When Nuclear Proliferators Fail

On the radar: Iran and bad nuclear management; Nuclear spending and national security priorities; AFA sings a different tune; Making bank at LANL; Nonstrategic compilation; Lessons on negotiating with Iran; Modest progress, an open door; Case for the CTBT; Hill on China-DPRK; and Carroll talks ICBM double standards.

April 20, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Botching the Bomb - Since 1970, most of the states who tried to build a nuclear weapon failed. If Iran decided to go for it, “The slow pace of Iranian nuclear progress to date strongly suggests that Iran could still need a very long time to actually build a bomb -- or could even ultimately fail to do so. Indeed, global trends in proliferation suggest that either of those outcomes might be more likely than Iranian success in the near future,” argues Jacques Hymans in Foreign Affairs.

--Argument behind the trend: “the more a state has conformed to the authoritarian management culture typically found in developing states, the more time it has needed to get its first bomb and the higher its chances of failure.”

--Takeaway: A strike on Iran or its scientists is a bad bet - one likely to convince Iran to actually acquire a nuclear weapons and push its scientists to overcome poor project management. “As shown by the consequences of the Israeli attack on Osiraq, such strikes are liable to unite the state's scientific and technical workers behind their otherwise illegitimate political leadership.” http://owl.li/apBFI

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Redirect the nuclear budget - “If these expenditures were necessary to keep America safe, they would be worth it, but excessive spending on nuclear weapons contributes nothing to our security. Worse, these expenditures siphon money away from more important national security priorities,” Brigadier General Keith Kerr (Ret.) writes in The Hill. http://bit.ly/Jsh2yq

Resistance at AFA- In 2010, the Air Force Association came out in favor of New START. Now that more significant reductions - with implications bomber and ICBM budgets - are being considered, AFA is circling its wagons and warning against moving from the nuclear status quo. Read the full note from AFA president Michael Dunn (pdf). http://owl.li/apBPM

Tweet - @RUSI_org: RUSI ANALYSIS: New Delhi's New Missile: A Watershed for India's Nuclear Arsenal http://bit.ly/JsgUz6

Making bank - Los Alamos Lab director’s salary in 2006: $348,000. Today: $1,081,059.

--The big difference: LANL was managed by nonprofit University of California in 2006. Now managed by a for-profit consortium of contractors. The Albuquerque Journal has the story (wedged behind a paywall). http://owl.li/apBRV

Book - “Tactical Nuclear Weapons and NATO,” from the Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. Free download of the full book (540 pages). Chapters by Pifer, Weitz, Sokov, Lunn, Larsen, Roberts, Chalmers and many more. http://owl.li/apBAT

Quote - “It is important to note that over the past three decades, Iran and the West have negotiated at least 12 times—including my own experiences and those directly related to me by others. In almost all these cases, there were positive results.” Giandomenico Picco, former former Assistant Secretary General of the United Nations for Political Affairs and veteran negotiator with Iran. Read his full story at Al Monitor. http://owl.li/apBN1

Yessables - Iran and the U.S. have different goals heading into negotiations, but parts of their agendas may complement each other enough to allow the two sides to find “yes” in upcoming talks. Ambassador John Limbert sketches out possible goals and room for agreement for Washington and Tehran in Baghdad. From Al Monitor. http://owl.li/apBIR

Opportunity for diplomacy - The Istanbul talks opened a “diplomatic window” with Iran, writes Laicie Olson in The Hill. Moving forward, “each side will need to compromise; this cannot be a zero-sum game.” http://owl.li/apBCu

Time to ratify - “The test-ban treaty is key to a successful U.S. strategy to reduce nuclear dangers. The longer we delay its entry into force, the tougher the nuclear weapons challenge becomes.” Hazel O’Leary on why the case for the CTBT is stronger than ever. http://owl.li/apBzN

China & North Korea - China is losing its patience with North Korea, after the North didn’t respond to China’s pleas to abort the recent rocket test. Noting the souring of relations, Amb. Christopher Hill argues, “China should follow up on its Security Council vote to condemn North Korea’s behavior by shutting down bilateral trade.” From Project Syndicate. http://owl.li/apBVp

Double standard - “There’s certainly an explanation for why the reaction [to the Indian and North Korean missile launches] was different; that doesn’t necessarily justify it,” Ploughshares Fund’s Paul Carroll told CNN International. http://owl.li/apDrr