Kissinger, Scowcroft, and Established Principles for Reductions

On the radar: Kissinger and Scowcroft on reductions; Admin on reductions; Cutting costs to pay for nukes; Buy, fly, fail, & buy more; Five principles for a nuclear deal with Iran; Questioning UPF; and Nork missile not ICBM, nor functional.

April 23, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Considerations for reductions - Commenting on the ongoing Obama administration review of U.S. nuclear force requirements, Henry Kissinger and Brent Scowcroft in The Washington Post stress their “conviction that the goal of future negotiations should be strategic stability and that lower numbers of weapons should be a consequence of strategic analysis, not an abstract preconceived determination.”

--They offer eight key points for governing the nuclear review. Included: review must reassess the force size and structure requirements for stable nuclear deterrence; as reductions continue, countries other than the U.S. and Russia must be part of the dialogue; and reductions must account for developments in missile defenses and conventional strike capabilities. http://owl.li/aspo8

Already considered - Kissinger and Scowcroft have valid points about considerations for U.S. nuclear reductions. That is why the Obama administration specifically addressed their points in the Nuclear Posture Review.

--Daryl Kimball at Arms Control Now shows the congruence between administration statements, policy documents, and Kissinger’s and Scowcroft’s recommendations. Given all these considerations, Kimball notes that changes in U.S. nuclear strategy and reductions with Russia remain “possible and prudent.” http://owl.li/aspq2

Quote - The ongoing nuclear review will “inform the Administration’s policy decisions regarding potential future nuclear weapons reductions while strengthening deterrence of regional adversaries, enhancing strategic stability vis-à-vis Russia and China, and continuing assurance of our allies and partners,” testified Assistant Secretary of Defense Madelyn Creedon last week before the HASC (pdf). http://owl.li/asprM

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Nuclear budget shuffle - Senators Jon Kyl, Bob Corker, and Kelly Ayotte call on Congress to “restore the commitment to nuclear modernization basic to New START” by increasing funding for the nuclear complex over the president’s FY2013 budget request.

--The Senators propose offsetting a nuclear spending increase through “a combination of administrative reforms across the nuclear weapons complex, $125 million transfer authority granted to the defense secretary in the FY2012 National Defense Authorization Act,” and “providing the balance from lesser priorities within the security account.” http://owl.li/aspv3

Holding New START Hostage - House Republicans are expected to try to block New START implementation unless the administration agrees to increase spending on nuclear weapons. The move “threatens to undermine U.S. national security, ignores budget reality, and defies common sense,” write Tom Collina and Daryl Kimball.

--4-point rebuttal to the nuclear spenders’ argument: The FY13 request for nuclear funding, a 5% increase over the FY12 enacted level, is sufficient. There is bipartisan congressional support for cutting CMRR. The Pentagon is preparing a report, as required by the New START Resolution of Approval, on how to address resource shortfalls. And New START is still in US interests. http://owl.li/aspx3

EPAA’s failings - The proposed European missile defense system is plagued with cost overruns and technological problems. Two reports - from the Defense Science Board and the GAO - cast doubt on if the missile defense system has the capability to accomplish its proposed mission. Desmond Butler at AP has the story.

--Cart before horse: “The GAO report said pressure to meet Obama's 2015 deadline to field the second phase of the system has led the Defense Department to order dozens of interceptors even though it's not clear they will work. Testing isn't expected to be completed until next year.” http://owl.li/aspEM

--Full GAO report: “Missile Defense: Opportunity Exists to Strengthen Acquisitions by Reducing Concurrency” http://owl.li/aspL0

5 Principles - For a nuclear deal with Iran, keep these 5 things in mind, writes Ploughshares Fund’s Joel Rubin: 1) War talk is counterproductive to our strategic interests. 2) Sanctions work best if they are in the service of diplomacy.

--3) To get Iran to come clean, we must be willing to close the nuclear file. 4) Iran has the right to a verifiably peaceful nuclear program. 5) Nuclear negotiations will not solve all of our concerns about Iran. http://owl.li/aspMZ

Tweet - @rethink_media: “Experts- negotiations remain best course to prevent #Iranian bomb, avoid another Middle East #war bit.ly/IgMwaH”

UPF safety and costs - Funding is about to increase for a new, $7.5 billion Uranium Processing Facility at Oak Ridge, TN. However, the Defense Nuclear Safety Board is critical of the safety controls in the UPF design. Meanwhile, the Government Accountability Office has raised a flag that NNSA lacks the ability to manage the project and its costs.

--Given the questionable safety controls and skyrocketing costs, Ralph Hutchison in the Knoxville News Sentinel argues Congress should put the brakes on the facility. http://owl.li/aspPH

North Korea’s new “missile” - A new missile got trotted out during a parade in Pyongyang last week. “The missile—even if real—is too small to be an ICBM using any of the technology North Korea appears to have,” assesses David Wright at All Things Nuclear. http://owl.li/aspSY