Much Ado About Not Much: The House Republican Resolution on New START
Kingston Reif, the Deputy Director of Nuclear Non-Proliferation at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, writes, “The approach of some vocal Republicans to the 'New START' negotiations goes something like this: Suggest a dozen different ways that a new arms control agreement with Russia could be detrimental to U.S. security without actually opposing a new arms control agreement with Russia.” A resolution proposed by Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) is the latest in a long list of efforts on the part of some Republicans to define New START as bad for U.S. interests. Arguments include our ability to deter China and other would-be nuclear powers; to provide Congress with reports on both negotiations with Russia and China’s nuclear forces; to complete the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) before signing an agreement; and to ensure that a new agreement does not constrain U.S. missile defenses.
Reif diminishes each claim as follows. First, China has only 240 total weapons and only 25-40 missiles capable of striking the U.S., far from the U.S. total. Max Bergman was more succint: “North Dakota could deter China.” Second, a report on negotiations with Russia should be doable once they are completed, as should a report on China’s nuclear forces, although such estimates already exist. Third, the Pentagon has repeatedly stated that it is satisfied that the NPR has sufficiently informed the negotiations. Finally, the Obama administration has already made it crystal clear that it will protect missile defense systems. Jeffrey Lewis of Arms Control Wonk adds that the missile defense system even under the Bush Administration was sized so as “not be a threat to China.”
Nukes of Hazard, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation
