base was the home of China’s first efforts building a nuclear arsenal. Fifty years after China exploded its first nuclear weapon and almost thirty years after the base closed, China is now turning the area into a propaganda park. “Plans are now afoot to transform this scruffy compound into a 300 million yuan (£30 million) ‘red tourism’ destination. When completed it will boast a Communist-themed shopping precinct, a spa-like resort for weary soldiers and even paddocks where the offspring of visiting cadres can hone their horse-riding skills,” reports Tom Phillips for The Telegraph.

--”Ambitious blueprints for the theme park, which is intended to be completed for next year's 50th anniversary of China's atomic debut, foresee its future as ‘an internationally-acclaimed nuclear travelling site, a peace-themed scenic spot, a national patriotism education base … [and] Xinjiang's number one destination for red tourism.’” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1acz19d