What to Expect from North Korea’s Test(s)

On the radar: Testing rockets and warheads; Our first war with Iran; Negotiating with Khamenei; Disarmament wars; Leap Day misunderstanding; Return to Tinian; Utah for the CTBT; Satellite launch prep; and Atomic draft dodging.

April 11, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Just the FAQ - “North Korea’s Upcoming Space Launch,” from the Center for Nonproliferation Studies. http://owl.li/ad7jx

Acton on North Korea - What does the North’s stand to gain from its satellite launch attempt and possible third nuclear test? James Acton of the Carnegie Endowment explains what to expect and what it might mean.

--Technical reasons for a third nuclear test: “Testing would be helpful to North Korea in miniaturizing its warheads if it has not done so already (and many analysts believe it has not). If radioactive emissions are present, they may give clues about the design—and hence the size—of the device.” http://owl.li/ad7hC

Lessons from our first Iran war - By intervening in the Iran-Iraq war on the side of Iraq, the U.S. engaged in a “bloody if undeclared naval and air war against Iran,” writes Bruce Riedel for Al Monitor. Riedel offers lessons about that first war, as some commentators push for a second war.

--Lessons: The U.S. can expect to be blame for anything that goes wrong in Iran; Iran will not be easily intimidated by America; Ending conflict is much harder than starting one; and We should be careful to weigh allies’ advice. http://owl.li/ad7eI

Welcome to Early Warning - Subscribe to our morning email or follow us on twitter.

--Have a tip? Email earlywarning@ploughshares.org. Want to support this work? Click here.

Will Khamenei Compromise? - “Khamenei is the final arbiter in Iran, but the notion that he is unwilling to negotiate runs contrary to history,” write Reza Marashi and Ali Reza Eshraghi in The National Interest. “He negotiates when his regime’s interests are addressed.”

-- The solution to the standoff, the authors conclude is a ”phased, multilevel diplomatic strategy over the next six months” to address both sides’ interests. http://owl.li/ad7cx

Disarmament wars - “Although the invasion of Iraq was a debacle...another disarmament war – this time against Iran – is taking shape,” writes Jonathan Schell. The drawbacks of a disarmament war are many: “intelligence is at best fuzzy,” red lines are unclear, and “to achieve lasting disarmament, military action would also have to be lasting.”

--“The aim of a disarmament war is to prevent proliferation...But a war to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear arms is probably a quicker and surer route to the same destination,” Schell concludes. http://owl.li/ad72P

Tweet - @defense_news: U.S. Renews Debate Over Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty http://bit.ly/IpEgFv

Misreading Pyongyang - It’s unclear what ultimately caused the fiasco of the Leap Day deal with North Korea. One factor might be that the U.S. did not understand what North Korea sought to achieve through a deal, argues Jeffrey Lewis at Arms Control Wonk.

--Hypothesis: ”It is possible that Pyongyang engaged in this entire process in the first place largely to avoid the sort international reaction [to its planned rocket launch] that, in retrospect, seems unavoidable. That might explain why, having gotten this close, the North Koreans decided to call and see if Obama was bluffing. What would they have to lose?” http://owl.li/ad6WH

Quote - “It’s not clear if anyone appreciates the irony, but Japan wants to help pay for a new U.S. military base on Tinian atoll, a former Imperial Army stronghold from which the atomic bombings of Japan were launched in August 1945,” writes Mark Thompson of TIME. Full story follows. http://owl.li/ad6Ub

CTBT - The NAS report said there is no need for more nuclear tests to ensure the safety and reliability of the US arsenal. Trisha S. Beck, former Representative from Utah, offers another reason for ratifying the CTBT: “Utah has suffered the effects of nuclear weapons testing more than any other state in the nation. We know that preventing nuclear weapons testing in the future is the best way of memorializing those who made the ultimate sacrifice in the past.” http://owl.li/ad6S4

Launch prep - “South Korea and other Asian nations told their airlines and ships to change their routes to avoid the North Korean rocket,” The New York Times reports. http://owl.li/ad6PM

Report: Iran intelligence estimates - While reporting on the latest NIE accurately states that Iran has not yet decided to build a nuclear weapon, it is less clear on the question of Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability, write David Albright and Paul Brannan.

”At the upcoming negotiations between Iran and the P5+1, the priority should be achieving both a set of interim measures that reduce the chance of Iran breaking out and the outlines of a long-term agreement that can establish confidently that Iran will not pursue nuclear weapons.” Full report here. (pdf) http://owl.li/abq1P

Atomic draft dodging - Atomic scientists were not exempt from the draft during WWII. However, the Manhattan Project was so secret that the existence of a secret had to be covered up. Local draft boards, who saw no problem drafting preeminent cyclotron engineers, had to be convinced not to draft involved scientists - without revealing the secret of the Manhattan Project. Alex Wellerstein at Restricted Data has the history. http://owl.li/ad6LQ