Disclosure of Nuclear Numbers Reveals Accuracy of NGO Experts
Shortly after nuclear weapons sleuths Tom Cochran and Bill Arkin published their unauthorized estimate of the size of the U.S. arsenal in 1984, they got a call from alarmed U.S. officials, according to the Washington Post. "They called us over and wanted to know where we got the numbers," Cochran recalls of a time when almost everything about history's deadliest weapon -- including how many the United States possessed -- was classified secret. (Cochran's work at the Natural Resources Defense Council on nuclear weapons and security has been supported for over twenty years by Ploughshares Fund.)
America's official nuclear silence ended Monday when the Obama administration not only disclosed the number of U.S. nuclear weapons available for use in wartime -- 5,113 as of Sept. 30 -- but surprised many by also publishing weapons totals for each year dating to 1962. The U.S. disclosure didn't just strike a blow for transparency in the global debate over nuclear weapons. It revealed the remarkable accuracy of the effort by Cochran, Arkin and others, who labored for 30 years to pull back the veil that surrounded these weapons.
"We were pretty close all along -- sometimes right on the button," said Robert S. Norris, another of the nuclear number detectives. Their most recent estimate was 5,100, or 13 weapons fewer than the number the government published Monday.
Washington Post
